Sunday, October 19, 2025

Rage and Silence From the So-Called Peace Camp

 While most of the world looked hopefully on the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, two of the most vocal callers for a ceasefire reacted either with rage or silence. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/10/free-at-last-now-hard-part-begins.html ) Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) applauded Hamas' slaughter of innocent Palestinians and further encouraged them to remain armed. Hopefully their fellow travelers in the West will realize that they have been conned and that the western media will wake up to the fact that Hamas has no compunction about killing their fellow Palestinians. 

Instead of raging at the ceasefire, Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) has been remarkably silent. Recall that this organization attempted to shutdown Grand Central Station in the name of a ceasefire. Well, they got their ceasefire. Then why the silence? The answer is simple. JVP is fundamentally a left wing group seeking the destruction of Israel as a  Jewish state. Israel winning is anathema to them. They care more about their solidarity with the Left then with the Jewish people and it why they will remain silent about Hamas killing Palestinians.  Shame on them.


Monday, October 13, 2025

Free at Last: Now the Hard Part Begins

After two long years Hamas has finally freed the last twenty live hostages left in the dungeons of Gaza. With the captives being redeemed and an Israeli-Hamas cease fire in place, there is much to celebrate. Nevertheless, we should not lose sight of the very difficult tasks ahead. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-israel-hamas-war-is-peace-at-hand.html )


As I write this Hamas gunmen are slaughtering their local Palestinian opponents. This has to stop and if Gaza is to be rebuilt by the proposed middle eastern consortium, Hamas will have to be disarmed. That will not be easy and what Arab state will allow their soldiers to be killed in a Gaza peace keeping mission?


In order for this to work is for the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Türkiye have to put constant pressure on both Hamas and Israel to maintain the momentum of today. There are few hopeful signs. It appears that there is a new openness to expanding the Abraham Accords and that Indonesia, the country with the largest Muslim population, is prepared to commit troops. President Trump and his team have created the framework for a new beginning in the middle east; let us hope they will have the patience to follow through in the days to come.

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

My Review of Yaakov Katz's and Amir Bohbot's "While Israel Slept"

Confirmation Bias


Veteran Israeli journalists Yaakov Katz and Amir Bohbot have put together a well-sourced and deeply researched indictment of the vaunted Israeli intelligence services and Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu in their failure to anticipate the deadly Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. In the bluntest of terms, they were guilty of confirmation bias in which their tunnel vision refused to see the signs of the coming attack by Hamas.

 

They thought Hamas was interested in growing the Gaza economy and the intelligence services had their attention centered on Iran, Hezbollah, and the West Bank. They refused to believe reports coming from the Gaza watchers on the border and, in fact, they did not have a single spy on the ground in Gaza. They relied too much on technical superiority, rather than human intelligence.

 

Hamas, on the other hand had excellent intelligence on what the Israeli’s were up to. They know where the cameras and sensors were, and they knew down to the minute details where troops were stationed and where the safe rooms of the nearby kibbutzim were located.

 

Katz and Bohbot pull no punches in describing the ideology of Hamas. Simply put, Hamas is a terrorist organization dedicated to the destruction of Israel. They do not believe in the so-called two state solution. They believe on one state that does not include the Jews of Israel. Why gullible westerners support such barbarism will be the topic of another blog.

 

The authors highlight the huge military buildup that was taking place in Gaza. Starting with the Morsi regime in Egypt which smuggled in weapons manufacturing and construction equipment in 2012. That enabled Hamas to produce heavy weapon and to construct a labyrinth of tunnels underneath Gaza. Israel has no idea as to the full extent of Hamas’ underground city.


Indeed, Hamas war using western and Arab aid to build a war machine. Further they invested some of that aid into a host of front companies to generate income. One of those companies was actually listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange.

 

Nevertheless, there were warnings. In 2016 the defense minister urged a pre-emptive strike on Gaza. That was turned down out fear of high casualties. Israel’s 2014 incursion into Gaza did not go as well as planned with casualties far higher than expected.

 

Among the many recommendations Katz and Bohbot recommend are:

·      * Establish a Director of National Intelligence to coordinate the various security agencies. I would also create a Team B to critique the DNI conclusions.

·     *  Create a Department of Informational Warfare. Hamas propaganda has been running rings around Israel.

·      *  Change the defense posture from deterrence to active defense.

 

To conclude I believe that this book should at least be a starting point for the coming investigation of Israel’s intelligence failures. The witnesses are in the book. Netanyahu and his cabinet will have a tough time in defending themselves from this indictment.

Monday, October 6, 2025

Change is Coming for CBS News and the Mainstream Media

 Today Paramount Skydance, the parent of CBS News, announced the acquisition of The Free Press (https://www.thefp.com ) for $150 million in cash and stock, a hefty price for a news organization that has 1.5 million subscribers, but only 175,000 pay. With the acquisition comes Bari Weiss, an outspoken journalist, with a large following. In four short years The Free Press has gathered a stable of writers that include Nellie Bowles* (Weiss' spouse), Jed Rubenfeld, Tyler Cowan, Niall Ferguson, Jonathan Haidt, Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Charles Lane, among others. 

Weiss will become CBS News' editor-in-chief and will directly report to Paramount CEO David Ellison. Weiss' strong positions against wokeness in the newsroom and her support for Israel will bring a breath of fresh air to stultifying  leftwing conformism of CBS. Her goal will be to broadcast news for the broad middle of the American public, namely the center-left and the center-right. "60 Minutes" and the evening news will soon look quite a bit different. 

If she succeeds it would help breakdown the algorithmic programming of social media that is designed to split the country apart in rage. It would also be a wake up call for NBC and CBS as well as the hoity toity New York Times from where Weiss was forced out by a woke ruled newsroom in 2020.

It is said that living well is the best revenge. With the takeover of The Free Press, founders Weiss, Nellie Bowles and sister Suzy Weiss are now quite rich. Dare I say it, Weiss is now richer than anyone in the New York Times newsroom. Needless to say, this will not go unnoticed.

As a paid subscriber to The Free Press, I can only wish Bari the best.

 *- Just to note I was banned from publishing book reviews on Amazon over Nellie Bowles' book. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2024/06/my-amazon-review-of-nellie-bowles.html )

Sunday, October 5, 2025

The Israel-Hamas War: Is Peace at Hand?

 On October 27, 1972, Henry Kissinger told the nation that “peace is at hand” in Vietnam. He was premature to say the least. We now have announcements from Israel, Hamas, and various Arab states that they are on board with President Trump’s 20-point plan to settle the Israel-Hamas War. Discussions will begin tomorrow in Egypt with Hamas already agreeing to release all of the hostages, both dead and alive, that they hold. A reason to be optimistic is that unlike in 1972 when the North Vietnamese Army was standing strong, Hamas is sitting on the brink of military defeat.

 

However, the hostage release is not the be all and end all to the conflict. The critical sticking points that remain is whether or not Hamas will disarm as required and that Hamas will have no role in the future governing body of Gaza. Both of those conditions Hamas has yet to agree to. Further complicating the situation is that Israel attempted to assassinate Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ lead negotiator in Doha, an attack in which his son was killed.

 

My belief, or hope, is that these obstacles will be overcome. Why? Simply put, the correlation of forces is such that Hamas’ choice is to accept the terms or be “obliterated” using President Trump’s term. An early sign of progress will be the speed at which the Israeli hostages are being released. Of course, all of Israel will be looking at the physical condition of the alive hostages being released which will obviously affect Israel’s negotiating posture. Meantime, the ball is in Hamas’ court.

Sunday, September 28, 2025

My Review of John Malone's "Born to be Wired: Lessons from a Lifetime...."

 Mogul


John Malone is a larger-than-life figure who played a leading role in bringing the cable industry into being. In telling his life story Malone gives us a history of the cable television industry from its humble beginnings to its peak in the late 20th century to its slow decline in the face of competition from streaming. He was also involved in a host of media deals starting in the 1980’s with CNN and right up to the potential of a Warner Brothers Discovery deal with Paramount Skydance.


The title of the book is derived from the Steppenwolf song “Born to be Wild.” We forget that CATV stands for Community Antenna Television. The industry began in the late 1960’s when a few hardy entrepreneurs began putting up towers in rural areas to capture the signals from over the air television. From the towers they strung wires to customers who previously were unable to watch television. Many of the founders actually strung the wires themselves. The industry exploded in the late 1970’s as satellites beamed down programming such as TBS and HBO to the cable operators. And in the 2000’s we witnessed  the full flowering high speed broadband connections into our homes.


Into this milieu stepped John Malone, a middle-class kid from Connecticut with a degree from Yale and a Ph.D. in operations research from Johns Hopkins. He started out at Bell Labs and in his 20’s he addressed the full AT&T board on how to improve its capital structure. After his suggestions were not adopted by the Bell-Heads, he transitioned to a consulting role and subsequently joined Jerold Electronics, a company that manufactures cable hardware.  After being passed over for the CEO job at Jerold’s parent company he struck a deal with Bob Magnes, who was building out his cable operation out of Denver. Malone became the CEO of Tele- Communications in 1973, and by 1996 it was the largest cable operator in country.


Although I was never a player in the industry, I was peripherally involved in the industry through a few small investments. In the 1970’s made seven times my money on Scientific Atlanta, a major supplier of cable boxes. Along the way I owned stock in Cox Communications and Malone’s Liberty Media, and I suffer for my sins by still owning shares in Comcast.

 

When I was working with Salomon Brothers in the 1990’s Bell Atlantic proposed taking over Tele-Communications. Salomon was representing Bell Atlantic in the deal. I remarked to Jack Grubman, Salomon’s star telecommunications analyst, that there is no way the cable cowboys in Denver would culturally mesh with the Bell Atlantic suits in Philadelphia. That deal did not happen, but when AT&T later bought Tele- Communications the cultural issues that I worried about came to the fore.

 

Malone presents portraits of such media moguls as Rupert Murdoch, Sumner Redstone, Ted Turner, Brian Roberts, Barry Diller, and David Zaslav. Afterall he was instrumental in the success of Turner’s CNN and funded Robert Johnson’s efforts to form BET (Black Entertainment Television) Though his Liberty Media, Malone  had control of Charter Communications, SiriusXM, Formula 1, Direct TV,  Home Shopping Network, The Discovery Channel, Match.com, international cable assets, and the Atlanta Braves. Although he has stepped back from active management, he remains a force to be reckoned with in the media world.

 

A good part of Malone’s success was due to his playing the tax code like a Stradivarius. Wherever he could he avoided the payment of taxes and the prime vehicle for that was to create letter stock in his affiliated companies. Although too complicated to go into here, letter stock enables the parent company to segregate the economics of a subsidiary to a new set of shareholders.

 

Not without good reason, Malone was vilified by the public and politicians as a monopolist who delivered poor service at high prices. Some of this was true because Tele-Communications under-invested in service and capital equipment, Hence the need to merge with a big Telco. As Malone recognizes the cable industry gold standard is Cox Communications (now Enterprises), which has the best customer service with the most advanced equipment. I was very unhappy when the company was taken private in 2004. Cox is now in the process of merging with Charter Communications to become the largest cable provider in the U.S.  

 

There is much more to Malone’s autobiography, and highly recommend this book for those interested understanding how our telecommunications cornucopia came into being.

Friday, September 19, 2025

There is a Method to Trump's Madness

 This week the politico/media world is abuzz with the suspension of late-night comedian Jimmy Kimmel over blame shifting comments on the Charlie Kirk assassination. The suspension by ABC/Disney was exacerbated by FCC Brendan Carr’s mafia like threats to suspend the broadcast licenses of its affiliate stations. This time the pearl clutchers on the Left are legitimately concerned about the very real threat to free speech that Carr represents.

 

But there is more here than meets the eye. The move on Kimmel is part and parcel of Trump’s plan to attack the power centers and funding sources of the Left. Think about it; Trump Administration has moved against high level government bureaucrats with DOGE, NGO’s funded by A.I.D., elite universities, Big Law, alternative energy by removing its tax credits, and now the media. The Trumpistas understand that politics are downstream of culture and so it should not surprise anyone that the media is in their crosshairs.

 

Indeed, a sea change in late-night television is now underway. With Stephen Colbert soon to be gone and Kimmel apparently on the way out, late-night television will no longer be a monopoly of the Left where it functioned as both a cheer leader and a therapist for those who tuned in. Further with the Skydance takeover of Paramount, CBS News will no longer exhibit its Left bias and if Paramount moves to take over Warner Bros. Discovery, CNN will move in the same direction. As Bobby Dylan said, “the times, they are a changing.”  All you have to do is look at Trump’s takeover of the Kennedy Center.

 

With respect to funding, look at how hard Trump has hit the big funders of Democratic and leftwing causes. As stated above, look at the contributors from Big Law, government employees, academia, nonprofit organizations, the media, Hollywood, and the alternative energy producers. The next obvious step will be for Trump to use the IRS to intimidate tax exempt organizations that flow big bucks into the Democratic Party and progressive groups.  

 

Historically Silicon Valley has been a huge source of funds for the Democrats, but no more. Just watch the leaders of Big Tech suck up to Trump.

 

As a result, step-by-step the Trumpistas are seizing the organs of power that made the Democratic Party a viable, and many times, dominant political force. Trump is rapidly accumulating power, and the Democrats are cuddling up to the Socialist wing of the party that will bring with it electoral disaster. And it is my guess, that is part of Trump’s plan.

Saturday, September 13, 2025

My Review of Barry Strauss' "Jews vs. Romans"

The Jewish Wars

I take my title from Josephus’ “The Jewish War” which recounts the great Jewish revolt against Rome from 66-74 C.E. Hoover Institution fellow, Barry Strauss while using Josephus’ history, he casts a critical eye on this work written in about 75 C.E. From the time of the Roman invasion of Judea in 63 B.C.E to 136C.E the Jews of Israel fought three wars against the Romans and in many of those wars Jews fought Jews in what can be characterized as civil wars. Indeed, like Josephus some Jews fought on the side of Rome and there was so much infighting that the Talmud tells the reason for the destruction of the Second Temple was “groundless hatred.”


Although Judea was ostensibly a backwater state in the Roman Empire it played a major strategic roll in the thinking of Rome and its arch enemy Parthia (modern day Iran). Simply put, Judea in the hands of Parthia would have created a strategic nightmare for Rome. That is the reason Rome deployed one seventh of its legions in Judea between 66 C.E. – 74 C.E. to put down the great Jewish Revolt. That revolt led to the destruction of the Second Temple and the siege of Masada. Thus, it was no accident that such Roman Emperors as Augustus, Tiberius, Vespasian, and Hadrian took a great interest in the goings on in this small province in their empire.  Further, it was out of this clash of civilizations came Christianity and Rabbinic Judaism.

 

Although Judea was down it was not out. There was a revolt of the diaspora in 116 C.E. and then the Bar Kokhba revolt of 132-136 C.E. Although Bar Kokhba’s guerilla army fought bravely, in the end, they were no match for the trained legions. Just as in the first revolt, there were many Jews who sided with Rome, either out of self-interest or fear of how it would end. The Romans then wiped Judea off the map by calling it “Palaestinia.” I wonder how many Palestinians today know that their name came from ancient Rome.

 

Barry Strauss has given us a very readable history Jewish-Roman wars of two millennia ago. That history resonates today. Indeed, it may seem like current events. My one criticism of the book is that it does not give the reader a sense of the economy of the region. He doesn’t go into the role of Herod as the master builder of Judea. Did that bring about prosperity or result in high taxation to pay for all of his projects? He does mention the gap between the rich and poor Jews but, doesn’t really go into detail.  When I was in Israel last year, I witnessed an archaeological site in Jerusalem that portrayed the immense wealth of the city’s upper crust. That aside Strauss has written an excellent history of the period. 

Sunday, September 7, 2025

My Review of Peter Cozzens' "Deadwood: Gold, Guns and Greed in the American West"

 Gold in Them There Hills


As an enthusiastic fan of the Deadwood HBO series, I was looking forward to Peter Cozzens’ book on the same subject. Except for the book being too long, I was not disappointed. Cozzens’ “Deadwood” has everything. His cast of characters include Wild Bill Hickock, Calamity Jane, Sitting Bull, President Grant, and George Hearst. We witness Indian wars, cattle rustling, horse thieves, stagecoach robberies, gun fights and water wars. As in the HBO series, the two leading protagonists are Seth Bullock and Sol Star who own a hardware store. Bullock would become sheriff and U.S. Marshall and Star would remain a pillar of the community.

 In four short years 1876-1879 Deadwood sparked the imagination of the entire country with the discovery of gold in the Black Hills of South Dakota. The town was founded by would be miners illegally squatting on Indian land that was later legalized. The miners largely came from the vast army of the unemployed caused by the long depression of 1873-1879. Following them was a smaller army of “soiled doves,” prostitutes in the vernacular of the day, who populated the Deadwood’s notorious brothels.

 Two facets of Deadwood’s short history bring out the economist in me. First Deadwood represents a case study in spontaneous order where the town was created out of nothing. Of course, quite a bit of disorder went along with the order, but Deadwood worked more or less. Indeed, Deadwood was one of the few places in the U.S. where African Americans, Jews and Chinese got along with the majority white Christian population and were respected to varying degrees.

 Second, with the passage of Grant’s Specie Resumption Act of 1875 the United States was put on a path to the gold standard. One of the problems with the gold standard is that the growth in the money supply is contingent the success of miners in finding gold. Hence, the importance of Deadwood. In part, Deadwood helped put the U.S. back on the gold standard in 1879.

 Cozzens highlights the role George Hearst the mining magnate who struck it rich in nearby Lead City. His Homestake Mine would form the foundation of his wealth and it enabled his son William Randolf to become a press lord and leading politician in the early 20th Century. He was far from the most scrupulous person, but his mine produced gold through 2002. It truly was the mother lode.

Deadwood’s day in the sun ended with a fire in late 1879 which wiped out the town. However, absent the fire the decline in placer mining made decline inevitable. Capital intensive hard rock mining took the place of the very labor-intensive panning for gold. Cozzens tells a great story of this small mining town that captured the attention of the nation.

 

 

Monday, September 1, 2025

Donald Trump (National Socialist*)

President Donald Trump is nominally a Republican, but in reality, he is putting us on the road to an American version of the national socialism of the 1930’s. Domestically he is attempting to seize the commanding heights of the economy by taking ownership positions in Intel and U.S. Steel and by taking a 15% cut from NVIDIA’s sales to China. ( https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/07/on-road-to-serfdom.html ) Remember that under national socialism businesses remain under private ownership but are under the control of the government. This is a far cry from capitalism. 

 

Further Trump is challenging the independence of the Federal Reserve by demanding the removal of Lisa Cook from the board for allegedly committing mortgage fraud. How did this come about? His minion Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, pulled the mortgage of files of Lisa Cook as well as the files from such Trump adversaries as New York Attorney General Letitia James and Senator Adam Schiff. Let us be clear, this was no accident and soon the IRS and other federal agencies will get into the act.

 

To enhance his powers domestically Trump has appointed his cronies in the Justice Department, the F.B.I., the regulatory agencies and on the courts. Indeed, one of his private attorneys, Todd Blanche is now a deputy attorney general, and another, Eric Bove, was just confirmed to the Court of Appeals. Perhaps more serious is that he has purged a host of officers in the military and the CIA who might be more loyal to the constitution than to him. A defining feature of national socialism is loyalty to the leader, not to the law.

 

In keeping with his national socialist tendencies Trump is in the process of establishing a 150,000-member national police force in the form of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers. These officers could at the stoke of a pen be empowered to engage in broader law enforcement activity and unlike the military they would not be subject to the strictures of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878. Indeed, Trump seems to be using the military in violation of that act anyway. Meantime many U.S. citizens have been caught up in the roundup of illegal immigrants.

 

Internationally Trump through his tariff policies is attempting to turn the open economy of the United States into more of an autarky where domestic production would be sheltered from international competition. In imposing his tariff regime Trump ignored Congress which has near exclusive power over tariffs and taxation. Trump has now lost twice the courts on his tariffs; and it will soon be up to the Supreme Court to rule on them. Further Trump has imposed punitive tariffs on our allies all while cozying up to dictators Putin and Xi. This all part of the national socialist playbook. It might be stretch, but could there be a Trump, Putin, Xi axis?

 

All the while the moral eunuchs of the Republican Party have either cheered Trump on or silently acquiesced. ( See from 2019:  https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-republican-moral-eunuchs-and.html ) Similarly, fearful of retaliation, the business community has remained silent and bowed to his wishes. Thus, in eight short months Trump has seized control of a good part of the economy and the security apparatus of the state.

 

To be sure this not the first time the U.S. experimented with national socialism in peacetime. In 1933 President Roosevelt used the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) and the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) to take control of a good part of the economy. Fortunately, the NIRA was declared unconstitutional in 1935 and the RFC withered away. Let us hope the Supreme Court does the same thing to Trump’s tariffs.

 

Later in 1971 President Nixon imposed a system of price, wage, rent and dividend controls on the entire economy. Nixon also used the IRS against his enemies and spied on his political opponents. The Nixon controls expired in early 1973 and he was impeached in 1974. Say what you will about Nixon; he respected the process. I doubt that can be said of Trump. In 2009 President Obama temporarily took control of the banking and automobile industries.

 

To conclude Trump is in the process of creating an American version of national socialism. I am not going to use the polite words of state capitalism or American Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics. Forewarned is forearmed!

 

*- The reference to national socialism is derived from Germany’s Nazi Party. The official name of the Nazi Party was Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei  or NSDAP which in English is the National Socialist German Workers Party. The Italian version of national socialism was called Partito Nazionale Fascista, PNF which in English is the National Fascist Party.

Saturday, August 23, 2025

Trump, Putin, and Ukraine: Part 2

Last week we wrote up what we thought was a successful conclusion to the Trump-European-Ukraine meeting in Washington D.C. ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/08/trump-putin-and-ukraine-now-comes-hard.html ) Unfortunately, little did we realize that Trump and his hapless special ambassador Steve Witkoff, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, were played for suckers by Putin. Put bluntly, Putin did not agree to security guarantees from the Europeans to be coordinated by the United States. Putin wants all of the Donbass and no European troops in Ukraine.  

So what is to be done now? The U.S. and Europe should step up arms shipments to Ukraine and greenlight Ukrainian attacks deep into Russia. In addition both the U.S. and Europe should sanction Russia to the max. The attacks have already begun with Russia's energy infrastructure now under long range attack. Gas lines are now forming in Russia. In addition, as we have argued in the past, Ukraine should set ablaze the Russian oilfields in Western Siberia. The path to a negotiated settlement requires Russia to feel real pain putting the ball in Trump's court. Hopefully that will happen.   

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

The Wall Street Journal follows Shulmaven on Serfdom

 

Sunday, July 27, 2025

Trump, Intel and the Road to Serfdom

Hayek warned of the danger of government ownership stakes in major companies.  (See: Trump, Intel and the Road to Serfdom - WSJ paywall)

 ET

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Trump, Putin, and Ukraine: Now Comes the Hard Part

I have been writing about Ukraine since 2014 (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-ukraine-what-is-to-be-done.html ) and as recently as last March. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/03/shame.html ) Yesterday’s White House summit meeting with European leaders and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky reversed the very negative vibes set off by Friday’s Trump-Putin Alaska summit where it was feared that Trump was about to sell out Ukraine. The conversations were both serious and friendly and it seems that there was a real reproachment between Trump and Zelensky.

 

However, the hard part is now ahead of us. It remains to be seen whether or not Putin will actually meet with Zelensky. Today Switzerland offered up its good offices as a meeting site. Should that happen, it would open the way for a trilateral summit with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky.

 

What has to be ironed out is the precise border between Ukraine and the Russian held provinces. That border would have to be defensible, which means that the current Ukrainian position in the Donetsk region would have to be maintained, something that Russia is opposed to. Another question is what the European security guarantee would cover.  For example, would it include troops on ground, air support and rebuilding assistance? Perhaps more important what would be the modalities of the United States’ role as security coordinator. Would it include intelligence sharing, military hardware, and air support? Although Trump has ruled out combat troops, would it allow for support troops involved in training. And don’t forget Putin has a vote in all of this.

 

Nevertheless, for the first time since the war started over three years ago there is a pathway to a settlement. It certainly won’t be perfect because Putin’s aggression would be rewarded, but it will enable Ukraine to be a viable and prosperous state. Remember, diplomacy is the art of the possible.

Saturday, August 16, 2025

My Review of Andrew Lambert's "No More Napoleons"

The Balance of Power


King’s College naval historian Andrew Lambert has written an over-detailed evaluation of British geopolitical strategy from 1793-1914. After fighting France for 22 years Britain settled on a strategy of offshore balancing and maintaining order in Europe enforced by the Royal Navy and a small expeditionary force. The initial goal was to prevent a revanchist France from regaining control of Europe. The architects were Prime Minister Lord Liverpool, Foreign Secretary Castlereagh, and the Duke of Wellington. The latter initially as the hero of Waterloo and later as prime minister. Their policies were enhanced by Lord Palmerston as both foreign secretary and prime minister.


Britain’s greatest fear was that a continental power could launch an invasion from the low countries. Hence it was crucial to keep France out of the Scheldt Estuary and the Port of Antwerp. When Belgium split off from Holland the 1839 Neutrality Treaty orchestrated by Palmerston kept France out. The result of that treaty and Britain’s troop presence in Belgium in 1870, kept both France and Germany out of Belgium during their war. This would not be so in 1914.


The linchpin of the strategy was the power of the Royal Navy whose goal was to be at least twice as strong as any two powers. Aside from a quantitative advantage the Royal Navy had the most technologically advanced fleet by taking advantage of steam power, screw propellers, gunnery, and hydrology. The Royal Navy truly ruled the waves and it enabled Britain to become a global power through its colonies, but for that power to be maintained there had to be an offshore balance in Europe.


For most of the 19th century the policy succeeded largely because France was in a long-term relative decline while Britain was moving to its heights. However, after 1870 Britain entered into a relative decline in relationship to a newly reunified Germany. As a result, it required an alliance with France which severely limited Britain’s freedom of action. Britain learned the hard way in the trenches of France. Given all of Britain’s interest in Belgium, it is a wonder why Germany was unsure about Britain’s entry in World War I after it invaded Belgium.


Although Lambert discusses the 1815 Vienna settlement, he makes little note of Count Metternich of Austria whose interest in a stable Europe was greater than Britain’s. He also does not cite Henry Kissinger’s “A World Restored” on the Congress of Vienna. He also left out a discussion on the 1878 Congress of Berlin where British Prime Minister Disraeli played a leading role in settling, at least for a time, the Balkan question. There is way too much information in this book, and I would only recommend it to history nerds.

 

  

Monday, August 11, 2025

The Wall Street Journal Follows Shulmaven on Socializing the Economy

 Today's Wall Street Journal brought with it an important article by economics columnist Greg Ip entitled "U.S. Marches Towards State Capitalism...." (See: https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-u-s-marches-toward-state-capitalism-with-american-characteristics-f75cafa8?mod=hp_lead_pos5 , paywall) In the article Ip outlines how the U.S. is moving towards state capitalism with Trump's demands for a share of NVIDIA's chip exports to China, the golden share in the U.S. Steel takeover and Biden's industrial policy. In my words, socialism with American characteristics. 

Aside from the over-night news about chip exports, Shulmaven made the same case on July 27th where we added tariffs and Biden's DEI policies. ( https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/07/on-road-to-serfdom.html )Whether we call it state capitalism, socialism or fascism, the result is the same. We are entering a world of state controlled economic activity which in the words of Hayek will put us on "the road to serfdom."

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Will AI be a winner Take All Market?

 Much has be written about the explosive growth in capital spending on AI by Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon. (See: https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-ai-booms-hidden-risk-to-the-economy-731b00d6?mod=author_content_page_1_pos_1 , paywall) Those four companies are on tap to spend about $360 billion this year on building out data centers and related investments. Given the high prices of their stocks, market participants are assuming that AI investment will have a huge payoff in the future and are willing to overlook short term declines in free cash flow.

My sense is that investors are underappreciating three risks. The first is that the return on tangible capital will likely be lower than the hitherto high returns on intangible capital earned by the four companies. Second, the bidding war for talent where $100 million payouts have taken place will squeeze margins. Third, and perhaps most important, is that AI will not, at least initially, be a winner take all market. It is likely that AI will be nowhere near as profitable as winner take all Microsoft's operating systems, Google's search, and Meta's social media. 

Why? At the present time there are six highly capitalized entrants in the AI market and many smaller ventures competing for market share. The six are ChatGPT, Gemini, Anthropic, Perplexity, Meta AI, and Grok. Although ChatGPT has the current lead, this is a highly fluid market environment with deep pockets competing for market share. Thus, my guess is that investors will soon be disappointed with the returns coming from AI. The likely beneficiaries of this competition will be consumers and the highly talented employees.

Saturday, August 2, 2025

The Guns of August*

One hundred and eleven years ago the guns of August opened fire signaling the start of World War I. Although far from being deadly, the July employment report reeked carnage on the stock market with the S&P 500 declining by 1.6% on Friday while the bond market sustained a massive rally with the 2-year note yields declining by 27 basis points and 10-year yields declining by 14 basis points. The markets are clearly sniffing out a recession.

 

Nonfarm payrolls increased by a meagre 73,000 jobs, but what really spooked the markets was a gigantic downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June. Further, all of the gain can be accounted for by healthcare and social services, hardly growth drivers. The three-month average for employment gains of 35,000 jobs is indicative of a stalled labor market. The far more volatile household survey was much worse with the average monthly decline from May to July of 287,000 jobs. My guess is that the administration’s immigration raids are now taking their toll on the job market. The labor market is experiencing simultaneous demand and supply shocks.

 

In March I called for the recession of 2025 to begin in the second quarter. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-recession-of-2025.html ) That obviously didn’t pan out, but with real final domestic demand growing at only 1.2% in the second quarter and the job market stalling out, it was pretty close to a recession.

 

The day before the employment data came out, President Trump announced a panoply of tariffs on a host of countries that have failed to make a deal with him. Those tariffs and the earlier ones announced for the E.U. and Japan means that the U.S average tariff rate is now about 19%, eight times above where we started the year. Simply put, Trump called the market’s bluff on the TACO trade an eventuality we noted in June. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/06/stocks-too-complacent-about-taco-trade.html )

 

As a result, with Trump’s tariffs now baked into the cake and with a stalled job market, the U.S. economy is on course for stagflation. The tariffs will keep inflation as measured by the core price indices above 3% and that will put the Fed between a rock and a hard place, especially because the unemployment rate will remain well contained, at least for now.

 

Adding insult to injury President Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer because he didn’t like the revisions to the employment data. His big, beautiful economy is not as beautiful as he thought. This banana republic move will lower the market’s confidence in future data coming out for the government’s data mills, not a good thing.

 

Lastly, I have been skeptical of the stock market’s big rally off the April lows. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/06/my-ucla-anderson-forecast-presentation.html ) My sense is that this skepticism will soon be justified.


*- With apologies to Barbara Tuchman

Thursday, July 31, 2025

My Review of George Selgin's "False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery, 1933-1947"

The Recovery that Failed


Libertarian economist George Selgin has written an intriguing history of the New Deal and role Keynesian thought played in it. The book is largely a critique of Eric Rauchway’s “The Moneymakers.” (See:   https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2015/12/my-amazon-review-of-eric-rauchways.html ) In the main I agree with Selgin. Simply put, many policies attributed to Roosevelt weren’t really his and by and large Roosevelt was wary of deficits as a macroeconomic policy tool. In Selgin’s framework the New Deal consisted of three R’s: recovery, relief, and reform. Selgin focuses on the recovery aspects and notes that Roosevelt’s deficits came from funding relief.


To begin with the ideas behind the Emergency Banking Act of 1933 which closed and then reopened the banks came from Hoover’s treasury department, namely Secretary Ogden Reed and Under-Secretary Arthur Ballentine. Further Roosevelt opposed the deposit insurance provisions of the Glass-Steagall Act because of the moral hazards associated with it. That issue would come to the fore in the 1980’s. A criticism of Selgin is that he does not give credit for how successful deposit insurance was during the 1937-38 downturn. The bank runs of the early depression were over.

 

As to deficit financing, the biggest deficit took place in 1936 when the World War I veterans’ bonus was paid out. Roosevelt opposed it and his veto was over-ridden. The payout provided a short-term boost to the economy and played a significant role in his re-election. However, in 1937 the lack of such stimulus played a role in that year’s downturn.

 

In the Spring of 1938 Roosevelt and his advisors finally took Keynes’ advice and embarked on the first true Keynesian stimulus of his administration. However, in the light of the World War II spending that was to come, it was far too little.

 

Selgin credits the massive gold inflows of the 1930’s for the modest recovery that took place. The gold came from Stalin’s stepping up gold production in the Soviet Union and European flight capital fearing Hitler. It was the gold inflow that enabled the Fed to embark on a policy of monetary easing, a policy that was halted in late 1936 as the treasury sterilized the gold inflows out of fear of inflation.

Roosevelt did take the U.S. off the gold standard in 1933 and raised the price of gold, a stratagem that Keynes advised. To Keynes it would be path to monetary ease. However, according to Selgin the increase in price of gold came from the ideas of George Warren who thought that a rise in the price of gold would automatically increase commodity prices. It did not.

 

Along the way Selgin notes how Roosevelt’s reforms stalled the economy, and the anti-business nature of his policies greatly weakened private investment. That would not turn until World War II ended and the feared depression did not take hold. Selgin observed a rise in business optimism in the aftermath of the war; however, this sentiment was not reflected in stock prices, as Wall Street experienced a three-year bear market from 1946 to 1949.  Stock market investors at the time were clearly worried. As a result, it would have helped to have some discussion of stock prices during his 1933-1947 history.

 

 

 

Sunday, July 27, 2025

On the Road to Serfdom*

 Although few people realize it, the Trump/Biden years will be remembered when the United States took a giant step on the road to serfdom by socializing the economy. The Republicans of yore held up the virtues of the free market; under Trump that is no longer the case. For generations the Democrats have never been comfortable with the workings of the market, but they conceded its ability to generate wealth and to create a mass prosperity. However, today there are growing voices in the Democratic Party to socialize much of the economy.

Under Biden the country embarked on an industrial policy whose goals were to penalize the production of fossil fuels and subsidize clean energy (solar and wind), subsidize computer chip making, and further increase the government's involvement in healthcare, just to name a few. Biden also left the initial Trump tariffs in place. You can't look to the Democrats to support free trade. Further, Biden attempted to micromanage the economy by putting DEI into every nook and cranny of employment law.

Compared to Trump's second term, Biden's industrial policies were chump change. Trump is in the process of jacking up tariffs from 3% to close to 20%, extorted $550 billion from Japan to fund a sovereign wealth fund, made an investment in rare earth producer MP Materials (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-pentagon-makes-play-for-rare-earths.html), and with a "golden share" gave the president control of U.S. Steel. To me the sovereign wealth fund brings up memories of the corrupt Reconstruction Finance Corporation of 1932-1953, a path to corruption if there ever was one. Although American universities are need of significant reform, Trump's attempt to micromanage them goes far beyond what is necessary.

My sense is that under Trump we are on the road to something that will look a lot like Mussolini fascism where the private sector carries out the will of the state. For those comfortable with Trump, I would warn them what goes around comes around. When the Democrats return to power the economy could soon be turned into a 21st century version of British Labor Party socialism of the late 1940's with the added kicker of having DEI on steroids. Either way, it is not a pretty picture. 

*-With apologies to Friedrich von Hayek

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

My Review of Josh Dawsey's, Tyler Pager's. and Isaac Arnsdorf's "2024: How Trump......."

Slow Motion Train Wreck

Washington journalists Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager, and Isaac Arnsdorf have written a personality-driven account of the 2024 presidential election. Starting in 2022 they take us behind the scenes of the Trump, Biden, and later Harris campaigns for the presidency. There is an inevitability to it all, but after all the book is an after the fact accounting of the election.


What the book lacks is a review of the structural backdrop to the election. There should have been tables of polling data on the relative popularity of the candidates along with the electorate’s view on whether the country was on the “right track” or the “wrong track.”


Much of the ground here was discussed in “Original Sin,” but that book ended with Biden dropping out of the race. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/06/my-review-of-jake-tappers-and-alex.html) Both books are consistent in the view that Hunter Biden’s legal problems weighed greatly on Biden. The authors are sympathetic to Harris, but they do note her many unforced errors, specifically her failure to fully rebut her 2020 positions on hot button social issues, her failure to separate herself from Biden and picking the lackluster Tim Walz as her VP selection.

 

I learned much about the Trump campaign and how Suzie Wiles brought a modicum of discipline. She was instrumental in neutering Ron DeSantis, her former boss and the real rival to Trump. I also didn’t realize how important Steve Witkoff and Laura Loomer were to Trump. Witkoff was his consistent consigliere and is now a special ambassador to the Russia/Ukraine and the middle east. Loomer, despite being somewhat of an unguided missile, rallied support for Trump before and during the campaign.

 

The book also reinforced my view of Ron Klain, Biden’s chief of staff and campaign honcho. Klain instinct was always to seek support on the Left. This was true post-debate and well before, when he was in charge of policy. In my opinion it is was his predilections that kept Biden tacking Left while in office which, in my view, doomed his presidency.

 

This authors give us a real fly on the wall perspective to both campaigns, but I said at the outset, a full review of the structural parameters of the race would have been helpful.

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

My Review of Tom Arnold-Forster's "Walter Lippmann: An Intellectual Biography"

 The Evolution of Walter Lippmann from Socialist to Conservative-Liberal

 

I previously reviewed Craufurd Goodwin’s book on Walter Lippman as an economist. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2014/11/my-amazon-review-of-craufurd-goodwins.html ) Here we have Tom Arnold-Forster’s work as a complete intellectual biography of Lippmann’s thought. Lippmann, born in 1889 from a wealthy Jewish family, would over the next seven decades would become one of America’s great pundits. He would ignore his Jewish heritage throughout his life.

 

Lippmann advised presidents, worked on Wilson’s 14 Points, was present at the Versailles Conference and with his 1922 “Public Opinion” became a leading political scientist. To Lippmann social psychology was the driving force behind the formation of public opinion.

 

After graduating from Harvard Lippmann hung out in the socialist milieu of the Greenwich Village and the New Republic crowd of the 1910’s. He became good buddies with the soon to be communist, John Reed. However, he never lived there and retreated to his upper-eastside family home.

 

From his perch as a syndicated columnist, first with the New York World and then with the Herald Tribune, through his "Today and Tomorrow" column he became widely known and very influential. He fully supported the urban liberalism of Al Smith. He was extraordinarily prescient in 1931 about the enormity of the crisis caused by the Great Depression and again in 1938 he fully understood Hitler’s motives to conquer Europe.

 

However, once the immediate emergency of the depression was over, Lippmann moved to the Right. So much so that a group of European conservative economists, including Hayek, sponsored a 1938 colloquium in his honor. Simply put Lippmann’s opposition to state planning put him in good stead with that group and it was there he coined the term “neo-liberal.”

 

He went all out to support the U.S. military build-up from 1939-41 and after the war he became an advocate of military-Keynesianism. Early on he understood the danger coming from the Soviet Union and he popularized the term, “Cold War.” His Eurocentricity made him a critic of the Vietnam war.

 

Lippmann was a great believer in the role of newspapers in forming public opinion. Afterall, he wrote “Public Opinion” just prior to the advent of radio. I wonder what he would think now of the collapse of newspapers and panoply of information sources that the public now has available?

 

My concern about the book is that Arnold-Forster largely presents criticisms of Lippmann from the Left about his economics and his belief in a strong America. Criticism from the Right comes very late in the book and is minimal. My guess is that the author unfortunately sides with the Left.

Thursday, July 10, 2025

The Pentagon Makes a Play for Rare Earths

In taking a page out of Winston Churchill's playbook, where Britain acquired a 51% controlling interest in the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (now BP) on the eve of World War I, the Pentagon today made a $400 million dollar investment in rare earth miner/refiner MP Materials. The Pentagon on full exercise of its convertible preferred and warrants will own 14% of the company and become its largest shareholder. Paired with the investment is a long-term supply contract at fixed minimum prices thereby ensuring profitability. 


Rare earths are used to make highly sophisticated magnets that are used in advanced aircraft (think F-35) and guided missiles. At the present time the bulk of the rare earths used by the Pentagon and U.S. industry are imported from China, not the best of circumstances.

The Pentagon's logic behind the deal is identical to Churchill's over 100 years ago. As First Lord of the Admiralty Churchill was seeking a secure supply of oil for the Royal Navy. In addition to its investment, Britain secured a 20-year supply contract for Anglo-Persian's oil. 

As an aside, the preferred stock is convertible at $30.03 a share. MP Materials stock shot up to $44, so thus far the Pentagon is well ahead of the game.

Monday, July 7, 2025

My Review of Tim Bouverie's "Allies at War"

 A Menage of Convenience

 

Historian Tim Bouverie has written a follow-on to his “Appeasement…” (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2019/07/my-amazon-review-of-tim-boveries.html ) with an exhaustive history of the Roosevelt-Churchill-Stalin alliance of World War II. After Stalin’s dalliance with Hitler fell apart in June 1941 he joined up with Churchill. Although Roosevelt supplied Britain with lend-lease aid, he didn’t become a full partner until the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Bouverie recounts in great detail the diplomacy involved in keeping the alliance together where, to say the least, the war aims of the three parties differed.

 

I will not recount here what has already been written about the big wartime conferences in Casablanca, Tehran, and Yalta. What I found most interesting was how Churchill’s dealings with Vichy France, Spain, and Iraq in 1940 and 1941 was of great strategic import. To back up a bit in 1936 British Foreign Secretary Samuel Hoare teamed up with French Prime Minister Pierre Laval in a failed scheme to appease Mussolini in Ethiopia. Moving ahead to 1940 we found Hoare working brilliantly as ambassador to Spain to keep Spain out of Axis hands while Laval worked for the Nazi’s has a high official in Vichy France.

 

In response to Vichy, Churchill acted boldly in sinking a good portion of the French fleet off the coast of Algeria to keep it out of the hands of Germany. The U.S. policy towards Vichy was far more muddled. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2021/12/my-amazon-review-of-michael-neibergs.html )

 

Simultaneously Churchill had big troubles in the middle east where a pro-axis coup in Iraq threatened its oil supplies. Churchill deployed his over-stretched army in Egypt and Palestine to over-turn the coup and remove Vichy authorities from Syria. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2019/06/my-amazon-review-of-john-broichs-blood.html ) All the while London was being blitzed and Britain’s position in Egypt was under threat.

 

As the war was winding down the early fissures of the Cold War came to the fore. Although Bouverie does not think the Cold War was inevitable, I would tend to disagree. He doesn’t give much weight to the removal of the more pro-Western Maxim Litvinov from his ambassadorial post in Washington and similarly the removal of Ivan Maisky from London in 1943 with more hardline officials. To me that was a major tell. Once Stalin achieved the initiative on ground in 1942 his war aim was to seize eastern Europe to establish a buffer from Germany. Bouverie is correct in stating that Churchill and Roosevelt at Yalta could do little to alter the facts on ground.  The combination of the Soviet army along with the success of its spy services made the Soviet Union a clear winner at enormous cost of World War II. ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2021/06/my-amazon-review-of-sean-mckeekins.html )  That in turn set the stage for the Cold War.

 

Tim Bouverie has written an important book about diplomatic history. There is much here to study, and he demonstrated that although the parties had different war aims they succeeded in destroying the Hitlerite regime.

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Slaying the CEQA Dragon

 In a victory for the “abundance agenda” (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/04/my-review-of-ezra-kleins-and-derek.html ) over the “enviro-liberals” (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2016/04/donald-trump-and-enviro-liberals.html ) and their labor union* allies the California Legislature just amended the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) to exempt multifamily housing projects in urban areas from the strictures of the law. No longer can narrow special interest groups hold up much need housing by threatening and engaging in litigation.

 

California is the midst of the worst housing crisis in the Nation. The median price of a single-family home is $900,000 and where so-called affordable housing projects come in in excess of $1,000,000/unit. California used to build housing and from 1960 -2010 the state authorized about 200,000 units/year. In 2024 only 100,000 units were authorized, and the state is now short about 2,000,000 units.

 

Although the housing shortfall has many causes, much of the blame can be placed at the feet of CEQA. A coterie of neighborhood groups, enviro-liberals, labor unions and law firms seem to work in unison to stop much needed housing. Until about 1970 house prices in California were roughly in line with the national average. However, with the Friends of Mammoth Decision that made CEQA applicable to private projects and the passage of the California Coastal Act in 1972, house prices took off. As a result, house prices in the Golden State are nearly two and half times the national median. It is no wonder that there is an exodus from the state.

 

The Democratic Legislature and Governor Gavin Newsom deserve credit for enacting this legislation. It is way late, but better late than never.

 

*Labor unions used CEQA to extort project labor agreement from developers. Indeed high-rise construction under the Bill requires union labor.