My Review of Victor Shvets' "The Twilight Before the Storm"

 The Times They Are A-Changin* 

Viktor Shvets, an investment strategist at Macquarie Bank, doesn’t like the baby boomers, especially the neoliberal order that generation brought into being. Drawing on the work of Neil Howe and others ( https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2023/09/my-review-of-neil-howes-fourth-turning.html ) wherein generational changeovers drive history he argues that the neoliberal order of 1980-2010 is over and we poised enter a turbulent era with the Gen-Z and millennial generations taking power. He analogizes the coming epoch to that of the 1930’s where communism, fascism and social democracy fought it out for global supremacy which set the world on fire in the 1940’s.

To Shvets the change is being brought about by the merger of financialization with the technological revolution which is creating an unsustainable income distribution that has given rise to populism on both the Right and the Left. He calls this the Fujiwhara effect where two tropical storms merge to create a monster storm. I would note that his view of fairness is horizontal equity as opposed to vertical equity where people are free to enjoy the fruits of their labor and talents.

I am a big fan of Neil Howe and I have written a thus far five part series on “Reliving the 1930’s” (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2023/11/reliving-1930s-part-5.html ) As result a read Shvets’ book with some sympathy, but in my opinion he gets more than a few things wrong. I lived the 1960’s through the rise of neoliberalism as a hippy protestor to working on Wall Street. I know I am far from being the only one. However, his boomers are the ones who went to college, not the ones who fought in Vietnam, went to work in a factory, and suffered through the divorce epidemic of the 1970’s. 

 

While Shvets is critical of the individualism of the boomers in the economic realm, he fully supports their individualism with respect to sex, drugs, and racial tolerance. Basically, the rebels of the 1960’s won a complete victory in the culture war and lost the economic war. To me it was no accident that economic freedom went hand in hand with personal freedom, although you can certainly argue there are excesses in both areas.

 

Connecting our era to that of the 1930’s, Shvets’ believes that ideally, we would have a rerun of 1930’s America along a path toward Roosevelt-style social democracy that would include a universal basic income. However, that path might not be viable and it is not the only path. The social democratic path faces the fundamental reality that in the “Blue” cities of America that are far down the road toward social democracy we see abject governmental failure in the form of high taxes coupled with poor services, failed public education, fiscal bankruptcy, governmental fraud and the widest gaps between rich and poor. That future is hardly enticing.

 

Instead, the fourth turning could lead to a major cultural revolution towards a new religiosity in society. Where the Gen-Zers and the millennials have substituted environmentalism, socialism, feminism, and new ageism for religion, in place of the market fundamentalism of the Boomers, they may ultimately turn to the real thing. It won’t be the first time America has had a religious awakening, and it won’t be the first time that history surprises.

 

*-With apologies to Bob Dylan

Kevin Warsh and the Fed

President Trump announced this week that he selected, subject to Senate approval, Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve Board thus ending this season's apprentice competition. Warsh seems to be a chameleon because doves see in him his call for a lower federal funds rates and hawks see his past positions that called for higher interest rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet. It seems the immediate market response was a collapse in gold and silver prices that were buoyed by the debasement trade.

In my view both hawks and doves will be disappointed. In the short run I think he will support lowering the Fed Funds rate by another 50 basis points taking it down to a 3%-3.25% range in the belief that rising productivity will lower the inflation rate to the Fed's long missed 2% target. As stated here previously, I think that is a losing bet.  ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/12/2026-year-of-turbulence.html )  Further, consistent with recent market behavior I do not think that long rates will move lower thereby steepening the yield curve. Rick Rieder, Blackrock's CIO and former apprentice for the job) articulated a case for a 3-4-5 yield curve with funds at 3%, the 10-Year at 4%, and the 30-year at 5.5%. That looks like where we will end up this year, but with the 10-Year closer to 4.5%.

In the short run a Warsh Fed will let the economy run hot. That will bring with it higher profits, higher inflation, higher long term interest rates, and a volatile stock market with a downward bias. But if we step back a bit, it is becoming clearer by the day that we are in an era of fiscal dominance. The Fed would thus accommodate continual deficits of 6% of GDP that will put upward pressure on inflation. When the rubber hits the road the Fed will either be forced to tighten triggering a recession or adopt yield curve control to manage the long end of the curve. It will be only then that we will find out if Warsh is a hawk or a dove. If the Fed moves toward yield curve control the debasement trade will have legs.

Donnie Does Davos* and Mayhem in Minneapolis

 It was quite a week. We had President Trump on the scene in Davos doing his best to break up NATO with his threats to acquire Greenland by force. (See: Shulmaven: History Rhyming with Trump and Greenland ) His histrionics certainly put the conference back on the map and it made him the focal point of attention. That was his plan all along, because he quickly retreated. The conference ended with Trump's setting up his so-called Board of Peace which by its makeup looks more like a Board of War.

But not before Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gave him a scathing rebuke calling out his attempt to "rupture the world order." Indeed, the world might have changed last week. Carney is now the hero of the Davos set but I would your attention to the facts that he threw Israel under the bus by recognizing the Palestinian state and he has done nothing to bring a halt to the surging antisemitism in Canada. Thus he is hardly the paragon of Western virtue.

Meantime Minneapolis has exploded in a wave of mayhem culminating in ICE officers claiming their second (alleged) murder victim. With 3,000 ICE officers confronting 25,000 protestors on a daily basis in frigid temperatures things have and will continue to go south very quickly.  ICE looks like an occupying army out for revenge. Whatever Trump's motivations are, it is not helping his agenda as his polls collapse. Indeed, the entire enforcement operation is taking the focus off the real Medicaid scandal in Minnesota and he is making a hero out of the hapless governor, Tim Walz who is likely up to his eyeballs in corruption.

Finally, as of this writing Trump is a pulling an Obama (remember the Syrian redline of 2013) by failing to live up to his promise to support the Iranian protestors. Mass murder has taken place on his watch, and by encouraging the protestors, Trump set them up to be slaughtered on a mass scale by the Ayatollahs. 

*-With apologies to "Debbie Does Dallas" a 1978 porn classic.

Greenland Compromise: Rent, not Buy

Yesterday I wrote about how Trump is following in the footsteps of Hitler and Stalin over his demand to buy Greenland from Denmark. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2026/01/history-rhyming-with-trump-and-greenland.html ) Today Trump said he would not use force to takeover the island, but he certainly did not rule out other forms of coercion. 

My sense is that Trump's art of the deal is aiming for de facto, but not de jure, control of Greenland. Denmark has been very adamant that Greenland is not for sale. Denmark has not commented on whether or not it could be rented. Remember, Trump is a real estate guy. So here goes my idea as one way that Trump could get what he wants.

Instead of purchasing Greenland, the U.S enters into a 99-year lease arrangement with Denmark. The lease terms would give the U.S. full operating control over the island in exchange for an annual lease payment amounting to X- $ billions.  That would more than fund Denmark's current obligations to the 56,000 member Greenland community and then some. Thus Denmark would still retain nominal sovereignty over the Greenland and the island would still fly the Danish flag. 

This result is not pretty, but that is the way negotiations could end up.

History Rhyming with Trump and Greenland

Mark Twain noted that history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it rhymes. This is exactly what is happing with Donald Trump's proposal to seize Greenland. Before Hitler took the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938 he threatened to invade. Similarly, Putin made noises about taking Crimea in 2014 before invading that part of Ukraine. It seems that Trump is giving new life to my "Reliving the 1930's series. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2023/11/reliving-1930s-part-5.html ) The difference here is that instead of acting like a leader, Trump is acting like a three year-old toddler. He neeeeds Greenland. Unfortunately, his tantrum is breaking up NATO and like the previous episodes I noted, it will make the world a far more dangerous place.

My Review of Amit Segal's "A Call at 4 AM"

 A Primer on Israeli Politics

Leading Israeli reporter Amit Segal has written a primer on Israeli politics going back to the State’s founding. I would characterize his views as center-right. However, a long time Israeli friend and former reporter would argue that Segal is firmly on the Right. In the beginning Israel created a parliamentary system consisting of 120 delegates to the Knesset who would be elected via a party slate by proportional representation, not by constituency. In 1948 with the new state’s boundaries up for grabs, it wasn’t really possible to create individual districts. You would think that accountability would flow through the political parties, but, in fact, the party leaders became personality cults starting with David Ben Gurion. It seems that once in power prime ministers never know when to quit. Ego mania is alive and well in Israeli politics.

 

With 120 seats in the Knesset, a majority of just 61 seats runs the country. For the first 29 years the Mapai Party (Labor) had a monopoly on power. However, since 1977 when a rightwing bloc formed around the Likud Party under the leadership of Menachem Begin took power, it has for the most part represented the dominant coalition in the Knesset. Israeli governments are coalition governments, because even during the heyday of the Labor Party, no party ever achieved a majority.

 

The trick is to put together a coalition of 61 members and for the past 50 years by the dint of demographics and divisions in the Left, rightwing governments tended to run the country. It has to be kept in mind that the distinctions between right and left are not of the American variety. According to Segal, what separates the right from the left is the distance from Yasser Arafat and his successors. Historically the left has been open to a two-state solution while the right has not.

 

Segal points out the reasons for the ascendancy of the right. The 1973 Suez War destroyed the credibility of the left on the security issue. The failure of the 2000 peace talks with Arafat led to the second intifada thereby causing the left to lose the peace issue. In the 2026 election the critical question will be the right’s failure to defend the country on October 7^th, 2023, be enough to topple its long-term hegemony or alternatively will its subsequent success be enough for it to hold power.

 

On the importance of personality over party, Segal highlights the case of General Ariel Sharon who became a Labor Party member to be promoted in the early 1970’s, he then broke with them to help found the Likud Party and later he founded his own party. During his life he built settlements that he would later destroy.

 

Today political divisions in Israel evolve around Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the question of Jewish versus Israeli identity. Israelis are either for him or against him, so much so that most center and left parties won’t be in a coalition government with him especially when Netanyahu’s guiding philosophy is “no enemies on the Right,” and no one trusts him. That abstention gives power to the Haredi religious parties whose votes in the Knesset are traded for draft exemptions and huge public subsidies that are bleeding the country white.

 

Those citizens who view themselves as primarily Israeli are largely secular and their views about trading West Bank land for peace with the Palestinians are based on a cold-eyed analysis of Israel’s security. On the other hand, those Israeli’s who view themselves as primarily Jewish view Judea and Samaria as sacred ground of the Bible where their forefathers walked and where David and Solomon were kings and where the prophets spoke truth to power. Thus, control of that land is non-negotiable.

 

After reading Segal’s book I have come to the conclusion that the only way to pull Israeli society together after the brutal Gaza War is for Netanyahu and the center left to form a coalition government that would remove the far-right Ben Gvir and Smotrich factions from the government as well as the religious parties.  ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/10/my-review-of-yaakov-katz-and-amir.html ) That would lower the temperature in Judea and Samaria and pave the way to radically reduce the power of the Haredi parties. It is not perfect, but as they say, politics is the art of the possible and both the right and the left are going to have to swallow their pride.

Donald Trump (National Socialist) - Part 2

Donald Trump took two more steps down the road to national socialism today. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/09/donald-trump-national-socialist.html ) First, his Justice Department announced a criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jay Powell to further his attempt to control the central bank. In March 1933 Hitler appointed Hjalmar Schacht to lead the Reichsbank to reinforce his control over the economy and to secretly fund the military as part of his first 100 days.

 

Second, his Department of Labor put out a slogan on social media calling for “One Homeland, One People, One Heritage.”  This slogan brings to mind the Nazi slogan “Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Fuhrer,” which means “one people, one nation, one leader.”  Whether the Department of Labor knew its historical antecedents or not, it is a troubling sign. All the while the Department of Homeland Security is over-reaching, to put it mildly, in rounding up illegal immigrants. To anyone with a historical memory, it is not a pretty sight.