History Rhyming with Trump and Greenland

Mark Twain noted that history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it rhymes. This is exactly what is happing with Donald Trump's proposal to seize Greenland. Before Hitler took the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938 he threatened to invade. Similarly, Putin made noises about taking Crimea in 2014 before invading that part of Ukraine. It seems that Trump is giving new life to my "Reliving the 1930's series. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2023/11/reliving-1930s-part-5.html ) The difference here is that instead of acting like a leader, Trump is acting like a three year-old toddler. He neeeeds Greenland. Unfortunately, his tantrum is breaking up NATO and like the previous episodes I noted, it will make the world a far more dangerous place.

Some Thoughts on Trump's National Security Strategy

Earlier this week the Trump Administration released its updated National Security Strategy. (See: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf ) Needless to say that given the howls that went up, it was far from being universally applauded, especially in Europe. Europe is rightly concerned that the era of having a NATO umbrella over the continent is over. However, given earlier commentaries coming from Vice President Vance, in particular, the document should not come as a surprise. Trump’s policy of selling out allies and cozying up to adversaries is all there in black and white.

I have three preliminary thoughts on the strategy. First, it is harkening back to the America First of 1939-1941. It focuses in on hemispheric security to the exclusion of Europe and just has America First leader Charles Lindbergh was open to a modus vivendi with Nazi Germany, here we have America open to a condominium with Putin’s Russia. It certainly does not bode well for Ukraine and for that matter Israel. Further, the strategy puts policy muscle behind Trump’s Caribbean buildup against Venezuela. To the Trump Administration Latin America is now part of an American economic zone.

Second, there is the strong smell of Yalta in the document. Instead of Roosevelt and Stalin dividing up Europe, we now have Trump, Putin and especially Xi dividing up the world into spheres of interest. The glue holding the deal together is economic self-interest. Where Taiwan fits into this over the longer term is very ambiguous.

Third, there are some hard policy realities behind the document. Europe has the ability to defend itself against Russia; it only lacks the will. Russia remains bogged down in Ukraine after more than three years of war indicating it is not as strong as once thought. If Ukraine can hold its own against Russia, so too can a much larger Europe.

What perhaps pissed off Europe the most was that the document called out its “civilization decline.” Unfortunately, that is the reality, and Europe has to recognize that advanced welfare states cannot run a policy of open borders without severe consequences. Simply put, in a generation Europe will not be the Europe of history. Net net, the policy calls for the U.S. to be an offshore balancer with respect to the world outside of Latin America. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/08/my-review-of-andrew-lamberts-no-more.html )

Trump, Putin, and Ukraine: Part 2

Last week we wrote up what we thought was a successful conclusion to the Trump-European-Ukraine meeting in Washington D.C. ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/08/trump-putin-and-ukraine-now-comes-hard.html ) Unfortunately, little did we realize that Trump and his hapless special ambassador Steve Witkoff, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, were played for suckers by Putin. Put bluntly, Putin did not agree to security guarantees from the Europeans to be coordinated by the United States. Putin wants all of the Donbass and no European troops in Ukraine.  

So what is to be done now? The U.S. and Europe should step up arms shipments to Ukraine and greenlight Ukrainian attacks deep into Russia. In addition both the U.S. and Europe should sanction Russia to the max. The attacks have already begun with Russia's energy infrastructure now under long range attack. Gas lines are now forming in Russia. In addition, as we have argued in the past, Ukraine should set ablaze the Russian oilfields in Western Siberia. The path to a negotiated settlement requires Russia to feel real pain putting the ball in Trump's court. Hopefully that will happen.   

Trump, Putin, and Ukraine: Now Comes the Hard Part

I have been writing about Ukraine since 2014 (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-ukraine-what-is-to-be-done.html ) and as recently as last March. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/03/shame.html ) Yesterday’s White House summit meeting with European leaders and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky reversed the very negative vibes set off by Friday’s Trump-Putin Alaska summit where it was feared that Trump was about to sell out Ukraine. The conversations were both serious and friendly and it seems that there was a real reproachment between Trump and Zelensky.

 

However, the hard part is now ahead of us. It remains to be seen whether or not Putin will actually meet with Zelensky. Today Switzerland offered up its good offices as a meeting site. Should that happen, it would open the way for a trilateral summit with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky.

 

What has to be ironed out is the precise border between Ukraine and the Russian held provinces. That border would have to be defensible, which means that the current Ukrainian position in the Donetsk region would have to be maintained, something that Russia is opposed to. Another question is what the European security guarantee would cover.  For example, would it include troops on ground, air support and rebuilding assistance? Perhaps more important what would be the modalities of the United States’ role as security coordinator. Would it include intelligence sharing, military hardware, and air support? Although Trump has ruled out combat troops, would it allow for support troops involved in training. And don’t forget Putin has a vote in all of this.

 

Nevertheless, for the first time since the war started over three years ago there is a pathway to a settlement. It certainly won’t be perfect because Putin’s aggression would be rewarded, but it will enable Ukraine to be a viable and prosperous state. Remember, diplomacy is the art of the possible.

SHAME

I never felt so ashamed for my country than I did yesterday when I watched President Trump bully Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the oval office in front of a worldwide television audience. In Trump’s mind Zelensky was guilty of not kissing his ass so Trump stood foursquare for Putin’s aggression in Ukraine and in the process seemed to abandon the Western Alliance. I really should not have been surprised because his administration threw Ukraine under the bus at the Munich Security Conference two weeks ago. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/02/trump-and-new-hitler-stalin-pact.html) 

As I noted then what Trump is doing is not appeasement, but rather he has made the U.S. a co-aggressor with Putin’s Russia. This will end badly with China being the only real winner. If there is a small silver lining here it will be to rouse Europe from its slumber by forcing a massive increase in its hitherto inadequate military expenditures.

In the aftermath of Trump’s bullying, I was nauseated to watch his sycophants cheer him on. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and Senator Lindsay Graham all belong in the hall of shame. Trump wanted a cabinet of suck-ups; he certainly has one.

 

Trump and the New Hitler-Stalin Pact

In the early morning hours of August 24th,1939 Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov and German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop entered into a pact that would ratify the division of Poland and the ceding of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Bessarabia to the Soviets. The press would soon call it the Hitler-Stalin Pact that enabled Germany to invade Poland on September 1st and Soviet Russia to invade three weeks later. 

Today President Trump, echoing Russian propaganda, called Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky a "dictator" and accused him of starting the war in Ukraine, a complete lie. Put bluntly, Trump has thrown Ukraine under the bus. My guess is that Putin called in all his cronies and broke out the vodka in celebration of a new Hitler-Stalin Pact. And to put icing on the cake for Putin, Defense Secretary Hegseth announced substantial budget cuts for the Pentagon.  Instead of dividing Poland, Trump and Putin are setting the predicate for the division of Ukraine. The result in 1939 was a World War. I fear a Trump-Putin condominium will lead to a similar result. 

For previous posts on Ukraine, see for example: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-ukraine-what-is-to-be-done.html and https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2022/03/mr-zelinskyy-goes-to-washington-via-zoom.html.

Donald Trump, Four Weeks in: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Donald Trump’s second inauguration certainly did not take its cues from Lincoln’s second where he said, “with malice towards none and charity for all.”  It is turning out like a vengeance tour where he is flooding the zone with a host of initiatives, some of questionable legality. However, he is keeping his campaign promises and is acting in sharp contrast to the somnolescent Biden Administration.  Below is my take on the good, bad, and ugly so far. To be sure it is arbitrary, and it is no way a full list with the bad and ugly massively outweighing the good.

The Good

• A few good cabinet appointments: Marco Rubio at State, Scott Bessent at Treasury, Doug Burgum at Interior and Elise Stefanik, at the U.N.

• Doing away with DEI in the federal government and its contractors.

• Joining social-democratic Europe with restrictions on gender reassignment care for minors.

• Banning biological males from participating in women/girls’ sports.

• Although it can turn ugly fast, passing the Laiken Riley Act and a crackdown on unlawful undocumented immigrants. Tough actions on border security are long overdue. 

• Cracking down on campus antisemitism.

• Unambiguous support for Israel.

The Bad 

• DOGE, Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Although the New York City power broker Robert Moses taught us you can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs, Musk is going way too far in his noble attempt to cut government waste. He is using a butcher knife instead of a scalpel. As a result, many hard-working government employees are living under what they rightly perceive as a reign of terror. Simply put, it is very hard to improve the efficiency of government with a demoralized work force.

The Ugly  

• Pardoning the January 6th rioters.

• Decapitating the FBI, Justice Department and the CIA, leaving us vulnerable to acts of terrorism.

• Horrendous cabinet appointments featuring incompetent and vile people. Namely, Pete Hegseth at Defense, RFK, Jr. at HHS, Tulsi Gabbard at National Intelligence, and Kash Patel at the FBI. Yet again the Republicans in the Senate have proved themselves to be moral eunuchs in approving these appointments, with Patel pending. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-party-of-moral-eunuchs.html) With Hegseth, Gabbard and Patel, our security is at risk.

• Starting a trade war with our allies Canada, Mexico, E.U. and Japan. This is a sure-fire way to increase inflation and to lower growth. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/02/the-tariffman-strikes.html)

• Practically surrendering Ukraine on a platter to Putin at the Munich Security Conference. 

• Dropping the bribery prosecution of NYC Mayor Eric Adams.

My Review of Williamson Murray's "The Dark Path: War and the Rise of the West"

 War Through the Ages

The late Williamson Murray, a military historian at Ohio State, has written a tour de force history of war from the 1500’s to the present. He argues convincingly that the intense competition for the mastery of Europe led to advances in military technology and the infrastructure of war making were responsible for European success in mastering the globe.  His other thesis is that wars are not won by decisive battles, but rather by brute numbers, organization, economics, finance, and logistics. 

For example, Napoleon’s victory at Jena, which so impressed Hegel and Ludendorff’s victory at Tannenberg did not determine the outcome of the Napoleonic Wars and World War I, respectively. Napoleon lost because the coalition against him was far better organized and financed and had numbers on their side. Similarly, Germany and its allies lost world War I because with America’s entry into the war they were outnumbered and out financed. However, “time and chance happen to all” or in Clausewitz’s word “friction” and at times friction can overcome a lack of resources. For example, Ukraine is still in the fight, but it appears that heroic country was just sold-out by Trump.

Williamson discusses at length the various revolutions in military affairs. He starts with gun powder rendering castle walls obsolete and he goes on to discuss innovations in sailing that happened 100 years later that enhanced naval power. The most important revolution was the merger of the French Revolution with its levee en masse with the industrial revolution which made war total by making the civilian population enmeshed in warfighting. The flowering of that would occur in the American Civil War where the North was far better organized with far better logistics to overcome the South. The war lasted as long as it did because of poor generalship on the part of the North and better generalship on the part of the South.

If there is a hero in the book, it is Otto von Bismarck, whose strategic vision unified Germany with three wars. He had strategic focus and fully understood Clausewitz’s dictum, “that war is the extension of politics by more violent means.” Thus, the lack of strategic vision is road to ruin in wartime. For example, Bismarck understood that after victory against Austria he chose not seize any territory and that ultimately made Austria an ally.

For recent history Murray relies on the work of Andrew Marshall, the longtime head of the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment. ( A biography on Marshall was reviewed here: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2015/04/my-amazon-review-of-andrew-krepinevichs.html ) In that biography I noted, “As the Cold War was winding down in the mid-1980s he focused his attention on the rise of China and was quick to point out how the revolution in military affairs (precision weapons, computerized command and control and information warfare) in the 1990s would significantly change the nature of future battlefields.” Indeed, this is how Murray viewed Marshall’s work. Further Murray noted that Marshall was among the first to see the Soviets lacked the economic strength and the scientific bench to keep up with the U.S. in 1980’s, which highlighted the fact that war involves far more than kinetic battlefields.

Although “The Dark Path” is a long book, it offers a kaleidoscopic view of the history of war over the past 500 years. It is not for the casual reader, but for those interested in understanding how our world came into being, it is well worth the effort.

My Amazon Review of David Sanger's "New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion....."

Pre-War, Not New Cold Wars

 

New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger is way too close to his sources, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage. It is an advantage because Sanger puts us behind the scenes to give us a very real sense of the diplomatic events of the past four years, especially the tick-tock of America’s warning to the world about the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.  It is a disadvantage, because instead of being a clear-eyed reporter, he was sucked into the world views of Sullivan and Blinken, an apologia, if you will.  He buys into the idea that we will give enough aid to prevent a Russian win, but not enough to allow for a Ukraine victory.

 

In 2014 after Russia’s invasion of Crimea, I noted that this would the start of something big and both the U.S. and Europe would have to respond forcefully. (See:  Shulmaven: The Ukraine: What is to be Done )However, both the E.U. and the Obama White House accepted Russia’s aggression as a fait accompli. Thus, too me it was no surprise that given the lack of will in the West, that Putin would sooner or later go in for the kill.

 

 

If you want to put dates on the start of the new cold wars between the United States and Russia and China, you can start at the 2007 Munich Security Conference where Putin decisively separated himself from the West. In the case of China, you can use Chairman Xi’s 2013 address to the Communist Party where he girded the party cadre to prepare for the struggles ahead. Simply put, the whole policy framework that brought China into the global economy was a failure. In both cases Russia and China returned to their dictatorial roots with Putin viewing himself as the “new Tsar” and Xi as the “new Mao.” (See: Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy's " Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin")

 

Sanger rightly spends much time on the ongoing cyber war with both Russia and China being aggressors attacking both governmental and private web sites. It is here where such private companies as Microsoft, Google and Palantir play leading roles in defense of our country. We also can’t forget Elon Musk’s StarLink system initially saved the day in Ukraine.

 

Sanger picks up on Sullivan’s industrial policy views where the U.S. is now in the business of subsidizing America’s chip production. Because computer chips are at the core of both the modern economy and defense hardware, it makes little sense to import most of our chips from abroad, especially where the bulk of those chips come from very vulnerable Taiwan. (  Shulmaven: My Review* of Chris Miller's "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology") Indeed, in the new Cold War, Taiwan is the new Berlin.

 

Sanger is too casual in his discussion of the new Russo-Chinese alliance that was formed at the Beijing Olympics in 2022 where the two partners stated their relationship was “without limits.” Hello, this foreign policy nightmare happened on the Biden Administration’s watch.  If Kissinger got credit for splitting the Soviets from China, shouldn’t the Sullivan/Blinken team get the blame. Within days Russia invaded Ukraine.

 

What is wrong with Sanger’s book is that he does not discuss defense policy. If we are in new Cold Wars with Russia and China, our stagnant defense budget certainly does not reflect that. Biden in his 2023 State of the Union address called attention to Franklin Roosevelt’s 1941 address discussing how dangerous our world has become. However, he did not mention that a week before Roosevelt called for America to become “the arsenal of democracy.”  ( See:  Shulmaven: President Biden's State of the Union: Strong on Form Weak on Substance) The defense budget would quadruple in the following year.  Similarly, Biden has yet to make the equivalent of the 1947 Truman Doctrine speech and Sanger has not reported any national security council memorandum equivalent to the 1950 NSC-68 which called for “a massive build-up of conventional and nuclear weapons.”

 

Sanger hardly discusses Iran and North Korea who are objectively aligned with Russia and China, a serious omission. It seems to me the world is a far more dangerous place than the new cold wars that Sanger suggests that are now with us. To me, we are in a far more dangerous pre-war period that we are ill-prepared to deal with it. (See: Shulmaven: Shulmaven Anticipates Hal Brands Foreign Affairs Article on Pre-WW II and Today)

For the full amazon Review see: Pre-War, Not New Cold Wars (amazon.com)

 

 

Joe "No Win" Biden

President Biden has done it again. He doesn’t believe in winning. Just as at the start of the Russia-Ukraine War when the Biden provided enough aid to prevent Ukraine’s defeat, but not enough for Ukraine to win, it now appears he is doing the same thing with respect to the Israel-Hamas War. Last night he announced on CNN that the U.S. will stop the shipments of offensive military aid to Israel should it invade the heart of the Hamas stronghold of Rafah. He also has suspended the shipment of 3500 bombs and thousands of artillery shells.

 

To be sure civilian casualties have been high in the Gaza War, but it is in the nature of the Hamas enemy who cares little about the death of its own people. To them every casualty makes Israel look bad in the eyes of the world. Thus, it is in their interests to increase the body count. When facing an enemy like this, what choice does Israel have?

 

If Biden thinks that will hasten the cease fire negotiations with Hamas, he is sorely mistaken. Hamas will continue to play its waiting game in the hopes that Israel will cave under U.S. pressure. Meantime more Israeli hostages will die in captivity, and it will likely make Hezbollah more aggressive in the north. Remember those bombs and artillery shells are needed to defend Israel in the north.

 

All Biden’s actions will do is to prolong the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The quicker Hamas is defeated in Gaza the quicker the war will end. Never forget that Hamas is the aggressor. ( See: Shulmaven: Hamas Aggression Must be Punished ) A partial arms embargo on Israel is perhaps one of the most counter-productive things Biden has done. Selling out an ally does not do Biden proud and his action will have consequences around the world, especially in Taiwan.

The House Gets it Right, at Last.

Yesterday under the leadership of House Speaker Michael Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the House of Representatives passed the $95 billion foreign aid supplemental that will send needed military supplies to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. (See: Shulmaven: Israel, Iran and the Nazi Gaza War Protesters ) And for good measure the House threw in a forced sale/ban on Tick Tock. 

The leadership succeeded in overcoming challenges from the anti-Israel Hamas Caucus in the Democratic Party and the Putinista Wrecker Caucus apparently being led by Moscow Marjorie Taylor Green in the Republican Party. At last, the center finally held. The measure now moves on to the Senate where it will hopefully pass on Tuesday, much to the relief of the struggling Ukrainian defenders. With shouts of "Churchill not Chamberlain" it seems that the House is beginning to recognize that we are in a prewar situation and has to act accordingly.

Further, in another victory for the center, Congress passed a two year reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) which enable warrantless surveillance outside of the United States even if it involves contact with U.S. citizens. This law has served us well for over four decades.

Speaker Michael Johnson put his job on the line with his actions and let us hope that he understands that standing up to the bullies in his own party, will strengthen him, rather than bring him down.

Time for a Discharge Petition

Time is running out for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The Senate just passed a $95 billion appropriation for assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Putin's murder of Russian democrat Alexei Navalny reinforces the need for immediate action. However, Putin puppet Speaker of the House Mike Brown is holding up action on the legislation. It is he and the Putinista caucus in the Republican Party along with the anti-Israel Hamas caucus within the Democratic Party that are working against the desperately needed aid package. It is important to remember that the Hamas caucus and the Putinista caucus have one thing in common: they both hate America.

Thus when the House reconvenes from its recess on February 28th it will be time for Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies to work in concert with the remaining internationalists in the Republican Party to orchestrate a discharge petition to put the legislation up for a vote on the House floor. Sure it will take political courage for Republicans to vote against their speaker, but that is what they get paid the big bucks for.  Failure to pass the legislation will put us one step closer to the next big war. (See:  Shulmaven: Shulmaven Anticipates Hal Brands Foreign Affairs Article on Pre-WW II and Today)   

Shulmaven Anticipates Hal Brands Foreign Affairs Article on Pre-WW II and Today

In an article entitled "The Next Global War: How Today's Regional Conflicts Resemble the Ones that Produced World War II" on January 26th in Foreign Affairs, Hal Brands, the Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote as follows See:https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/next-global-war) :

"World War II was the aggregation of three regional crises: Japan’s rampage in China and the Asia-Pacific; Italy’s bid for empire in Africa and the Mediterranean; and Germany’s push for hegemony in Europe and beyond. In some ways, these crises were always linked. Each was the work of an autocratic regime with a penchant for coercion and violence. Each involved a lunge for dominance in a globally significant region. Each contributed to what U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, in 1937, called a spreading “epidemic of world lawlessness.” Even so, this wasn’t an integrated mega-conflict from the outset."

and:

"The parallels between this earlier era and the present are striking. Today, as in the 1930s, the international system is facing three sharp regional challenges. China is rapidly amassing military might as part of its campaign to eject the United States from the western Pacific—and, perhaps, become the world’s preeminent power. Russia’s war in Ukraine is the murderous centerpiece of its long-standing effort to reclaim primacy in eastern Europe and the former Soviet space. In the Middle East, Iran and its coterie of proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and many others—are waging a bloody struggle for regional dominance against Israel, the Gulf monarchies, and the United States. Once again, the fundamental commonalities linking the revisionist states are autocratic governance and geopolitical grievance; in this case, a desire to break a U.S.-led order that deprives them of the greatness they desire. Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran are the new “have not” powers, struggling against the “haves”: Washington and its allies.

Two of these challenges have already turned hot. The war in Ukraine is also a vicious proxy contest between Russia and the West; Russian President Vladimir Putin is buckling down for a long, grinding struggle that could last for years. Hamas’s attack on Israel last October—enabled, if perhaps not explicitly blessed, by Tehran—triggered an intense conflict that is creating violent spillover across that vital region. Iran, meanwhile, is creeping toward nuclear weapons, which could turbocharge its regional revisionism by indemnifying its regime against an Israeli or U.S. response. In the western Pacific and mainland Asia, China is still relying mostly on coercion short of war. But as the military balance shifts in sensitive spots such as the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, Beijing will have better options—and perhaps a bigger appetite—for aggression."

Shulmaven wrote last November (Shulmaven: Reliving the 1930's - Part 5 ), in far more concise prose, something very similar to Brand's core idea. We are gratified that our thoughts are very similar to that of such a distinguished scholar of global strategy as Professor Brands.  Indeed we recently reviewed his most recent book on strategy. (See: Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Hal Brands' Ed. "The New Makers of Modern Strategy...." ) Our thoughts of last November are highlighted below and if anything our view has been amplified by last week's U.S. response to a drone at attack on a Jordan base that killed three Americans.

"We started this series in March 2014 ( Shulmaven: Reliving the 1930s)  with Putin taking Crimea and using his proxies in eastern Ukraine and the last one was in April 2017 with  Trump’s and Obama’s vacillation in Syria in 2013 and 2017. ( Shulmaven: Reliving the 1930s - Part 4) With this blog I go further in that I now believe that we are no longer in the Post-Cold War Era, but rather we are now in what future historians will call a pre-war era.

 

Instead of facing the Berlin-Rome-Tokyo Axis we now face the Russia-China-Iran North Korea Axis We see this new axis playing out in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Taiwan Straits. All the signs were there in the 1930’s with Japan invading Manchuria in 1931 and the heart of China in 1937; Italy invading Abyssinia in 1935, and Germany reoccupying the Rhineland in 1936. However, it was not until 1938 that they were taken seriously."

My Amazon Review of Yaroslav Trofimov's "Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's....."

Ukraine at War

 

The Wall Street Journal’s Yaroslav Trofimov is the best war reporter in the business. Here, in a very personal account, Trofimov covers the first year of Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invaders that began on February 24, 2022.  To Trofimov the war is very personal as he was born and grew up in Kyiv. The places he knew as boy were now targets of Russian bombs and missiles. Indeed, Trofimov was in Kyiv when the shooting started.

 

As a reporter he was present at the major battles of the war starting with Russia’s failed air assault on Hostomel Airport. Had that attack succeeded the war would have been over in weeks. At great personal risk he covered Ukraine’s initial counterattack from the Kyiv front which pushed back the Russian forces. Indeed, while I was following the war from afar, I witnessed on YouTube a perfectly executed ambush of Russian tank forces. I was far away and safe; Trofimov was up close and many times he was at great personal risk.

 

Trofimov takes us to the battles Izyum, Kharkiv and Kherson where once great cities were leveled to the ground by artillery and drone attacks. Much of the success of the Ukrainian army can be attributed to the West supplying Javelin antitank missiles and the HIMARS mobile rocket system. To be sure Ukraine was grateful for the western aid, but in many cases, it was too little too late. Trofimov argues, and I agree, that had the West gone all in from the beginning Ukraine would have won the war in a year. Had the aid come earlier the meatgrinder of Bakhmut would have likely been avoided where Ukrainian forces battled it out with Yevgeny Prigozhin Wagner Group of criminals.

 

Aside from covering the war in the field, Trofimov interviews Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and army chief Valeriy Zaluzhy. And he covers the arrival of the various European heads of state that show up in Kyiv to offer moral support and additional arms,

 

Trofimov is correct in viewing the start of the war in 2014 with Russia’s takeover of Crimea. I argued then that it was a wake-up call for the West. ( See: Shulmaven: The Ukraine: What is to be Done ) Unfortunately, that warning was unheeded and now after much devastation the war enters its third year. Where are the promised F-16 fighter jets? Ukraine still waits.

 

Trofimov gave us his first draft of history with his Wall Street Journal stories. This book represents the second draft and hopefully there will soon be a third draft that ends with a Russian retreat from all Ukrainian territory. 

For the full Amazon URL see: Ukraine at War (amazon.com)

Sleepwalking on the Road to Perdition

 With Trump's 12 point victory over Nikki Haley last night in New Hampshire, it seems that we are getting the 2024 election that most Americans did not want. You can't argue that America is a forward looking country with two octogenarians vying for the presidency. Trump is looking backward to the 1950's where he grew up and to the 1930's antecedents to his America First ideas, while Biden is still stuck in 1970's industrial policy time warp and the extreme cultural liberalism of the1972 McGovern campaign which has been adopted by most of the Democratic Party. 

Meantime the world has become more dangerous by the day with the new axis of evil consisting of China, Russia and Iran threatening U.S. interests around the world. While both candidates will likely focus on domestic issues, it is important to note policy mistakes in the domestic area can be reversed with subsequent elections, foreign policy mistakes are not so easily reversible. This is especially true with the wrecker caucus Republicans holding up much needed aid to Ukraine and Israel. (See: Shulmaven: Crunch Time for Ukraine, Israel and the Border ) If Biden were to show some leadership he should make a deal on the Border with the Republicans and get that issue behind him. If not, my guess is that the Republicans will sweep in November.

Further Biden has to get out of his sleepwalking mode and, if he is capable, he has to run an all-out campaign a la 1948 Harry Truman against the do nothing Congress. However, that "if" is a BFD, as Biden would say. To continue the Truman analogy, Biden should give an all-out speech calling for a big increase in the defense budget to deal with the axis of evil. Otherwise I fear that we would be sleepwalking on the road to perdition.

2024: Volatile Politics, Volatile Markets and the Fed Joins CREEP

Shulmaven did not cover itself in glory in 2023. (See: Shulmaven: 2023: Another Year of Living Dangerously ) We got much of it wrong:

* The economy did not enter a recession.

*Stocks did not trade in a broad range of 4200-3300 and instead approached its all-time high of 4800.

*Bitcoin didn't collapse to below $10,000 and and instead more than doubled to over $40,000.

*Trump was not a spent force and he now seems cruising towards nomination.

* The market has yet to recognize we have entered a new 13-year cycle.

We got a few things right:

*The Fed remained on the warpath for much of the year and wage gains remained solid.

*10-Year Treasury yields stayed above 4% for much of the year. Coincidentally  the yield ended where it stated at 3.9%

* Ukraine struck deep into Russia with missiles and sabotage as global tensions remained high.

Now, in the spirit of being often wrong and never in doubt here are my views for 2024:

* With the S&P 500 trading just below its all-time high and the VIX index at 12, I believe 2024 will be year of high volatility coming from volatile international and domestic politics. Think 1968.

* The stock market appears to be ignoring the warning of former Secretary of Defense and CIA Director Robert Gates where he noted in the November/December issue of Foreign Affairs "The United States now confronts graver threats to its security than it has in decades, perhaps ever."

* In retaliation for attacks on Ukraine's power plants, Ukraine will set ablaze several of Russia's prize West Siberian oilfields.

* Israel will defeat Hamas sufficiently to declare a victory and by yearend Saudi Arabia will be on track to join the Abraham Accords. (See: Shulmaven: Hamas Aggression Must be Punished)

*Domestically all of the signs point to a Trump victory for the Republican nomination and his victory in November, hardly a confidence building eventuality. Nevertheless, I am not yet predicting a Trump victory; I think it is a 50/50 call as of today.

* The Fed will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession in 2024. Their recent pivot is a step in that direction.  Objectively the Fed will join the Committee to Re-Elect the President. (CREEP, the name of Nixon's campaign in 1972.) As a pillar of the establishment and fearful of its independence, the Fed will effectively be all-in for Biden. Thus the Fed will plant the seeds for a very problematic 2025.

* Core CPI will likely run at a 2-2.5% rate in the first half, but accelerate to a 3% run rate by yearend. As a result the yield on the 10-Year Treasury will once again be north of 4%. In keeping with my view that we are in a new 13-year economic cycle, wage growth will remain solid.

* In this environment the S&P 500 should trade in a broad range of 5000-4200, approaching both ends more than once during the year, with the VIX exceeding 30 at least once during the year. Consistent with the past month, the S&P 493 will outperform the Magnificent Seven.

Crunch Time for Ukraine, Israel and the Border

 As I write this an ad hoc Senate committee is attempting to forge a broad border security bill that would attract 60 votes in the Senate thereby paving the way for passing much needed aid to Ukraine and Israel. It is frightening that the national security interests of the United States is being compromised by the Republican wrecker caucus. 

Perhaps more dangerous is the fact that the Republican Party is now home to a Putinista caucus as well that likely will vote against Ukraine aid no matter what the Senate Democrats and Biden offer up on immigration. Indeed the best that can happen to the Democrats is to make a deal on immigration, because if they don't put this issue behind them they could very well be a gonner in the next election.

Not to be out done the Hamas caucus within the Democratic Party will likely vote against any aid to Israel. Thus if any bill comes out of the Senate it will likely be a coalition of the centrists of both parties and I would like to point out that once again my favorite Senator, Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is leading the charge to forge a workable bill. 

However the question remains whether or not the House, which is not in session, would actually pass any Senate compromise. In that body the Putinista caucus would rather have an issue than passing substantive legislation. 

Last week marked the 82nd anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor. It would be tragic if Congress' failure to act on Ukraine aid will be remembered as a week of infamy.

Reliving the 1930's - Part 5

We started this series in March 2014 ( Shulmaven: Reliving the 1930s)  with Putin taking Crimea and using his proxies in eastern Ukraine and the last one was in April 2017 with  Trump’s and Obama’s vacillation in Syria in 2013 and 2017. ( Shulmaven: Reliving the 1930s - Part 4) With this blog I go further in that I now believe that we are no longer in the Post-Cold War Era, but rather we are now in what future historians will call a pre-war era.

 

Instead of facing the Berlin-Rome-Tokyo Axis we now face the Russia-China-Iran North Korea Axis We see this new axis playing out in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Taiwan Straits. All the signs were there in the 1930’s with Japan invading Manchuria in 1931 and the heart of China in 1937; Italy invading Abyssinia in 1935, and Germany reoccupying the Rhineland in 1936. However, it was not until 1938 that they were taken seriously.

 

In terms of economic policy protectionism was the order of the day in the 1930’s and we now witness the Biden Administration continuing and amplifying Trump’s protectionist trade policies. Although Biden’s trade policies conflict, he remains a committed internationalist. However, the Republican Party is reverting to its 1930’s form with its America First withdrawal from the world.

 

At home America’s college campuses look like prewar Germany where in many cases it is no longer safe for Jews to walk freely to class. Although anti-Zionism has always been a cover for antisemitism, recent events have ripped off all of its pretentions of being anti-Israel while still liking Jews. Nevertheless, unlike the 1930’s, Jews in America have more to fear from the Left than from the Right when the Father Coughlin’s of the world ruled the airwaves.

 

Further unlike the 1930’s when America had real leadership under Franklin Roosevelt, today’s divided government is challenged by a Putinista faction in the Republican Party that is implicitly allied with the new axis of evil. Be warned the clock is ticking.

  

The Night of the Long Knives Comes to Russia

 On the night of June 30, 1934, Hitler launched what was to be called the night of the long knives against Ernst Rohm the leader of the paramilitary SA brownshirts and other opponents of his regime.  In what appears to be happening in reverse in Russia is that Yevgeny Prigozhin the leader of the private army Wagner Group is launching a coup against Vladimir Putin.

 

Although the situation remains fluid, Prigozhin has seized Russian Army headquarters in Rostov on the Don and a convoy is barreling north to Moscow facing little or no opposition. The Wagner Group is the most battle-hardened military force in Russia, and it remains to be seen whether or not they will be opposed by regular troops in the Russian Army. However, the force will likely face opposition from the air and the troops under the control of the FSB security service.

 

In the meantime, Ukrainian forces will likely take advantage of Russia’s lack of command and control and the absence of Wagner Group soldiers to step up their offensive to retake their lost territories.  It is very possible that the Russian Army in Ukraine will soon collapse.

 

Outside of the Ukraine theatre Wagner is very active in Syria, Mali, and Venezuela.  What happens to Russian influence in those places is now an open question. As Lenin once remarked “there are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.”

Random Thoughts on the Economy and the Stock Market- No. 2

Because I received surprisingly good feedback on last week's blog, I am going to push my luck with this one.

* The surprisingly strong employment report for January which indicated a gain of 517k in nonfarm payrolls and was confirmed by an 894K gain in household employment. Further there were cumulative upward revisions to the payroll survey of 813k jobs. The ebullience in the job market sent the unemployment rate down to a cyclical low of 3.4%. All of this means that the Fed Funds rate will be higher for longer and those looking for a pivot in 2023 are in for a disappointment.

* Even after Friday's interruption, NASDAQ is up an astounding 14.7% YTD. To me this means the excesses of the pandemic bubble have yet to be purged from the market. 

*The Chinese spy balloon incident and news that Iran is building a drone factory in Russia makes it less likely there will be any cuts in defense spending. Indeed there will likely be an increase above current planning.

* The biggest geopolitical event thus far this year has been the unusually warm weather in Europe rendering Russia's energy weapon mute, thereby strengthening European solidarity in support of Ukraine.