The Purim War: Part 2

 We are now nine days into the Purim War (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-purim-war.html ) where the U.S. and Israeli air forces are pounding the Islamic Republic of Iran. With Iran attacking Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States the war has widened to encompass the entire Persian Gulf with shipping all but shut down in the Straits of Hormuz. At this writing the price of WTI Oil has skyrocketed to $106/barrel. The attacks on the Sunni Arab states are all part of Iran's plan to create chaos in the Gulf to force the U.S. to backdown. In addition as we noted Israel has taken the opportunity to respond to Hezbollah attacks to pound them in Lebanon with the Lebanese government intervening on the side of Israel for the first time.

All of this was expected, but if we step back the Israelis and the Americans have made great progress. Iran's air defenses have been neutralized, weapons warehouses have been bombed, police stations have been taken out and earlier today a major oil depot in Tehran was set ablaze. Tehran was suffering from a severe water shortage before the war, the hit to the depot will only exacerbate an already bad situation.

Make not mistake, from both the Israeli and the American points of view the war is progressing well. Within in two weeks much of Iran's offensive capabilities will be eliminated and with that the Straits of Hormuz will have been cleared.

Today Iran selected Motjaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, as its supreme leader thereby undoing a promise of the 1979 revolution to not allow hereditary changes in the leadership. The delay in his appointment signaled major divisions within Iran's ruling circles. By the way Motjaba just happens to own a mansion in London.  My guess is that Motjaba will soon have the same fate as his late father. Once that happens the way will be open for disgruntled members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to seize power and open the way for a political settlement. They will be pushed into it when they lose control of the streets of Tehran to the populace and the oil workers at the giant Abadan refinery strike.

The Purim War

 About 2,382 years ago Esther and Mordechai ousted the Jew-hater Haman, first minister of Persia; an event that is now celebrated as Purim by Jews all over the world. In an eerie coincidence Purim starts on Monday evening March 2^nd. This time, instead of Haman being killed, the bulk of the Iranian leadership including the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in precision airstrikes by the Israeli air force. The U.S./Israeli effort’s goal is to topple the Iranian regime that has long threatened the region and was yet again reconstituting its nuclear and missile programs. With Iranian negotiators practicing “rope-a-dope” tactics with U.S. negotiators, President Trump’s patience ran out, and he unleashed an air and naval armada on the Iranian regime.

 

My sense is that Trump’s logic was the Iranian regime was weakened by the mass protests against it in January triggered by its collapsing economy. The regime responded with brute force and killed anywhere between 30,000-50,000 people. As they say in China, the Iranian mullahs “lost their mandate from heaven.” It will now be up to the Iranian people to establish a new course.

 

What happens next depends on the staying power of the remnants of the regime and the willingness of the U.S. and Israel to sustain a long campaign. Meantime, by attacking U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, Iran lost the neutrality of the Arab gulf further isolating them. The other thing to think about is whether or not Israel will take advantage of the situation to cleanup its unfinished business with Hezbollah and Hamas.

 

Of course, it goes without saying, the Democrats are up in arms against Trump making war without congressional authorization. However, a careful reading of the war powers act means that what Trump did, as commander in chief, was legal so far. However, he does have to report to Congress on the war, and Congress will have a say. My sense is that Iran 2026 is not Iraq of 2003 but then again time will tell. But make no mistake, the middle east will not be what it was as of last Friday.

My Review of Yaakov Katz's and Amir Bohbot's "While Israel Slept"

Confirmation Bias

Veteran Israeli journalists Yaakov Katz and Amir Bohbot have put together a well-sourced and deeply researched indictment of the vaunted Israeli intelligence services and Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu in their failure to anticipate the deadly Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. In the bluntest of terms, they were guilty of confirmation bias in which their tunnel vision refused to see the signs of the coming attack by Hamas.

 

They thought Hamas was interested in growing the Gaza economy and the intelligence services had their attention centered on Iran, Hezbollah, and the West Bank. They refused to believe reports coming from the Gaza watchers on the border and, in fact, they did not have a single spy on the ground in Gaza. They relied too much on technical superiority, rather than human intelligence.

 

Hamas, on the other hand had excellent intelligence on what the Israeli’s were up to. They know where the cameras and sensors were, and they knew down to the minute details where troops were stationed and where the safe rooms of the nearby kibbutzim were located.

 

Katz and Bohbot pull no punches in describing the ideology of Hamas. Simply put, Hamas is a terrorist organization dedicated to the destruction of Israel. They do not believe in the so-called two state solution. They believe on one state that does not include the Jews of Israel. Why gullible westerners support such barbarism will be the topic of another blog.

 

The authors highlight the huge military buildup that was taking place in Gaza. Starting with the Morsi regime in Egypt which smuggled in weapons manufacturing and construction equipment in 2012. That enabled Hamas to produce heavy weapon and to construct a labyrinth of tunnels underneath Gaza. Israel has no idea as to the full extent of Hamas’ underground city.

Indeed, Hamas war using western and Arab aid to build a war machine. Further they invested some of that aid into a host of front companies to generate income. One of those companies was actually listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange.

 

Nevertheless, there were warnings. In 2016 the defense minister urged a pre-emptive strike on Gaza. That was turned down out fear of high casualties. Israel’s 2014 incursion into Gaza did not go as well as planned with casualties far higher than expected.

 

Among the many recommendations Katz and Bohbot recommend are:

·      * Establish a Director of National Intelligence to coordinate the various security agencies. I would also create a Team B to critique the DNI conclusions.

·     *  Create a Department of Informational Warfare. Hamas propaganda has been running rings around Israel.

·      *  Change the defense posture from deterrence to active defense.

 

To conclude I believe that this book should at least be a starting point for the coming investigation of Israel’s intelligence failures. The witnesses are in the book. Netanyahu and his cabinet will have a tough time in defending themselves from this indictment.

Israel and Iran: The Fog of War

 With Iran rushing headlong towards nuclear weapons, last Friday Israel engaged in a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear programs and its leadership exactly one day after President Trump’s 60-day deadline for a negotiated settlement expired. Iran immediately counter-striked with a barrage of missiles on Israel’s population centers. Since then, the world has been watching successive Israeli air raids on Tehran and Iranian missile attacks on Israel.

 

To Israel this is a war of necessity. Iran has promised to destroy Israel since the Ayatollahs came to power in 1979. Over the years Iran built up its proxy fighters in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. However, with the destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the removal of the Assad regime from power in Syria, and the degrading of Hamas in Gaza, Israel, for the first time, had a free hand to strike Iran.

 

Israel’s goal is to eliminate Iran’s capability to develop nuclear weapons. To that end it has decapitated much of the program’s leadership and has degraded parts of its facilities. However, Iran’s major uranium enrichment facility is buried 1500 feet below ground at Fordow. It is not clear that Israel has the ability to take out Fordow, which might require U.S bunker-busting bombs. If Fordow remains operational, the war would be a failure.

 

As of this writing it is unclear whether the U.S. will attack Fordow and risk a much wider war in the middle east. Alternatively, if the U.S. does not act, the risk of a nuclear Iran would be far greater. Absent Israel pulling a rabbit out of the hat, the ball is in Trump’s court.

 

What happens at Fordow will determine the course of the war and that will not be televised. Without U.S. support can Israel use special forces in a very risky operation and/or taking out the above ground infrastructure (electric power, water, ventilation) by air that keeps Fordow operational remains to be seen. We know Israel has a presence on the ground in Iran, but it is likely inadequate to overcome the heavily guarded and forewarned Fordow site. Remember, Israel cannot conquer Iran, it is pursuing a limited goal of removing Iran’s nuclear capability and that has to be done quickly because Israel doesn’t have the resources for a long war.

Stay tuned.

Joe "No Win" Biden

President Biden has done it again. He doesn’t believe in winning. Just as at the start of the Russia-Ukraine War when the Biden provided enough aid to prevent Ukraine’s defeat, but not enough for Ukraine to win, it now appears he is doing the same thing with respect to the Israel-Hamas War. Last night he announced on CNN that the U.S. will stop the shipments of offensive military aid to Israel should it invade the heart of the Hamas stronghold of Rafah. He also has suspended the shipment of 3500 bombs and thousands of artillery shells.

 

To be sure civilian casualties have been high in the Gaza War, but it is in the nature of the Hamas enemy who cares little about the death of its own people. To them every casualty makes Israel look bad in the eyes of the world. Thus, it is in their interests to increase the body count. When facing an enemy like this, what choice does Israel have?

 

If Biden thinks that will hasten the cease fire negotiations with Hamas, he is sorely mistaken. Hamas will continue to play its waiting game in the hopes that Israel will cave under U.S. pressure. Meantime more Israeli hostages will die in captivity, and it will likely make Hezbollah more aggressive in the north. Remember those bombs and artillery shells are needed to defend Israel in the north.

 

All Biden’s actions will do is to prolong the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The quicker Hamas is defeated in Gaza the quicker the war will end. Never forget that Hamas is the aggressor. ( See: Shulmaven: Hamas Aggression Must be Punished ) A partial arms embargo on Israel is perhaps one of the most counter-productive things Biden has done. Selling out an ally does not do Biden proud and his action will have consequences around the world, especially in Taiwan.

What's Missing from the Democratic Debates? Foreign Policy

If recent history is a guide, when the Democratic presidential candidates meet this Thursday for their their debate there will be little of no discussion on foreign policy. It seems that both the candidates and the Democratic electorate are not interested in foreign policy. I have news for them, soon foreign policy will be interested in them.

Just look at the world Trump is leaving for them. NATO is in disarray, the trade war with China is morphing into something much bigger, Hong Kong could soon turn into a bloodbath,  Israel and Hezbollah are about to go to war in Lebanon, Iran has resumed its nuclear program and North Korea continues to expand both its rocket and nuclear programs. And if this isn't enough nuclear armed India and Pakistan are at each other's throats over the Kashmir.

So if I were George Stephanopoulos, ABC's lead moderator, I would be prepping foreign policy questions. My guess is that before the first votes are cast in Iowa foreign policy will move to the top of mind of more than a few voters.