About 2,382 years ago Esther and Mordechai ousted the Jew-hater Haman, first minister of Persia; an event that is now celebrated as Purim by Jews all over the world. In an eerie coincidence Purim starts on Monday evening March 2nd. This time, instead of Haman being killed, the bulk of the Iranian leadership including the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in precision airstrikes by the Israeli air force. The U.S./Israeli effort’s goal is to topple the Iranian regime that has long threatened the region and was yet again reconstituting its nuclear and missile programs. With Iranian negotiators practicing “rope-a-dope” tactics with U.S. negotiators, President Trump’s patience ran out, and he unleashed an air and naval armada on the Iranian regime.
My sense is that
Trump’s logic was the Iranian regime was weakened by the mass protests against
it in January triggered by its collapsing economy. The regime responded with
brute force and killed anywhere between 30,000-50,000 people. As they say in China,
the Iranian mullahs “lost their mandate from heaven.” It will now be up to the
Iranian people to establish a new course.
What happens next depends
on the staying power of the remnants of the regime and the willingness of the
U.S. and Israel to sustain a long campaign. Meantime, by attacking U.S. bases
in Saudi Arabia, Iran lost the neutrality of the Arab gulf further isolating
them. The other thing to think about is whether or not Israel will take
advantage of the situation to cleanup its unfinished business with Hezbollah
and Hamas.
Of course, it goes
without saying, the Democrats are up in arms against Trump making war without
congressional authorization. However, a careful reading of the war powers act
means that what Trump did, as commander in chief, was legal so far. However, he
does have to report to Congress on the war, and Congress will have a say. My
sense is that Iran 2026 is not Iraq of 2003 but then again time will tell. But
make no mistake, the middle east will not be what it was as of last Friday.
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