Saturday, September 30, 2023

House Crushes MAGA Wrecker Caucus

The House of Representatives by an overwhelming 335-91 margin voted to keep our government open for another 45 days, thereby signaling a major defeat for the wrecker caucus within the House. Among the wreckers are Matt Gaetz, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Lauren Boebert and Margorie Taylor Greene. All of whom were being cheered on from the peanut gallery by Liddle Donnie Trump. It was good to see Democrats and Republicans working together for the common good and it remains to be seen whether Kevin McCarthy will remain speaker. The main drawback in the deal is the absence of funding for Ukraine. Hopefully that will be remedied next week.

I previously wrote about the wreckers in three prior blog posts. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2013/09/on-strike-shut-it-down.htmlhttps://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2013/10/after-action-report-on-government-shut.html, and https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2015/10/the-republican-wrecker-caucus-strikes.html)

Although the characters are different from 10 years ago, the goal remain the same and that is to stop the normal functioning of government to serve their own petty ends. Unfortunately the House Republicans continue to circle the drain, meaning this will not be the last time we have to put with the MAGA wreckers.




Wednesday, September 27, 2023

My Review* of Neil Howe's "The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History......"

 America in an Era of Crisis


I received this book as a gift. 

America is in crisis. Nothing seems to be working with dysfunction everywhere from Congress to the post office, to the airlines, to the housing market, to medical care, to the lack of civility and to extreme weather events. All of this is a symptom of what author Neil Howe calls the onset of the fourth turning. Howe builds on his earlier book written with William Strauss entitled “The Fourth Turning” which appeared in 1997. In that book the authors coined the term “millennial generation.”

 

According to Howe Anglo-American history going back to the War of the Roses follows a predicable 80–100-year Saeculum which is broken up into 20–30-year blocks. For example, the 80-year blocks of 1780-1860-1940-2020 would constitute three turnings. Each crisis era was forewarned by a war. The Revolutionary War crisis was preceded by the French and Indian War, the Civil War crisis by the Mexican War, the Great Depression/World War II crisis by World War I and the current crisis by 9/11 and its aftermath.

 

Thus, according to Howe, we will soon be entering the fourth turning which he estimates to start around 2033. Unfortunately, the fourth turning is usually accompanied by a major war or a civil war. As a result, the recent ugliness is only a precursor of worse things to come. However, once the crisis has passed a new dawn awaits us, as in the end of World War II.

 

Within each 80-year block there are four eras defined by the change in generations. The recent history looks like this in Howe’s terms:

Boom 1943-1960, High.

Gen X 1961-1981, Awakening.

Millennial 1982-06, Unraveling.

Homeland 2007-2033? Crisis

 

Each generation gives rise to a protype character. By Howe’s reckoning there are heroes, artists, nomads, and prophets. It is the heroes that resolve the crisis era that become the leaders of the next high cycle. Think Eisenhower, for example.

 

In Howe’s view the next Saeculum will be characterized by the rise of community over the Individual. The unmet tasks of the prior era will be handled by a far more egalitarian society. Taxes will be higher on the wealthy, but entitlement spending will be under control and government finally figures out to deliver services more efficiently with high investment in climate mitigation and drastic reforms in zoning that would once again make housing affordable. In other words, a very efficient social democracy.

 

I noticed a few errors in the book. The Four Freedoms were a product of World War II not World War I and the Treaty of Detroit was made in 1950, not 1946. Nevertheless, Howe gives us a new interpretation of our history and his insights are extraordinary.


*-Yet again Amazon is late in posting my review. Amazon just posted it at America in an Era of Crisis (amazon.com) Sep 28

Thursday, September 21, 2023

My Conversation with Ori Nir on the Situation in Israel: Part 2

 On September 10th I had a wide ranging conversation with Ori Nir, Vice President for Public Affairs of Americans for Peace Now on the proposed judicial reforms in Israel, relationship with the Palestinians and the proposed Israel-U.S.-Saudi Arabia- Palestine mega deal. The YouTube link is below. This is a follow up of on our March 19th conversation. (Shulmaven: My Conversation with Ori Nir on the Situation in Israel)


An Update on What’s Happening in Israel: The View from Americans for Peace Now - YouTube



Monday, September 18, 2023

A Quick Note on General Motors and the UAW Strike

 I am not expert enough to weigh in completely on the current UAW strike against the Big 3. However I would note that the automobile companies are arguing that they need the high profits they are now earning to fund their development of electric vehicles. On the surface this makes sense, but given that General Motors' current $5 billion share buyback program does not make sense. That money should be going into electric vehicle development.

In another era, way back in 1954, General Motors sold $350 million dollars in new stock to fund the development and the production of new vehicles. Thus, if GM were really serious about electric vehicles it would be selling stock, not buying back their stock from existing shareholders.

Thursday, September 14, 2023

My Review* of Daniel Kraus' "Whalefall"

Jay and the Whale

 

Chapter Two of the Book of Jonah opens with “The Lord provided a huge fish to swallow Jonah; and Jonah remained in the fish’s belly three days and three nights.” Here we have 17-year-old diver Jay Gardiner being swallowed by a 60-foot sperm whale and he has far less than three days to get out. Author Daniel Kraus weaves a terrifying story of Jay’s attempts to free himself from the belly of the whale. Along the way we learn much about the anatomy of a sperm whale and learn about all of the flotsam that is nestled there, including a Brillo box that will become important later in the story.

 

The book is far more than a Jonah story because through the use of flashbacks we learn much about Jay’s troubled relationship with his father Mitt, also a diver, and his family. The reason for Jay’s dive that morning into Monterey Bay, an area I know well, is to find the bones of his dead father who committed suicide after a bout with cancer. And while in the whale, Jay reconciles with his late father.

 

I started reading this book on a long flight in a dark cabin over the Atlantic. It reached a point where the story was so terrifying that, in the darkness, I had to put it down. I didn’t finish until I returned home. All told, Knaus tells an adventure story with a strong human touch. Because there are 550 reviews already posted on Amazon, I have kept my review to a minimum. 

*- Amazon has yet again failed to post my review in a timely manner. Posted by amazon a week late on 9/16. See: Jay and the Whale (amazon.com)

Monday, September 11, 2023

J.M. Smucker's Dumb Deal to Buy Hostess Brands

I am a 50-year shareholder of J.M. Smucker (SJM) and I have seen them make some great deals (Folgers Coffee $3.3 billion in 2008) and some horrible deals (Big Heart Pet Brands $5.3 billion in 2015), but their planned $5.6 billion acquisition of Twinkie maker Hostess Brands (TWNK) takes the cake. This deal is dumb on strategic and valuation grounds and family scion Paul H. Smucker is probably turning over in his grave.

It staggers the mind too think that when the sweetened snack industry is being riled by the prospect of a new class of weight loss drugs that will drive a dagger into the industry's business model, SJM decides to pay a huge premium (54% price unaffected) for TWNK, perhaps the most vulnerable company in that sector.

Compounding the strategic mistake SJM is paying a huge 17X EBITDA on 2023 numbers and an estimate 13X on SJM's estimate (aggressive in my opinion) of 2024 results allowing for synergies. To me it makes no sense for SJM which was trading at 11X EBITDA to buy a far worse business at 17X EBITDA. Further SJM compounds the problem by levering up to the gills with planned financing approximating $5 billion. That borrowing with raise its Debt/EBITDA ratio from a modest 2.2X to a junk level 4.5X. Simply put, expect SJM's P/E ratio to contract. It is no accident that SJM is trading down 7% intraday.

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

My Amazon Review of Christopher Rufo's "America's Cultural Revolution: How the Radical Left Conquered Everything"

Racial Marxism


Christopher Rufo, a leading agent provocateur of the Right, has written a deeply researched intellectual history of how the political culture of the 1960’s Left became dominant in 21st century America. Rufo traces today’s diversity, equity, inclusion (DEI) and antiracism training back to the ideas of Herbert Marcuse, Angela Davis, Paulo Freire, and Derrick Bell. Thus, there is a straight line from the cultural revolution of 1968 to the “wokism” of 2015 and beyond.

 

To me Rufo’s ideas ring true because as a young leftist of that era I first heard the terms “the long march through the institutions” and “white skin privilege” in the early 1970’s. According to Rufo the Left’s long march first succeeded in establishing university ethnic studies programs, then on to the education schools and soon enough the entire liberal arts were largely controlled by far-left ideologues. After the universities, came the newsrooms, the media and corporate HR departments.

 

Frankfurt school philosopher Herbert Marcuse is the founding father of racial Marxism. Marcuse gave up on the working class as the motive force for revolution and substituted militant minorities.  If you want to know why the Democratic Party lost the working class, you can do no worse than reading Marcuse. Instead having the white revolutionaries of the 1960’s we now have the limousine liberals and middle-class feminists linking us with urban minorities to form the guts of the Democratic coalition.

 

Rufo then goes on to Marcuse student Angela Davis who became the paragon of Black liberation. Her support of the Black Panthers was legendary and according to Rufo there is a straight line from the Panthers to Black Lives Matter. Her “kill the pigs” would become “defund the police” fifty years later.

 

Indeed, in the early 1970’s the white left was so enthralled with the Panthers that is took political direction from them. Further Davis was a stone-cold communist who followed the Soviet party line to the bitter end. Part of Davis’s politics was to destroy such icons of American history as Washington, Jefferson, and Lincoln to make white’s feel ashamed of their country.

 

I never heard of Paulo Friere before reading this book. His contribution was to emphasize education as a way to revolution. His “Pedagogy of the Oppressed” is one of most widely cited books in academia. We see his ideas in school curricula designed to make white children uncomfortable about their heritage. This is not about teaching real history, but rather bending it to a leftist ideology.

 

His last ideologist of the Left is Harvard Law professor Derrick Bell who started to develop critical race theory in the early 1970’s. Bell is a racial pessimist because white people are inherently oppressors because of their “privilege.” Although not stated, it seems that under critical race theory the entire white population has to go through Maoist-style re-education camps. Don’t laugh, there are all kinds of institutional programs that are doing modified versions of this.

 

Rufo ends his book on an upbeat note. He is, after all, a counter revolutionary. As a trustee at Florida’s New College, he is working do away with a host of sham departments that cover for leftist organizing and doing away with its DEI programs. Eliminating DEI is essential to Rufo. His program can be summarized as “equality over equity, dignity over inclusion, and order over chaos.” As a personal note I stopped giving money to UCLA because, like many universities, the school required a personal statement in support of DEI in order to be hired or promoted. Simply put, a 21st century loyalty oath.

 

Although polemical, Rufo has written a serious book that should be read by policy makers and the public alike. In order to make the needed changes we have to know how we got here.

 For the full Amazon URL see: Racial Marxism (amazon.com)