My Review* of Neil Howe's "The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History......"

 America in an Era of Crisis

I received this book as a gift. 

America is in crisis. Nothing seems to be working with dysfunction everywhere from Congress to the post office, to the airlines, to the housing market, to medical care, to the lack of civility and to extreme weather events. All of this is a symptom of what author Neil Howe calls the onset of the fourth turning. Howe builds on his earlier book written with William Strauss entitled “The Fourth Turning” which appeared in 1997. In that book the authors coined the term “millennial generation.”

 

According to Howe Anglo-American history going back to the War of the Roses follows a predicable 80–100-year Saeculum which is broken up into 20–30-year blocks. For example, the 80-year blocks of 1780-1860-1940-2020 would constitute three turnings. Each crisis era was forewarned by a war. The Revolutionary War crisis was preceded by the French and Indian War, the Civil War crisis by the Mexican War, the Great Depression/World War II crisis by World War I and the current crisis by 9/11 and its aftermath.

 

Thus, according to Howe, we will soon be entering the fourth turning which he estimates to start around 2033. Unfortunately, the fourth turning is usually accompanied by a major war or a civil war. As a result, the recent ugliness is only a precursor of worse things to come. However, once the crisis has passed a new dawn awaits us, as in the end of World War II.

 

Within each 80-year block there are four eras defined by the change in generations. The recent history looks like this in Howe’s terms:

Boom 1943-1960, High.

Gen X 1961-1981, Awakening.

Millennial 1982-06, Unraveling.

Homeland 2007-2033? Crisis

 

Each generation gives rise to a protype character. By Howe’s reckoning there are heroes, artists, nomads, and prophets. It is the heroes that resolve the crisis era that become the leaders of the next high cycle. Think Eisenhower, for example.

 

In Howe’s view the next Saeculum will be characterized by the rise of community over the Individual. The unmet tasks of the prior era will be handled by a far more egalitarian society. Taxes will be higher on the wealthy, but entitlement spending will be under control and government finally figures out to deliver services more efficiently with high investment in climate mitigation and drastic reforms in zoning that would once again make housing affordable. In other words, a very efficient social democracy.

 

I noticed a few errors in the book. The Four Freedoms were a product of World War II not World War I and the Treaty of Detroit was made in 1950, not 1946. Nevertheless, Howe gives us a new interpretation of our history and his insights are extraordinary.

*-Yet again Amazon is late in posting my review. Amazon just posted it at America in an Era of Crisis (amazon.com) Sep 28