My Review of Victor Shvets' "The Twilight Before the Storm"

 The Times They Are A-Changin* 

Viktor Shvets, an investment strategist at Macquarie Bank, doesn’t like the baby boomers, especially the neoliberal order that generation brought into being. Drawing on the work of Neil Howe and others ( https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2023/09/my-review-of-neil-howes-fourth-turning.html ) wherein generational changeovers drive history he argues that the neoliberal order of 1980-2010 is over and we poised enter a turbulent era with the Gen-Z and millennial generations taking power. He analogizes the coming epoch to that of the 1930’s where communism, fascism and social democracy fought it out for global supremacy which set the world on fire in the 1940’s.

To Shvets the change is being brought about by the merger of financialization with the technological revolution which is creating an unsustainable income distribution that has given rise to populism on both the Right and the Left. He calls this the Fujiwhara effect where two tropical storms merge to create a monster storm. I would note that his view of fairness is horizontal equity as opposed to vertical equity where people are free to enjoy the fruits of their labor and talents.

I am a big fan of Neil Howe and I have written a thus far five part series on “Reliving the 1930’s” (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2023/11/reliving-1930s-part-5.html ) As result a read Shvets’ book with some sympathy, but in my opinion he gets more than a few things wrong. I lived the 1960’s through the rise of neoliberalism as a hippy protestor to working on Wall Street. I know I am far from being the only one. However, his boomers are the ones who went to college, not the ones who fought in Vietnam, went to work in a factory, and suffered through the divorce epidemic of the 1970’s. 

 

While Shvets is critical of the individualism of the boomers in the economic realm, he fully supports their individualism with respect to sex, drugs, and racial tolerance. Basically, the rebels of the 1960’s won a complete victory in the culture war and lost the economic war. To me it was no accident that economic freedom went hand in hand with personal freedom, although you can certainly argue there are excesses in both areas.

 

Connecting our era to that of the 1930’s, Shvets’ believes that ideally, we would have a rerun of 1930’s America along a path toward Roosevelt-style social democracy that would include a universal basic income. However, that path might not be viable and it is not the only path. The social democratic path faces the fundamental reality that in the “Blue” cities of America that are far down the road toward social democracy we see abject governmental failure in the form of high taxes coupled with poor services, failed public education, fiscal bankruptcy, governmental fraud and the widest gaps between rich and poor. That future is hardly enticing.

 

Instead, the fourth turning could lead to a major cultural revolution towards a new religiosity in society. Where the Gen-Zers and the millennials have substituted environmentalism, socialism, feminism, and new ageism for religion, in place of the market fundamentalism of the Boomers, they may ultimately turn to the real thing. It won’t be the first time America has had a religious awakening, and it won’t be the first time that history surprises.

 

*-With apologies to Bob Dylan