My Review of Odd Arne Westad's "The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict......"

 War Clouds on the Horizon

In a previous blog I noted that we are living in a prewar era analogous to the runup to the start of World War II. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2023/11/reliving-1930s-part-5.html ) Here Yale historian and global affairs professor Odd Arne Westad argues that a more appropriate analogy would be that of the prewar period approaching World War I. In many respects his argument parallels that of Graham Allison’s Thucydides Trap where the rise of China is inducing fear in the United States that has the potential to make war inevitable. ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2017/08/my-amazon-review-of-graham-allisons.html ) Instead of the Balkans being the hotspot in the pre-1914 world, today we China-Taiwan, Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, and Pakistan-India. Anyone of which that could put the great powers in play.

 

In the pre-World War I era it was the rise of Germany that was threatening Britain, but Westad goes further by stating the bipolar world of the Cold War is over, and, in fact, we are now living in a multi-polar world with many strong regional actors such as India, Türkiye, Brazil and Iran.  He further analogizes that Russia is the Austria-Hungary of our day by being China’s junior partner. Similar to our time, the pre-World War I era was characterized by rising nationalism and a growing dissatisfaction with globalism. Fear and resentment were the motivating forces of the era. Sound familiar? 

 

My problem with Westad’s book is that he doesn’t offer real solutions, but who can, to the U.S.-China antagonism and for the regional hotspots. Because the book was written prior to the current Iran War, which has the potential for a great power conflict, Westad doesn’t have much to say.  There is also little discussion on the current revolution in military affairs involving drones and artificial intelligence which is greatly influencing the diplomatic chessboard. That said, if pre-World War I is the appropriate analog, we are in for trouble.

 

The Purim War - Part 4, The Ceasefire Fog*

The rally in the stock and bond markets and the collapse in oil prices is signaling that the Purim War is all but over. That, indeed, may be true, but we are a long way from a final settlement and there is a nontrivial chance that fighting will resume.  In fact, both sides have already reported ceasefire violations. We will know more this weekend when the U.S. and Iranian negotiators meet in Pakistan.

In the meantime, ships aren’t traversing the Hormuz Strait, and it looks like Iran wants to set up a tollway. Should that happen, it would represent a severe challenge to “freedom of navigation” on an international waterway, a concept that the U.S. went to war three times in its history. (War on the Barbary Pirates, The War of 1812, and World War I) If Iran prevails on this issue, it could rightly claim, that despite its enormous tactical defeat, it won a significant strategic victory enabling it to hold the global oil market hostage.

Although President Trump has stated that Iran will give up its enriched uranium and end its nuclear program, this hasn’t been confirmed by word and deed by the Iranians. Remember that ending the Iran nuclear program was the primary goal of the war to begin with. We will learn much on this point in a few days.

 

As we previously noted Israel would take the opportunity to take care of its unfinished business in Lebanon. ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-purim-war.html ) As we speak Israel is pounding Hezbollah in Lebanon and both the Iranians and the Pakistanis are saying Israel’s war in Lebanon are part of the overall cease fire. Both the U.S. and Israel believe that it is separate issue.

 

Thus, the way I see it, the war is far from over with the ultimate winner being determined by the Hormuz and nuclear issues.

 

*- See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2026/03/purim-war-part-3-end-game.html

Joe Biden, Hang Down your Head in Shame

 I just listened to President Joe Biden's speech on Afghanistan. He was eloquent on the need to withdraw our troops from Afghanistan, but he failed to take any real responsibility for the disastrous withdrawal of our personnel and close allies in the country. The ongoing humanitarian failure is there for the world to see and it will only get worse from here once the Taliban is in full control. There was no contingency planning for the near instantaneous collapse of the Afghan government. Why? It was likely a combination of a massive intelligence failure and groupthink in the highest levels of government.

Heads should roll. He should have opened his speech by announcing the resignation of his national security advisor, Jake Sullivan. After our failure in Mogadishu with "Blackhawk Down" in 1993, Secretary of Defense Les Aspin resigned. 

This was not rocket science in predicting what is now transpiring. In May I tweeted that "Biden would rue the day he ordered the pullout." At the beginning of August, I tweeted it was "game over". While America sleeped  the Taliban were making deals with the tribal warlords to enable them to seize power region by region. Once the Afghans realized which way the wind was blowing the cut the best deals they could.

The long term tragedy of the debacle in Kabul is that America has lost trust throughout the world. By betraying our in-country Afghan allies we have sent messages from Taipei to Tel Aviv that America cannot  be trusted and in host of places individuals and countries will recalculate their position in the world. Further with the Taliban victory Pakistan has improved its strategic position vis a vis India which will likely lead to increased tensions on the subcontinent. All in all, not a pretty picture.

My Amazon Review of Ed Douglas' "Himalaya: A Human History"

 

A Mountain too High

 

My book club chose Ed Douglas’ book for our April selection. I and most members of the club were very disappointed, and we elected to call an audible to switch books. The book is dry and way too academic in its writing style. To be sure it could have been interesting given that the Himalayas stand at the crossroads of three major religions: Islam, Hinduism, and Buddhism. They also stand amidst the geopolitical rivalry involving China, India, and Pakistan.

 

The problem here is that Douglas gets way to wrapped up in socio-political history going back a thousand years where he highlights the rivalry of the various tribes in the region. With all of the names he mentioned the reader would need a scorecard which he does not provide. As a result, unless the reader is really interested in a very deep history of the region, I would pass.

The full Amazon URL appears at: A Mountain too High (amazon.com)

What's Missing from the Democratic Debates? Foreign Policy

If recent history is a guide, when the Democratic presidential candidates meet this Thursday for their their debate there will be little of no discussion on foreign policy. It seems that both the candidates and the Democratic electorate are not interested in foreign policy. I have news for them, soon foreign policy will be interested in them.

Just look at the world Trump is leaving for them. NATO is in disarray, the trade war with China is morphing into something much bigger, Hong Kong could soon turn into a bloodbath,  Israel and Hezbollah are about to go to war in Lebanon, Iran has resumed its nuclear program and North Korea continues to expand both its rocket and nuclear programs. And if this isn't enough nuclear armed India and Pakistan are at each other's throats over the Kashmir.

So if I were George Stephanopoulos, ABC's lead moderator, I would be prepping foreign policy questions. My guess is that before the first votes are cast in Iowa foreign policy will move to the top of mind of more than a few voters.

My Amazon Review of George Packer's "Our Man:Richard Holbrooke and The End of the American Century"

A Man in Full

George Packer knows how to write. His 600 page (in print edition) biography of diplomat Richard Holbrooke kept my full attention throughout my reading, no mean feat. Packer fully benefited from Holbrooke’s papers given to him by Katie Marton, Holbrooke’s third wife and more than 200 interviews that put you into the room of a host of very important conversations that affected American foreign policy in every Democratic administration from Kennedy to Obama. Needless to say watching the sausage being made is very messy where personality too often dominates over policy.

Holbrooke was blessed by having met Dean Rusk as a college student through a friendship with his son and had the Harrimans, both Averell and Pamela Harriman as a patron early in his career and Hillary Clinton later on. His goal was to become secretary of state; he never achieved it, but you can find his foot prints on American policy from Vietnam to Afghanistan.

We see Holbrooke in the bush taking fire in 1960’s Vietnam as a young Foreign Service officer, where he realizes early on that the war was unwinnable and again see him taking fire in the Balkans in the 1990s and Afghanistan in 2010. He certainly had raw physical courage. He also knew how to dominate a room. Through the force of his personality he basically brokers the end of the Bosnian civil war with what became known as the Dayton Accords.

Holbrooke’s problem was that many of the coalitions he built were against him. Simply put, all too many people couldn’t stand him. Too be sure they respected his intellect and insights, but he had a way of annoying his best of friends. President Obama made him our Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009, yet after appointing him he refused to meet with him or even be in the same room with him. Even Hillary Clinton, his principal sponsor, grew tired of him. In fact he suffers a fatal heart attack in Clinton’s office while he was arguing for a negotiated solution to with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Holbrooke’s life was focused on foreign policy to the exclusion of practically everything else. Packer makes it clear that it was no easy task to be one of his spouses, where he had numerous affairs including with his best friend’s wife. That best friend was Tony Lake, who became national security adviser to Bill Clinton and a lifelong bureaucratic adversary.

His personal faults aside Holbrooke cared about our country and wanted our foreign policy to reflect the best of our ideals. He became a full-throated supporter of humanitarian intervention in Bosnia and he understood coercive diplomacy had a role in formulating foreign policy. Holbrooke was tough on our enemies and too often he was tough on his friends. He was truly a man in full and Packer’s writing brings that out.

The full amazon URL appears at: https://www.amazon.com/review/RQG5BWHYE8NK3/ref=pe_1098610_137716200_cm_rv_eml_rv0_rv