The rally in the stock and bond markets and the collapse in oil prices is signaling that the Purim War is all but over. That, indeed, may be true, but we are a long way from a final settlement and there is a nontrivial chance that fighting will resume. In fact, both sides have already reported ceasefire violations. We will know more this weekend when the U.S. and Iranian negotiators meet in Pakistan.
In the meantime,
ships aren’t traversing the Hormuz Strait, and it looks like Iran wants to set
up a tollway. Should that happen, it would represent a severe challenge to “freedom
of navigation” on an international waterway, a concept that the U.S. went to
war three times in its history. (War on the Barbary Pirates, The War of 1812,
and World War I) If Iran prevails on this issue, it could rightly claim, that
despite its enormous tactical defeat, it won a significant strategic victory
enabling it to hold the global oil market hostage.
Although President
Trump has stated that Iran will give up its enriched uranium and end its
nuclear program, this hasn’t been confirmed by word and deed by the Iranians. Remember
that ending the Iran nuclear program was the primary goal of the war to begin
with. We will learn much on this point in a few days.
As we previously
noted Israel would take the opportunity to take care of its unfinished business
in Lebanon. ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-purim-war.html
) As we speak Israel is pounding Hezbollah in Lebanon and both the Iranians and
the Pakistanis are saying Israel’s war in Lebanon are part of the overall cease
fire. Both the U.S. and Israel believe that it is separate issue.
Thus, the way I see
it, the war is far from over with the ultimate winner being determined by the Hormuz
and nuclear issues.
*- See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2026/03/purim-war-part-3-end-game.html
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