The Purim War- Part 5, Deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz*

With the Iranians continuing to prevent shipping from leaving the Persian Gulf and the American Navy blockading the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, it looks like fighting will resume after the ceasefire ends on Wednesday. To be sure the U.S. delegation is now enroute to Islamabad to negotiate; it remains to be seen if the Iranians will show up. Further it is not clear whether or not the Iranian team can bind the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) to accept any terms they agree to. From the outside it looks like there is a division between the political and military factions of the government.

 

As we noted last week it is untenable for the U.S to accept Iranian control of the Persian Gulf and for Iran to maintain its uranium enrichment program. ( See: Shulmaven: "Millions for defense, but not one cent for tribute" ) Thus unless there is a change of heart on the part of the IRGC, a resumption in the fighting seems inevitable. A harbinger of that occurred today with the U.S. seizing an Iranian flagged ship in the Indian Ocean. Indeed, should the fighting resume, it will be taken to a more destructive level than we have seen thus far.

 

Thus, the party goers in Friday’s financial markets are likely to suffer a hangover when trading resumes on Monday.

 

*-See: Shulmaven: The Purim War - Part 4, The Ceasefire Fog*