My Review of Jake Tapper's and Alex Thompson's "Original Sin"

The Tragedy of Joe Biden

Joe Biden was elected president in 2020 on his being both a moderate and a transition candidate who would serve one term. He failed on both accounts by swerving to the Left under the aegis of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and then by declaring himself a candidate for re-election in April 2023. Little did the voters know that as early a 2015 Biden was on the road to cognitive decline that rapidly accelerated in 2022. Much has already been written about reporters Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson, well-sourced, albeit largely anonymously sourced book, so I will limit my comments here.

 

My sense is that had there not been the COVID pandemic in 2020, Biden would have lost. Why? He would not have been able to handle the stress of a national campaign. Because of COVID he ran from his basement and the public hardly saw him. Once elected he was placed in a cocoon by what Tapper and Thompson characterize as the politburo which consisted of four of his top aides. They included Mike Donilon, Steve Ricchetti, Anita Dunn, and Bruce Reed, all of whom had family members working in the administration. Those four along with wife Jill controlled access to Biden and controlled the flow of information to him. For example, Biden never saw polls in Spring 2024 showing how badly he was doing.

 

On many occasions Biden failed to remember the names of long-time acquaintances and because his cabinet and congressional leaders hardly saw him, they were shocked when he appeared distant and fragile at formal events. Indeed, Biden was forced to use a teleprompter at intimate fund-raising events. This all came home to roost when the whole country witnessed his disastrous performance at the June 27^th debate with Donald Trump.

 

In fact, we were forewarned with the Hur report on Biden’s unauthorized possession of classified documents. Robert Hur declined to prosecute because he though a jury would find Biden “a sympathetic well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory.” For that statement Hur was flamed by the politburo, while all of them knew it was true. To be sure, Biden and his inner circle were motivated by the fear that he and he alone could defeat Trump. At the end of the day, they ended up with the worst possible world; Trump being elected and Biden in disgrace.

 

Tapper and Thompson are especially good at describing an almost daily tick-tock of the post-debate events leading up to Biden’s withdrawal from the race. Along the way the politburo was kicking and screaming to keep Biden in the race, but ultimately, they were forced to accept the reality of a debacle in November.

 

Although I think Tapper and Thompson have written an important and very readable book, there are three failures that come to mind. First, far more blame should be put on the compliant press in covering up Biden’s cognitive decline. Second, Jill Biden’s role in this affair in this reading is limited. She knew, but my guess is that she loved the trappings of power. She loved being the first lady and being on the cover of Vogue magazine four times. Third, at a time when foreign policy crises were happening almost daily, there is no discussion as to what Biden’s foreign policy team thought of him. Biden might not have seen his cabinet that often, but he was in constant contact with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Different decisions might have been made had we a more alert president. 

My Review of Bob Woodward's "War"

Biden’s Wars

Washington Post writer Bob Woodward has chronicled every president since Bill Clinton. In this book he focuses on Biden’s three wars, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Gaza. Unfortunately, he fails to discuss the most electorally significant war that was a result of Biden’s open border policy. Although not characterized as a war, the invasion/arrival of 10 million illegal/undocumented immigrants at our southern border seemed like a war to those Americans living in the Southwest and later to those living in the cities where they were bussed to. 

Woodward glances over the debacle in Afghanistan where Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from that country permanently reduced his poll standing. I have yet to see who was fired for allowing this to happen.

Biden initially does much better with Ukraine. Here we witness the actions of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin seamlessly performing as a team. Of course, it is my guess that those three were Woodward’s sources for what happened. Benefitting from excellent intelligence the team warns Putin and notifies Ukrainian President Zelensky that Russia was about to invade. The public release of the intelligence was unprecedented, and it helped prepare Ukraine and the American people for what was to lie ahead.

Contrary to expectations in the West, Ukraine survived the initial Russian assault and then began a counter offensive aided by U.S. weaponry. It is here where the Biden team fails. Instead of going all-in with all kinds of offensive weapons, the team dilly-dallies preventing Ukraine from pressing its advantage. As a result, the stalemate we have now ensues. The Biden rationale for going slowly was the fear that Russia might introduce nuclear weapons into the conflict. Although plausible, we don’t have any Russian sources to back this conjecture up.

After the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, Biden goes all-in in support of Israel, and he visits the country a few weeks after. However, after the casualties start rising in Gaza the administration starts going soft. This is highlighted in the July 1924 meeting between Vice President Kamala Harris, now a presidential candidate, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While being supportive and diplomatic with Netanyahu in private, she stuns the Israelis with a very strong public statement critical about how Israel is fighting the war and the casualties in Gaza it is causing. That along with a slowdown in certain arms deliveries to Israel, highlighted the growing breach between the Biden White House and Netanyahu.

In all three cases it seems to me that Biden’s strategy was to “end wars” not to win them. (See:  https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2024/05/joe-no-win-biden.html) This strategy ended in disaster in Afghanistan, and it is certainly not helping in Ukraine and Gaza.

There were two widely reported scoops coming out of Woodward’s book. The first being that Trump supplied Putin with Covid testing kits when they were scarce in the U.S. and second Army Chief of Staff Milley calling Trump a fascist. There was third one, not so widely reported where Biden demonstrated significant mental decline at a Silicon Valley fundraiser in June 2023, a year before his disastrous debate performance. The country would have been saved a lot of anguish if this were reported earlier.

Woodward’s book is a helpful guide to understanding the Biden years, but it is far from definitive. We learn more as his staffers write their own memoirs in the years to come.

A Realigning Anti-Incumbent Election

I normally write my election outlook on the weekend before the election. (See my earlier commentary: Shulmaven: The State of the Presidential Race) However, this year, because of my travel schedule I am hesitantly putting it out now. When historians 20 years from now look back at the 2024 election they would note that a major political realignment between the two parties took place. (See: Shulmaven: Political Realignment is Here) Simply put, the Republican Party, by eating into the Democrats hold on Black and Latino voters, has put together a broad multi-racial working class party with a strong populist bent. This is a far cry from the business and country-oriented party of two decades ago. Lurking behind all of this is an ever-widening gender gap.

On the other hand, the Democrats have picked up voters from hitherto high-income business oriented suburban Republican voters, especially women. The Democrats are now firmly the party of the elites buttressed by Black and single women voters. The union-oriented lunch pail Democrat is a relic of the past. The Democrats are the party of women, and the Republicans are the party of men.

Part and parcel with the realignment is that the county is moving towards Trump on many issues, specifically on trade, immigration, and crime. Witness Democratic Senator Bob Casey praising Trump on trade. In contrast the country is moving towards Harris on the potent issue of abortion. It remains to be seen which dominates. What is really surprising is that the race is so close given that nearly all of the propaganda arms of the state are firmly in the Harris camp.

Further the global electorate including ours is in anti-incumbent rage. (See: Shulmaven: Incumbents Beware) This is crucial for both Trump and Harris. Whomever the electorate perceives to be the incumbent will lose. That is why Biden had to drop out. To be sure Harris is the incumbent vice president, but we have been living in the age of Trump for nine years. My guess is that the electorate will not want to witness another four years. The problem for Harris is that she is too tied to Biden, and she has yet to articulate a clear vision of the future. Her closing argument is that Trump’s narcissistic criminality has to be stopped.

The electoral college arithmetic for both candidates is challenging. For example, if Harris holds the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and picks up the one electoral vote coming out of Omaha, Nebraska she will hit the 270 electoral vote magic number. However, if she loses one of those states, she going to have to make it up in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Given today’s polls, which is doable, but difficult. At the end of the day the key to a Harris victory is her ground game. She has paid staff and volunteers everywhere, while Trump’s campaign is sorely lacking in this regard. At least to me, if Harris loses Pennsylvania, her biggest mistake would be not picking Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate (See: Shulmaven: Kamala Harris Fails Her First Test with VP Pick)  and her failure to counter Trump’s attack on her position supporting federally paid for gender reassignment surgeries.

I also have a hunch that the election might not be as close as the polls suggest. It is equally likely that either candidate will receive more than 300 electoral votes. Stranger things have happened in the last two weeks of the election and if there is going to be a wave, I would give the edge to Harris. Recall that the polls were wrong in 2016, 2020 and 2022.

In keeping with my anti-incumbent thesis, I think the Democrats will retake the very dysfunctional House and end up with a majority of around 10-12 seats. On the other hand, the Democrats will lose the Senate with the Republicans ending up with 52 seats. Although most Senate Democrats are leading in the polls there are too many targets of opportunity for the Republicans.

Most disappointing about the election is that two particularly critical issues, the elephants in the room, are not being discussed. The first is the out-of-control deficit spending of both parties that putting the U.S. on the path of have highest debt/GDP ratio in history and the underspending on defense that will put our country at grave risk in the years ahead.

 

The State of the Presidential Race

 Over the past two months the Democrats have risen from their severely depressed state of being in mourning over Joe Biden to an exalted manic state hailing Vice President Kamala Harris as their new savior. Last week’s very successful convention cemented Harris’ leadership in the party, and she is now a small favorite to win the election in November.  However, I would caution that the current manic phase can quickly turn once again to a depressive state.

 

The most important thing that happened at the convention was what did not happen. As many feared, including myself, the convention did not turn out to be a rerun of 1968. It went off flawlessly and Harris came out of the convention as a forward-looking optimist as opposed to Donald Trump’s backward-looking pessimism. Indeed, somehow the sitting vice president became the candidate of change and Donald Trump became the de facto incumbent. As I wrote in July, this will be the year of the anti-incumbent and if Harris can maintain her image as challenger she will win. ( See: Shulmaven: Incumbents Beware )

 

Further buttressing her position is that the propaganda organs  of the state (ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, Washington Post, New York Times, Facebook, and TikTok)  gushed over her acceptance speech. (See: Shulmaven: America's Party Line )  So craven have the mass media been is that their unqualified support for Harris has yet to pass the test of a single interview. In fact, Time magazine did a hagiographic cover story on her without an interview, truly unprecedented.

 

Meantime Harris’ economic proposals have drawn criticism from even normally left-of-center quarters. Her proposals for price caps on groceries, rent control and a $25,000 tax credit for new home buyers make little sense. Of course, Trump’s proposals calling for mass deportations, tariffs on all imports and executive branch control over the Federal Reserve are zanier than what Harris has proposed.

 

The critical tests for Harris will come when she actually has to do real interviews and the September 10^th debate with Trump where she is the presumptive favorite. If Harris is to maintain the mantle of change, she will have to successfully answer the following question: On, what policies do you differ with President Biden? My guess is that she will be hard pressed to answer that question which will leave a big opening for Trump.

America's Party Line

 In a recent article in The Free Press Niall Ferguson wrote that “We’re All Soviets Now.” (See: https://www.thefp.com/p/were-all-soviets-now)  Among the notions he discussed were our gerontocracy elite, declining health care for the average citizen abetted by alcohol and opiods, and the rise of the DEI apparatchiks. However, he left out another crucial factor. In America we have a party line that appears little different from the days of Pravda and Izvestia.

 

All you have to do is to look at the shifting party line on the Democratic nominee for president. Six months ago, President Biden was at the top of his game and fully capable of serving another four years. Then of a sudden in June, he was a doddering old fool who had to go. Once Biden withdrew there was to be a contested mini-primary, but in a day or two Kamala Harris became the anointed one. It would be enough to get a dedicated Kremlinologist’s head spinning.

 

With the exception of Fox News and a few heterodox media outlets, the media now speaks as one by being all-in for Harris and through it all Donald Trump, the new Trotsky, has to remain in exile from power. Although being anti-Trump remains the media’s lodestar, I would not be surprised that with respect to Kamala Harris, the fickle party line will yet again shift a few more times.

Political Realignment is Here

In 2016 and 2018 I authored two blogs on the coming realignment of American Politics ( Shulmaven: The Coming Political Realignment and  Shulmaven: The Coming Political Realignment: Part II ) I believe the realignment I spoke of then and in subsequent related blogs is now here. The recent Republican convention once and for all buried the Right Hamiltonian* roots of the party and firmly made it over into a rightwing populist party combining the 19^th century Jacksonians and Know Nothings into one 21^st century coalition. Consistent with that, the party renominated Doanld Trump for president and JD Vance for vice-president. The party is now firmly isolationist, anti-free trade, anti-immigrant, pro-entitlements, and in many respects anti-Wall Street and above all “anti-woke.”

 

Prior to his withdrawal from the race, Joe Biden was veering sharply to the left with calls for national rent control, more student debt relief, medical bill relief and restructuring the Supreme Court. No longer a Left Hamiltonian, Biden was moving in the direction of a new social democratic party with policies along the lines of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. My guess is that Vice-President Kamala Harris who as of today seems the likely Democratic nominee, will pull the party in same direction Biden was headed with an even greater emphasis on identity politics.  Afterall, she grew up in the hot house of far-left San Francisco Bay Democratic politics.

 

Now, where does that leave the Right Hamiltonians of the Republican Party and the Left Hamiltonians of the Democratic Party. For the time being they are without a home. Furthermore, the mood of the electorate seems to be very anti-establishment which will make it very difficult for the Hamiltonians of both parties to gain traction. However, it is likely that either political party will unfortunately drive our country into a ditch, making it likely that in 2028 a merged Hamiltonian Party will come to the fore. That will either be within the Democratic Party sans its social democrats or as a centrist third party.

 

*- I broadly define Right Hamiltonians as those who would use the power of government to support business and Left Hamiltonians who would use government to support labor. Both wings are internationalists.

Incumbents Beware

The tide of elections around the world are sending an ominous signal for incumbents everywhere. In India Prime Minister Nerendra Modi failed to achieve the widely expected super majority in parliament, the Conservatives in the UK got wiped out with their vote total dropping from 44% to 24% in the prior election, and while Labour won a huge majority in Parliament sending Keir Starmer to 10 Downing Street, it did so with only 34% of the vote. The spoiler was Nigel Farage's fringe Reform Party which took 14% of the vote. In France the votes are still being counted with the French Left winning a surprising plurality of the votes, while Marine Le Pen's rightwing party disappointed, but the real loser was French President Emanuel Macron

What all this means for the United States is that President Joe Biden. with all of his age related troubles. is in a world of hurt. Even if Vice President Kamala Harris succeeds Biden as the nominee, she will be viewed as an incumbent and hence a loser. The only choice the Democrats have would be to nominate a new candidate in an open convention. That candidate would certainly not be an incumbent. Indeed, in the minds of the voters Trump would then be the incumbent and headed for a loss. I know it is high risk, but that is the only path for a Democratic victory. 

Before the past few weeks was my view was that we would see a reversal of fortune in American politics with the Republicans retaking the White House and the Senate and losing the House to the Democrats. However, if things don't turn around soon, we could be headed for a Republican sweep.

Debacle in Atlanta

 President Joe Biden looked like a doddering old man and Donald Trump lied through his teeth at their debate last night. Neither one was edifying and most important neither one talked about the future further confirming the public's suspicion of both candidates. The Democratic Party talking heads are in full blown melt down calling for Biden to withdraw from the race leaving the way open for a new nominee. This will not happen unless leading Democratic office holders follow the lead of the pundit class.

However even if Biden steps down,  there is a fly in the ointment. Because the Democratic Convention occurs on Aug 19-22 two weeks after the Ohio filing deadline of August 7th, the plan was for the convention to electronically nominate Biden prior to the deadline. Now if Biden steps down and the Democrats have an open convention to select a new nominee, that nominee will not be on the Ohio ballot, thereby conceding the state to Trump. Further, without a presidential race in Ohio, it is likely that the veteran Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown would go down to defeat. Thus the Dems would be between a rock and a hard place.

Joe "No Win" Biden

President Biden has done it again. He doesn’t believe in winning. Just as at the start of the Russia-Ukraine War when the Biden provided enough aid to prevent Ukraine’s defeat, but not enough for Ukraine to win, it now appears he is doing the same thing with respect to the Israel-Hamas War. Last night he announced on CNN that the U.S. will stop the shipments of offensive military aid to Israel should it invade the heart of the Hamas stronghold of Rafah. He also has suspended the shipment of 3500 bombs and thousands of artillery shells.

 

To be sure civilian casualties have been high in the Gaza War, but it is in the nature of the Hamas enemy who cares little about the death of its own people. To them every casualty makes Israel look bad in the eyes of the world. Thus, it is in their interests to increase the body count. When facing an enemy like this, what choice does Israel have?

 

If Biden thinks that will hasten the cease fire negotiations with Hamas, he is sorely mistaken. Hamas will continue to play its waiting game in the hopes that Israel will cave under U.S. pressure. Meantime more Israeli hostages will die in captivity, and it will likely make Hezbollah more aggressive in the north. Remember those bombs and artillery shells are needed to defend Israel in the north.

 

All Biden’s actions will do is to prolong the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The quicker Hamas is defeated in Gaza the quicker the war will end. Never forget that Hamas is the aggressor. ( See: Shulmaven: Hamas Aggression Must be Punished ) A partial arms embargo on Israel is perhaps one of the most counter-productive things Biden has done. Selling out an ally does not do Biden proud and his action will have consequences around the world, especially in Taiwan.

The Coming Debacle at the Democratic Convention

 On August 19^th, the Democrats will hold their national convention at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. The venue is the home to the NBA Chicago Bulls and the NHL Chicago Blackhawks. However, instead of basketball and ice hockey, we are likely to see a 21^st century version of the 1968 Democratic Convention where a violent confrontation between the Chicago police and New Left demonstrators doomed the election of Hubert Humphrey from the get-go.

 

Karl Marx wrote, “history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.” This time, I fear history will repeat as tragedy. Why? The growing anti-Israel protest movement will likely show up in force in Chicago. Within that group there are many violent elements, and it would not surprise me to see provocateurs among them who will seek to exploit the situation. Don’t be surprised to see more than a few “Death to America” shouts and signs.

 

Unlike 1968 Chicago Mayor Daly was in charge of a strong police force, today Chicago has a weak leftist mayor in Brandon Johnson and a demoralized police force. I fear that this combination will over-learn the lesson of 1968 where the police overreacted to the demonstrators by clubbing them on national television. My guess is that this time the police will underreact in such a manner that they will lose control of the situation enabling the demonstrators to enter the convention floor with a round of mayhem that will draw parallels to January 6^th.

 

Americans watching all of this play out on TV will come to the obvious conclusion that the children of America’s most privileged are out of control. Indeed, they watch them acting out every night from a host of elite college campuses. And it won’t take a political genius to link them to President Biden and the elites of the Democratic Party. I fear that Biden is trapped making the way open for Donald Trump.

President Biden's State of the Union: Strong on Form Weak on Substance

Very reminiscent of Harry Truman's "give'em hell" 1948 campaign, President Biden came out swinging against his nameless predecessor and the Republican House of Representatives in his state of union address. ( See: Shulmaven: New Yorker Follows Shulmaven on Biden Election Strategy. ) He was confident, strong, and relaxed and at least for the time being silenced the "bedwetters" in the Democratic Party concerned about his re-election prospects. Further I wouldn't be surprised to see a meaningful bounce in his poll numbers in the coming week.

In terms of substance there was much to be desired. He opened his speech citing Franklin Roosevelt's 1941 state of the union (see below):

" In January 1941, President Franklin Roosevelt came to this chamber to speak to the nation. He said, “I address you at a moment unprecedented in the history of the Union.” Hitler was on the march. War was raging in Europe. President Roosevelt’s purpose was to wake up the Congress and alert the American people that this was no ordinary moment. 

Freedom and democracy were under assault in the world. Tonight I come to the same chamber to address the nation. Now it is we who face an unprecedented moment in the history of the Union. And yes, my purpose tonight is to both wake up this Congress, and alert the American people that this is no ordinary moment either."

President Roosevelt's speech which has become to be known as his "Four Freedoms Speech" was delivered on January 6, 1941. Only a week before Roosevelt gave fireside chat where he declared the United States to be "an arsenal of democracy." The difference today is that President Biden is nowhere near declaring America as an arsenal of democracy. Indeed his proposed defense budget will show a meager 1% increase. Given the tone of his speech and the prewar environment we are now living in, he should have called for a massive increase in defense spending. (See: Shulmaven: Shulmaven Anticipates Hal Brands Foreign Affairs Article on Pre-WW II and Today) Thus his rhetoric is way ahead of his actions.

The other troubling parts of his speech is that he revived all of the old Democratic Party tropes about taxing the rich, going after big Pharma, and spending program upon spending program. He fails to understand that middle-of-the-road voters in 2020 thought they were voting for a Bill Clinton and instead got a Lyndon Johnson. This could come back to haunt Biden as his rhetoric could very well scare away the Nikki Haley voters he will need in November.

Biden Throws Gasoline on the Inflation Fire

With today's announcement cancelling up to $20,000 of student loan debt for couples making less than $250,000 ($125,000 for individuals), President Joe Biden gives lie to his stated concern about the Federal deficit. The ceiling is roughly four times the median houshold income in the United States. This program is likely to cost about $500 billion, well above the recently enacted $300 billion tax increase on corporations. Somehow in the eyes of the Biden Adminstration student loan debt is more sacrosanct than other debts contracted by middle-class Americans.Put simply, Biden's actions is a payoff to a noisy Left who doesn't care about the uncredentialed workers who do the day-to-day work of keeping our country running.

As a result the extinguisment of student debt, will likely let loose a torrent of spending just at the very time the Fed is trying to dampen demand to fight the inflation cycle we are now in. Chair Powell's job has been made more difficult.

What is worse is that this is yet another sop to the higher education racket's privileged faculties and its ever growing beauracracy. The reason why student debt is so high, are the rents extracted by those elite groups. By foregiving student loans there is a wink and a nod to incoming students saying don't sweat borrowing the money; it will be forgiven down the line.  The solution to the student debt problem is not debt extinguishment, but rather a fundamental reform of higher education.

Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter: Erie Parallels

In 1979 President Jimmy Carter was faced with rising inflation accompanied by soaring house prices, an oil shock triggered by the Iranian Revolution, the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, and a suddenly hawkish Federal Reserve under its new chair, Paul Volcker. If this sounds all too familiar, it should.

 

Today we find President Joe Biden faced with rising inflation accompanied by soaring house prices, an oil price shock, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a newly hawkish Federal Reserve. It certainly seems like that history is yet again, if not repeating, certainly rhyming. In early 2021 we wrote about the potential for the 2020’s to be a rerun of “That 70’s Show.” ( See: Shulmaven: Roaring 20's or That 70's Show )  Moreover Biden seems to be copying Carter’s energy policy incoherence by supporting policies that will simultaneously increase demand and reduce supply. Thus, instead of roaring, the 2020’s are looking more and more like the stagflation of the 1970’s.

My Amazon Review of Bob Woodward's and Robert Costa's "Peril"

 

Dangerous Transition

 

Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa have written a widely quoted book on the last year of Donald Trump’s presidency and the first six months of Biden’s.  When reading about Trump’s last days in office I was expecting the worst and it was far worse than what I imagined. The man is evil. Fortunately, there were a few people in the Trump Administration who put the Constitution over their boss.

 

Now when reading an unsourced book that is Woodward’s style you have to guess who his sources were and what were their motivations. It is obvious that Joint Chiefs Chair Mark Milley was a source and he just today admitted he spoke to the authors and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper was obviously a source. They both come off well. A.G. William Barr was certainly a source and after enabling Trump early on, he refuses to go along with Trump’s “stop the steal.” My guess in talking to the authors he was trying to salvage his reputation. We also have Senator Lindsey Graham singing arias to the authors. He wants to have it both ways by saying Trump lost while remaining his golf buddy.

 

We saw a torn Vice President Mike Pence who finally goes along with Dan Quayle’s advice that he had no discretion in counting the electoral college ballots. How after the January 6^th insurrection, could Pence remain loyal to Trump is beyond me? Indeed, Milley characterized January 6^th as a dress rehearsal for what was to come, alluding to the 1905 uprising in Russia. Further Utah Senator Mike Lee played an important role in keeping Pence on the straight and narrow. Further with all of the subpoenas flying from the January 6^th Committee we will soon find out what exactly happened in the Trump White House on that day. What Woodward and Costa disclose has been widely reported, but I am sure there is much more.

 

The authors also discuss the Biden campaign and the early months of his administration. They portray Biden as very hands on with COVID-19 asking penetrating questions and the same goes double for his questions on Afghanistan. My guess the authors got their information from Mike Donilon and now Chief of Staff Ron Klain. I wish it were true, but my guess is that they were exaggerating.

 

With respect to Afghanistan, we all know that Biden supported withdrawal in the early days of the Obama Administration. Biden believed that the military rolled Obama and that was not going to happen to him. Simply put he was dead set on withdrawal. According to Woodward and Costa Biden asked many questions pertaining to Afghanistan, but not very many about the geo-strategic consequences. Several years ago, I had the good fortune to discuss this issue with former Joint Chiefs Chair Mike Mullen and former Secretary of Defense/CIA Director Bob Gates. My question to them was whether or not the U.S.’s retreat from the broader Middle-East (Morocco to Pakistan) was strategic or tactical? Both answered tactical with the hope it wasn’t strategic. Well, Biden answered that question with disastrous consequences. It is strategic. Further the way too academic Secretary of State Tony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan turned out to be completely clueless about what would happen after the U.S. announced its withdrawal.

 

With respect to domestic policy the authors go into a great deal of detail in examining how the $1.9 Trillion rescue plan passed. Then as now Senator Joe Manchin was a key player. The bottom line is that Manchin did not want Biden to fail on his first major effort and that is why it passed. Biden may not be so lucky with his reconciliation bill now before the Congress.

 

Woodward and Costa have written a very important first draft of history. It is well worth the read. And with Trump still holding sway over the GOP, we are still in peril.

For the full Amazon URL see: Dangerous Transition (amazon.com)

Joe Biden, Hang Down your Head in Shame

 I just listened to President Joe Biden's speech on Afghanistan. He was eloquent on the need to withdraw our troops from Afghanistan, but he failed to take any real responsibility for the disastrous withdrawal of our personnel and close allies in the country. The ongoing humanitarian failure is there for the world to see and it will only get worse from here once the Taliban is in full control. There was no contingency planning for the near instantaneous collapse of the Afghan government. Why? It was likely a combination of a massive intelligence failure and groupthink in the highest levels of government.

Heads should roll. He should have opened his speech by announcing the resignation of his national security advisor, Jake Sullivan. After our failure in Mogadishu with "Blackhawk Down" in 1993, Secretary of Defense Les Aspin resigned. 

This was not rocket science in predicting what is now transpiring. In May I tweeted that "Biden would rue the day he ordered the pullout." At the beginning of August, I tweeted it was "game over". While America sleeped  the Taliban were making deals with the tribal warlords to enable them to seize power region by region. Once the Afghans realized which way the wind was blowing the cut the best deals they could.

The long term tragedy of the debacle in Kabul is that America has lost trust throughout the world. By betraying our in-country Afghan allies we have sent messages from Taipei to Tel Aviv that America cannot  be trusted and in host of places individuals and countries will recalculate their position in the world. Further with the Taliban victory Pakistan has improved its strategic position vis a vis India which will likely lead to increased tensions on the subcontinent. All in all, not a pretty picture.

Kamala Harris' Poisoned Chalice

Earlier this week President Joe Biden put Kamala Harris in charge of solving, or at least ameliorating, the immigration crisis on the Mexican border. Because the Mexican border has been in an on-off crisis state for over two decades, her task, to say the least, will be extraordinarily difficult. Further the solution in the long run involves fixing the failed states of Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala is no easy task and it will take years. Importantly, Harris does not have the administrative experience needed for the task. Perhaps she will rise to meet the challenge, but that is no ways certain.

Thus, in the here an now, Harris might have to resort to Trumpian-like tactics to at least put a band-aid on the problem. Of course that would inevitably give rise to a hue and cry on the Democratic Left. Simply put the president has put her in a no-win situation and has given her a poisoned chalice.

Trump's Big Lie and the Legacy of 1918 Germany

Donald Trump is following the playbook of the 1918 German Right with his big lie that the 2020 election was “stolen” from him. Unfortunately, by saying it loud and saying it often a good chunk of his followers believes him and have sent him an astounding $175 million since election day.

 

Yesterday Jochen Bittner outlined the German history in an Op-Ed for the New York Times. (See Opinion | 1918 Germany Has a Warning for America - The New York Times (nytimes.com)  Bittner gets most of his history right with the German Army facing imminent defeat in World War I, Kaiser Wilhelm II abdicates on November 9 leaving the Reichstag in charge of the new Weimar government. It is that government believing in Wilson’s “Peace without Victors” and his Fourteen Points that signs an armistice with the allies on November 11. Where Bittner gets it wrong is that he said that armistice was signed by the German military. The key signatory was Mathias Erzberger, a politician for the Catholic Center Party, a foreign office official and two military officers representing the army and the navy. Erzberger would be assassinated three years later by a rightwing hit squad.

 

Because Germany was never physically invaded a rightwing myth was propagated that defeat came from a “stab in the back” orchestrated by the social democrats, the communists and, of course, the Jews. Instead of quickly dying out the myth grew after the Allies imposed harsh terms on Germany at Versailles in June 1919 and it became part and parcel of the vocabulary of every rightwing party, especially the Nazis. My guess is that like 1918 Germany, Trump’s $175 million is to keep his “They stole it” myth alive.

 

Perhaps more insidious and not mentioned by Bittner, was the success of the German Right in naming the Weimar government as “the November criminals.” This I fear is what Trump will do to President-Elect Biden and the Democrats next year. Once someone is branded a criminal anything goes, including violence. You can already see it in the physical threats made against former Trump officials and the dedicated state and local officials involved in the vote counting and certification processes.

 

We live in scary times and it behooves the Democrats and clear-eyed Republicans to go all out in counteracting Trump’s big lie.

Some Out of the Box Ideas for a Biden Unity Cabinet

 With the election behind us my thoughts now turn to what a Biden cabinet would look like, especially if he holds true to the unity theme he elucidated in his victory speech. The announced make up of the cabinet will be especially crucial in determining the winners in the Georgia Senate run-off where a decided move to the Left would all but elect the two Republican candidates.  Politico has just published their ideas as to who the front runners are for the major cabinet slots.  (See:https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/joe-biden-cabinet-picks-possible-choices-433431) I would be very comfortable with Michele Flournoy at Defense, Lael Brainard at Treasury, Ernest Moniz at Energy, Tom Udall at Interior, and Heidi Heitkamp at Agriculture.

Now here are my out of the box choices for several cabinet positions.

Attorney General - Merrick Garland. He is a D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals judge who was Obama's nominee for the Supreme Court that failed to get a Senate vote. He worked in the Clinton justice department and prosecuted the Oklahoma City bomber. His appointment would remove the stench left by the current administration.

Labor - Mary Daly. She is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and trained a labor economist. Before that she was research director at the bank. She started her academic career with a high school GED and thus she will have much to teach us about workforce development.

Health and Human Services - David Feinberg, M.D. He currently heads up Google's efforts in healthcare. Before that he was CEO of Geisinger Health Systems in Pennsylvania and the UCLA Hospital and Clinics. He has the perfect background for dealing with congress in that he was trained as a child psychiatrist. 

Education - Andrew Yang. He is a former presidential candidate with a background in technology and understand the needs of a 21st century workforce. If anyone can shakeup a stultified education system, it is he.

Housing and Urban Development - Keisha Lance Bottoms. She is currently mayor of Atlanta and showed great stamina during the civil disturbances of last summers. She has first hand knowledge on the needs of diverse and growing cities.

Commerce - John Kasich. He is a former Republican congressman and governor of Ohio who actively supported Biden. He would  have the support of the business community.

Transportation - Charlie Baker. He is the extraordinarily popular Republican governor of Massachusetts which has had more than its fair share of transportation issues. He gets results.

National Security Advisor - Fiona Hill. She was formerly a high staffer on the National Security Council who testified at Trump's impeachment trial. She literally wrote the book on Putin. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2019/07/my-amazon-review-of-fiona-hill-and.html)

Director of National Intelligence - Adam Schiff. He currently chairs the House Intelligence Committee.

National Economic Council - Greg Ip. He is The Wall Street Journal's lead economic commentator. He is knowledgeable on macro and micro issues and knows all of the players. He would truly be an honest broker. 

After Action Report on the 2020 Elections

While Shulmaven got Joe Biden winning right, I largely blew it everywhere else. Like too many, I got sucked into believing that the pollsters corrected for their mistakes in the 2016 election. Never again will I make that mistake.

 

I had Biden winning the popular vote by 7 points when it now looks like he will win it by 3 points. I had Biden winning Florida and North Carolina; wrong! I had him winning Arizona and Nevada, likely. And I had him winning Georgia, still too close to call.

 

With respect to the Senate I had the Democrats gaining a net of 5 seats. As of today, the Democrats are up one seat with two seats to be determined in a January runoff in Georgia. Shulmaven would sure like to own a TV station in Atlanta. It is my guess today that the Republicans are likely to hold both seats.

 

In the House I had the Democrats picking up 8-10 seats; it now looks like they will lose 8-10 seats. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will soon find out what it was like for her Republican predecessors Ryan and Boehner to run an unruly caucus. It will not be pretty for her. 

To me the big takeaways from the election are:

1.     The Trump tactic of tagging the Democrats as radical leftists worked. Defunding the police and talking about socialism might work in New York, but not too many places elsewhere. Instead of being a plus, “the Squad” turned out to be a huge negative.

 

2.     The notion of a monolithic bloc of “people of color” crashed and burned. There are more differences than commonalities among African Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans and Asians. For example, it certainly did not help when Black Lives Matter protestors in Miami carried a flag with Che Guevara’s picture on it. To them it may have been a symbol of liberation, but to Miami’s Cuban and Venezuelan populations it was a symbol of totalitarian oppression.  Outside of Florida Hispanics in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas shifted markedly towards Trump.

 

3.     Biden’s position on fracking cost the Democrats two rising stars in the House, Kendra Horn from Oklahoma and Xochitl Torres-Small from New Mexico. *

 

4.     California, a state which voted for Biden by a 2-1 majority rallied against liberalism in three key ballot propositions and likely a fourth one. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2020/10/some-thoughts-on-four-controversial.html) Specifically the voters opposed a measure allowing for racial preferences in university admissions and state employment, opposed a measure that would allow for stricter rent control, supported a measure that treats gig workers as contractors rather than employees and thus far the opposition to amending Proposition 13 to allow for much higher taxes on commercial property is heading for defeat.

 

What the election seems to represent is that 2016 was not a fluke. America remains a very divided country and with Donald Trump acting like the world’s worst sore loser is certainly not helping things. We are  a country in a great need of spiritual healing. We must listen to one another, and I pray that Joe Biden will find the strength in him to lead us in that task.

 

*I financially supported her re-election efforts.

2020 Elections: A Good Night for Biden and the Democrats, a Bad Night for Trump

 

At last the election is just two days away. The way it looks to me, consistent with the recent polling data, is that Joe Biden will win the popular vote by a margin of 52-45-3 percent and it now looks like he will decisively win the battle for the electoral college by a margin of 350-188. I have Biden winning all the Clinton states of 2016 and adding Arizona, Florida, Georgia (yes), North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2^nd congressional district. His majority will be based on the votes of suburban women with the biggest gender gap ever, Blacks, seniors and the young. In House races, the Democrats are likely to pick up a net of between 8-10 seats. This will largely replicate the strength in the suburbs that occurred 2018 with a few seats coming from North Carolina’s redistricting.

 

The call for the Senate is much trickier. Put bluntly there are way too many extremely close races that can go either way. My best guess is that will pick up a net gain of five seats bringing their majority to 52-47 with one seat awaiting a Georgia runoff in January. I have the Democrats losing the Jones seat in Alabama while picking up Cunningham in North Carolina, Kelly in Arizona, Ossoff in Georgia, Bullock in Montana (an upset), Hickenlooper in Colorado and Gideon in Maine. In case of Gideon we probably will not know until next week to allow for Maine’s ranked choice voting tabulation.

 

HEALTH WARNING: The Senate races will be really close and as result there will be a high margin of error. If I am roughly right on the presidential race and if the Republicans do much better than I have predicted my explanation would be that enough Republican crossover voters and independents voted Republican fearing that a Democratic Senate would lead to packing the Supreme Court and runaway liberal legislation.