The State of the Presidential Race

 Over the past two months the Democrats have risen from their severely depressed state of being in mourning over Joe Biden to an exalted manic state hailing Vice President Kamala Harris as their new savior. Last week’s very successful convention cemented Harris’ leadership in the party, and she is now a small favorite to win the election in November.  However, I would caution that the current manic phase can quickly turn once again to a depressive state.

 

The most important thing that happened at the convention was what did not happen. As many feared, including myself, the convention did not turn out to be a rerun of 1968. It went off flawlessly and Harris came out of the convention as a forward-looking optimist as opposed to Donald Trump’s backward-looking pessimism. Indeed, somehow the sitting vice president became the candidate of change and Donald Trump became the de facto incumbent. As I wrote in July, this will be the year of the anti-incumbent and if Harris can maintain her image as challenger she will win. ( See: Shulmaven: Incumbents Beware )

 

Further buttressing her position is that the propaganda organs  of the state (ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, Washington Post, New York Times, Facebook, and TikTok)  gushed over her acceptance speech. (See: Shulmaven: America's Party Line )  So craven have the mass media been is that their unqualified support for Harris has yet to pass the test of a single interview. In fact, Time magazine did a hagiographic cover story on her without an interview, truly unprecedented.

 

Meantime Harris’ economic proposals have drawn criticism from even normally left-of-center quarters. Her proposals for price caps on groceries, rent control and a $25,000 tax credit for new home buyers make little sense. Of course, Trump’s proposals calling for mass deportations, tariffs on all imports and executive branch control over the Federal Reserve are zanier than what Harris has proposed.

 

The critical tests for Harris will come when she actually has to do real interviews and the September 10^th debate with Trump where she is the presumptive favorite. If Harris is to maintain the mantle of change, she will have to successfully answer the following question: On, what policies do you differ with President Biden? My guess is that she will be hard pressed to answer that question which will leave a big opening for Trump.