Incumbents Beware

The tide of elections around the world are sending an ominous signal for incumbents everywhere. In India Prime Minister Nerendra Modi failed to achieve the widely expected super majority in parliament, the Conservatives in the UK got wiped out with their vote total dropping from 44% to 24% in the prior election, and while Labour won a huge majority in Parliament sending Keir Starmer to 10 Downing Street, it did so with only 34% of the vote. The spoiler was Nigel Farage's fringe Reform Party which took 14% of the vote. In France the votes are still being counted with the French Left winning a surprising plurality of the votes, while Marine Le Pen's rightwing party disappointed, but the real loser was French President Emanuel Macron

What all this means for the United States is that President Joe Biden. with all of his age related troubles. is in a world of hurt. Even if Vice President Kamala Harris succeeds Biden as the nominee, she will be viewed as an incumbent and hence a loser. The only choice the Democrats have would be to nominate a new candidate in an open convention. That candidate would certainly not be an incumbent. Indeed, in the minds of the voters Trump would then be the incumbent and headed for a loss. I know it is high risk, but that is the only path for a Democratic victory. 

Before the past few weeks was my view was that we would see a reversal of fortune in American politics with the Republicans retaking the White House and the Senate and losing the House to the Democrats. However, if things don't turn around soon, we could be headed for a Republican sweep.