Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts

Friday, July 3, 2026

Ukraine Goes on the Offensive

 Shulmaven has been commenting on Russo-Ukraine War since 2014 when the Russian “green men” seized Crimea. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-ukraine-what-is-to-be-done.html ) The all-out Russian invasion began in February 2022 and if we date the war’s start to then, the Russo-Ukraine War is now longer than the fighting in World War I. Similar to World War I, the battlefield has been stalemated since the end of 2022 with a “no-man’s land” in the east separating the forces and on ongoing Russian drone/missile blitz on Ukrainian cities in the West.

 

However, of late, Ukraine has gone on the offensive with drone and missile attacks reaching into the heart of Russia. Both Moscow and St. Petersburg have witnessed the war coming home. More important, Ukraine has taken out more than 25% of Russia’s oil refining capacity triggering gasoline rationing that Putin was forced to admit last week.

 

Under severe wartime conditions Ukraine has built up the capacity to mass produce long range drones and missiles. What we are witnessing in Ukraine is a revolution in military affairs where ground forces have become immobilized by the fear of drone attacks and that swarms of low-cost drones can overcome Russia’s sophisticated air defenses. No region in European Russia is safe and perhaps we will soon see Ukraine set ablaze the west Siberian oilfields, a course I have long advocated.

 

Russia is now in a box. Instead of their once thought of inevitable victory, it is now slowly losing the war. Putin will have to accept this reality or attempt to widen the War into Poland or the Baltic states. His goal would be to force NATO into pressuring Ukraine to accept its demands. Of course, this high risk strategy could very well bring NATO directly into the war with unknowable consequences.

 

NATO is meeting in Ankara, Turkey next week. I am sure Ukraine will be a major topic of conversation. Given Ukraine’s battle-tested army and its advanced weapons production capabilities, it would seem to me that NATO needs Ukraine more than Ukraine needing NATO. It wouldn’t surprise me that while the meeting is in progress, Ukraine will launch its largest air assault on Russia to date.

Wednesday, April 1, 2026

NATO: R.I.P., b.1949 - d. 2026?

NATO is dead, or in the process of dying. NATO was born when the United States stood alone militarily and economically as the West's  power while Europe was weak. Europe is no longer weak, but it certainly acts that way. If if it had the will, Europe would be capable of defending itself. Hence the founding predicate of NATO no longer holds.

The proximate cause of NATO's demise was President Trump's announcing his willingness to seize Greenland by force from NATO ally Denmark earlier this year, (See:Shulmaven: Donnie Does Davos* and Mayhem in Minneapolis ) his failure to consult on his war plans to attack Iran, and most important the the obstruction of NATO allies Spain, France and Italy to deny their respective airspaces to the U.S. Air Force's efforts to to attack Iran. Indeed they even denied access to the U.S. air bases in those countries. It is one thing for them to be passive, it is far another thing to actually obstruct the U.S. military. 

It is not as if NATO has no skin in the game in the Persian Gulf. Indeed their economies are suffering far more from the rise in the price of oil than the U.S. I don't know what, if anything, President Trump will say tonight on NATO, but the clock is ticking on its demise. Further it will require congressional approval for the United States to withdraw from NATO. Of course, the only winner in this will be Russia's Putin

Monday, January 19, 2026

History Rhyming with Trump and Greenland

Mark Twain noted that history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it rhymes. This is exactly what is happing with Donald Trump's proposal to seize Greenland. Before Hitler took the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938 he threatened to invade. Similarly, Putin made noises about taking Crimea in 2014 before invading that part of Ukraine. It seems that Trump is giving new life to my "Reliving the 1930's series. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2023/11/reliving-1930s-part-5.html ) The difference here is that instead of acting like a leader, Trump is acting like a three year-old toddler. He neeeeds Greenland. Unfortunately, his tantrum is breaking up NATO and like the previous episodes I noted, it will make the world a far more dangerous place.

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Some Thoughts on Trump's National Security Strategy

Earlier this week the Trump Administration released its updated National Security Strategy. (See: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf ) Needless to say that given the howls that went up, it was far from being universally applauded, especially in Europe. Europe is rightly concerned that the era of having a NATO umbrella over the continent is over. However, given earlier commentaries coming from Vice President Vance, in particular, the document should not come as a surprise. Trump’s policy of selling out allies and cozying up to adversaries is all there in black and white.

I have three preliminary thoughts on the strategy. First, it is harkening back to the America First of 1939-1941. It focuses in on hemispheric security to the exclusion of Europe and just has America First leader Charles Lindbergh was open to a modus vivendi with Nazi Germany, here we have America open to a condominium with Putin’s Russia. It certainly does not bode well for Ukraine and for that matter Israel. Further, the strategy puts policy muscle behind Trump’s Caribbean buildup against Venezuela. To the Trump Administration Latin America is now part of an American economic zone.

Second, there is the strong smell of Yalta in the document. Instead of Roosevelt and Stalin dividing up Europe, we now have Trump, Putin and especially Xi dividing up the world into spheres of interest. The glue holding the deal together is economic self-interest. Where Taiwan fits into this over the longer term is very ambiguous.

Third, there are some hard policy realities behind the document. Europe has the ability to defend itself against Russia; it only lacks the will. Russia remains bogged down in Ukraine after more than three years of war indicating it is not as strong as once thought. If Ukraine can hold its own against Russia, so too can a much larger Europe.

What perhaps pissed off Europe the most was that the document called out its “civilization decline.” Unfortunately, that is the reality, and Europe has to recognize that advanced welfare states cannot run a policy of open borders without severe consequences. Simply put, in a generation Europe will not be the Europe of history. Net net, the policy calls for the U.S. to be an offshore balancer with respect to the world outside of Latin America. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/08/my-review-of-andrew-lamberts-no-more.html )


Monday, September 1, 2025

Donald Trump (National Socialist*)

President Donald Trump is nominally a Republican, but in reality, he is putting us on the road to an American version of the national socialism of the 1930’s. Domestically he is attempting to seize the commanding heights of the economy by taking ownership positions in Intel and U.S. Steel and by taking a 15% cut from NVIDIA’s sales to China. ( https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/07/on-road-to-serfdom.html ) Remember that under national socialism businesses remain under private ownership but are under the control of the government. This is a far cry from capitalism. 

 

Further Trump is challenging the independence of the Federal Reserve by demanding the removal of Lisa Cook from the board for allegedly committing mortgage fraud. How did this come about? His minion Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, pulled the mortgage of files of Lisa Cook as well as the files from such Trump adversaries as New York Attorney General Letitia James and Senator Adam Schiff. Let us be clear, this was no accident and soon the IRS and other federal agencies will get into the act.

 

To enhance his powers domestically Trump has appointed his cronies in the Justice Department, the F.B.I., the regulatory agencies and on the courts. Indeed, one of his private attorneys, Todd Blanche is now a deputy attorney general, and another, Eric Bove, was just confirmed to the Court of Appeals. Perhaps more serious is that he has purged a host of officers in the military and the CIA who might be more loyal to the constitution than to him. A defining feature of national socialism is loyalty to the leader, not to the law.

 

In keeping with his national socialist tendencies Trump is in the process of establishing a 150,000-member national police force in the form of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers. These officers could at the stoke of a pen be empowered to engage in broader law enforcement activity and unlike the military they would not be subject to the strictures of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878. Indeed, Trump seems to be using the military in violation of that act anyway. Meantime many U.S. citizens have been caught up in the roundup of illegal immigrants.

 

Internationally Trump through his tariff policies is attempting to turn the open economy of the United States into more of an autarky where domestic production would be sheltered from international competition. In imposing his tariff regime Trump ignored Congress which has near exclusive power over tariffs and taxation. Trump has now lost twice the courts on his tariffs; and it will soon be up to the Supreme Court to rule on them. Further Trump has imposed punitive tariffs on our allies all while cozying up to dictators Putin and Xi. This all part of the national socialist playbook. It might be stretch, but could there be a Trump, Putin, Xi axis?

 

All the while the moral eunuchs of the Republican Party have either cheered Trump on or silently acquiesced. ( See from 2019:  https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-republican-moral-eunuchs-and.html ) Similarly, fearful of retaliation, the business community has remained silent and bowed to his wishes. Thus, in eight short months Trump has seized control of a good part of the economy and the security apparatus of the state.

 

To be sure this not the first time the U.S. experimented with national socialism in peacetime. In 1933 President Roosevelt used the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) and the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) to take control of a good part of the economy. Fortunately, the NIRA was declared unconstitutional in 1935 and the RFC withered away. Let us hope the Supreme Court does the same thing to Trump’s tariffs.

 

Later in 1971 President Nixon imposed a system of price, wage, rent and dividend controls on the entire economy. Nixon also used the IRS against his enemies and spied on his political opponents. The Nixon controls expired in early 1973 and he was impeached in 1974. Say what you will about Nixon; he respected the process. I doubt that can be said of Trump. In 2009 President Obama temporarily took control of the banking and automobile industries.

 

To conclude Trump is in the process of creating an American version of national socialism. I am not going to use the polite words of state capitalism or American Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics. Forewarned is forearmed!

 

*- The reference to national socialism is derived from Germany’s Nazi Party. The official name of the Nazi Party was Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei  or NSDAP which in English is the National Socialist German Workers Party. The Italian version of national socialism was called Partito Nazionale Fascista, PNF which in English is the National Fascist Party.

Saturday, August 23, 2025

Trump, Putin, and Ukraine: Part 2

Last week we wrote up what we thought was a successful conclusion to the Trump-European-Ukraine meeting in Washington D.C. ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/08/trump-putin-and-ukraine-now-comes-hard.html ) Unfortunately, little did we realize that Trump and his hapless special ambassador Steve Witkoff, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, were played for suckers by Putin. Put bluntly, Putin did not agree to security guarantees from the Europeans to be coordinated by the United States. Putin wants all of the Donbass and no European troops in Ukraine.  

So what is to be done now? The U.S. and Europe should step up arms shipments to Ukraine and greenlight Ukrainian attacks deep into Russia. In addition both the U.S. and Europe should sanction Russia to the max. The attacks have already begun with Russia's energy infrastructure now under long range attack. Gas lines are now forming in Russia. In addition, as we have argued in the past, Ukraine should set ablaze the Russian oilfields in Western Siberia. The path to a negotiated settlement requires Russia to feel real pain putting the ball in Trump's court. Hopefully that will happen.   

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Trump, Putin, and Ukraine: Now Comes the Hard Part

I have been writing about Ukraine since 2014 (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-ukraine-what-is-to-be-done.html ) and as recently as last March. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/03/shame.html ) Yesterday’s White House summit meeting with European leaders and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky reversed the very negative vibes set off by Friday’s Trump-Putin Alaska summit where it was feared that Trump was about to sell out Ukraine. The conversations were both serious and friendly and it seems that there was a real reproachment between Trump and Zelensky.

 

However, the hard part is now ahead of us. It remains to be seen whether or not Putin will actually meet with Zelensky. Today Switzerland offered up its good offices as a meeting site. Should that happen, it would open the way for a trilateral summit with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky.

 

What has to be ironed out is the precise border between Ukraine and the Russian held provinces. That border would have to be defensible, which means that the current Ukrainian position in the Donetsk region would have to be maintained, something that Russia is opposed to. Another question is what the European security guarantee would cover.  For example, would it include troops on ground, air support and rebuilding assistance? Perhaps more important what would be the modalities of the United States’ role as security coordinator. Would it include intelligence sharing, military hardware, and air support? Although Trump has ruled out combat troops, would it allow for support troops involved in training. And don’t forget Putin has a vote in all of this.

 

Nevertheless, for the first time since the war started over three years ago there is a pathway to a settlement. It certainly won’t be perfect because Putin’s aggression would be rewarded, but it will enable Ukraine to be a viable and prosperous state. Remember, diplomacy is the art of the possible.

Monday, May 19, 2025

My Review of Shaun Walker's "The Illegals"

“The Americans” in Real Life

 “The Americans” was a hit TV show from 2013-2018 where it portrayed the daily life of two Soviet illegals and their two children as they worked their spy craft against America. Here Guardian reporter Shaun Walker delves into the history of Soviet illegals from Lenin to Putin. Indeed, before the revolution, Lenin himself was illegal in Britain. Because the in the early days Soviet Russia was a pariah state, there only way of obtaining intelligence on the West was through the use of illegals. As the Soviets obtained embassies, they integrated the work of the illegals with spies working under the cover of being embassy officials.


In this deeply researched book, which included interviews with former illegals in Russia and his use of the Mitrokhin files Walker puts together a history of Russia’s use of this method of espionage. He uses several case studies that would include Dmitry Bystrolyotov, Stalin’s Romeo and “Baron von Hohenstein.” To me the most fascinating spy was Iosif Grigulevich who was involved in a failed attempt to assassinate Trotsky and later as Teodoro Castro became a Costa Rican diplomat,

 Castro was ordered by Stalin, against the wishes of the KGB to assassinate Marshall Tito. Stalin’s death intervened and the order was never carried out. Who knows what the consequence would have been had he succeeded.

 Americans first learned of the Soviet illegal operation with the arrest of Rudolf Abel in 1957. Posing as an artist, Abel worked as a courier for other Russian spies operating in the country. In 1962 he was exchanged for the U-2 pilot, Francis Gary Powers. That is how high the Soviets valued him.

 In 2010 the American public learned of a roundup of 10 illegals in Boston and New York who ranged from being a high-end realtor to a Kennedy School graduate. It was their arrest that became the basis for the TV series. They were caught be- cause the CIA had an informant high in the SVR, the international intelligence service of Russia.

 In the 1970’s Putin watched the “Stierlitz” show on Russian television. That hit show featured the work of illegals in the West. Apparently, that made enough of an impression on him to become a KGB agent, and the rest is history. As president Putin stepped up the illegal program.

As depicted in the TV show, despite all of the training, the pressure on families was significant.  Many broke under the pressure of the job and the need to maintain there new identity. Indeed, there is a scene where an illegal in labor was fearful of blurting out Russian language expressions for pain.

 By 2016 it became apparent that through social media identities could be created in an instant Those social media identities have been used to great effect ever since to create discord in the West, especially during American elections. Thus, going forward the Russian need for illegals might be lessened.

 Shaun Walker has presented to us a very readable book on the underworld of the use of illegals in spy craft. He also demonstrates how asymmetrical the use of illegals is. It is much easier to create an illegal in America than it is in Russia. Given that asymmetry the Russians will continue to use them.

Saturday, March 29, 2025

The Week the Wheels Started Falling Off the Trump Train

 Last week the wheels started falling off the Trump train. We learned from Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg, who some how was patched into a national security call on the messaging Ap Signal where he listened into a haphazard discussion on the imminent attack on Houthi bases in Yemen. To have such a discussion on Signal was a clear breach of national security by the principals involved who included National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. To add insult to injury, the principals lied about their conversation, only to be shown up by Goldberg, who published a transcript of the call. 


Also on the call was Trump’s envoy to Ukraine and the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. Real estate lawyer Witkoff committed the cardinal sin by listening in on the call from Moscow, where every normal diplomat knows everything is bugged by the FSB. Witkoff is a complete amateur in diplomacy, and he is so far in over his head. Further, Putin and is Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov have been run rings around experienced American diplomats over the past two decades. Simply put, Witkoff is being taken to the cleaners. 


This affair, now called Signalgate, will have a lasting effect on the Trump Administration. If any the American people don’t forgive, it is incompetence. Joe Biden learned this the hard way with his chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.


Later in the week Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported automobiles and trucks with its obvious inflationary consequences. In my largely Latino gym, the leading topic of conversation were the auto tariffs, and their imposition is obviously feeding into inflationary psychology.


The week closed out with new data on the deflator for personal consumption expenditures, which for core goods and services in February came in at a higher than expected 0.4%. Inflation has not gone away, and my guess is that market hopes for rate cuts later this year will be quashed. Not surprisingly, consumer confidence in March plummeted to a three year low. 


Further unnerving the public’s mood was Trump’s attacks on Big Law. Two big law firms (Paul Weiss and Skadden Arps) caved into his threats of pulling security clearances and access to Federal buildings. Apparently, they were guilty of supporting anti-Trump efforts. Fortunately, three firms (Perkins Coie, WilmerHale and Jenner Block) successfully filed suit to halt his efforts at intimidation. I am sure that this did not go unnoticed by Chief Justice John Roberts, a veteran of Big Law firm Hogan and Hartson. This will not augur well for the administration when their appeals hit the Supreme Court.


The already weak stock market took notice of these events and declined 1.5% on week and it is now down 5% on the year. Remember Tariff Day is set for next week on Wednesday April 2nd. To close I would note that the day before Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 8%.


Saturday, March 1, 2025

SHAME

I never felt so ashamed for my country than I did yesterday when I watched President Trump bully Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the oval office in front of a worldwide television audience. In Trump’s mind Zelensky was guilty of not kissing his ass so Trump stood foursquare for Putin’s aggression in Ukraine and in the process seemed to abandon the Western Alliance. I really should not have been surprised because his administration threw Ukraine under the bus at the Munich Security Conference two weeks ago. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/02/trump-and-new-hitler-stalin-pact.html


As I noted then what Trump is doing is not appeasement, but rather he has made the U.S. a co-aggressor with Putin’s Russia. This will end badly with China being the only real winner. If there is a small silver lining here it will be to rouse Europe from its slumber by forcing a massive increase in its hitherto inadequate military expenditures.


In the aftermath of Trump’s bullying, I was nauseated to watch his sycophants cheer him on. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and Senator Lindsay Graham all belong in the hall of shame. Trump wanted a cabinet of suck-ups; he certainly has one.

 

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Trump and the New Hitler-Stalin Pact

In the early morning hours of August 24th,1939 Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov and German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop entered into a pact that would ratify the division of Poland and the ceding of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Bessarabia to the Soviets. The press would soon call it the Hitler-Stalin Pact that enabled Germany to invade Poland on September 1st and Soviet Russia to invade three weeks later. 

Today President Trump, echoing Russian propaganda, called Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky a "dictator" and accused him of starting the war in Ukraine, a complete lie. Put bluntly, Trump has thrown Ukraine under the bus. My guess is that Putin called in all his cronies and broke out the vodka in celebration of a new Hitler-Stalin Pact. And to put icing on the cake for Putin, Defense Secretary Hegseth announced substantial budget cuts for the Pentagon.  Instead of dividing Poland, Trump and Putin are setting the predicate for the division of Ukraine. The result in 1939 was a World War. I fear a Trump-Putin condominium will lead to a similar result. 

For previous posts on Ukraine, see for example: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-ukraine-what-is-to-be-done.html and https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2022/03/mr-zelinskyy-goes-to-washington-via-zoom.html.

Saturday, November 16, 2024

My Review of Bob Woodward's "War"

Biden’s Wars

Washington Post writer Bob Woodward has chronicled every president since Bill Clinton. In this book he focuses on Biden’s three wars, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Gaza. Unfortunately, he fails to discuss the most electorally significant war that was a result of Biden’s open border policy. Although not characterized as a war, the invasion/arrival of 10 million illegal/undocumented immigrants at our southern border seemed like a war to those Americans living in the Southwest and later to those living in the cities where they were bussed to. 

Woodward glances over the debacle in Afghanistan where Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from that country permanently reduced his poll standing. I have yet to see who was fired for allowing this to happen.

Biden initially does much better with Ukraine. Here we witness the actions of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin seamlessly performing as a team. Of course, it is my guess that those three were Woodward’s sources for what happened. Benefitting from excellent intelligence the team warns Putin and notifies Ukrainian President Zelensky that Russia was about to invade. The public release of the intelligence was unprecedented, and it helped prepare Ukraine and the American people for what was to lie ahead.

Contrary to expectations in the West, Ukraine survived the initial Russian assault and then began a counter offensive aided by U.S. weaponry. It is here where the Biden team fails. Instead of going all-in with all kinds of offensive weapons, the team dilly-dallies preventing Ukraine from pressing its advantage. As a result, the stalemate we have now ensues. The Biden rationale for going slowly was the fear that Russia might introduce nuclear weapons into the conflict. Although plausible, we don’t have any Russian sources to back this conjecture up.

After the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, Biden goes all-in in support of Israel, and he visits the country a few weeks after. However, after the casualties start rising in Gaza the administration starts going soft. This is highlighted in the July 1924 meeting between Vice President Kamala Harris, now a presidential candidate, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While being supportive and diplomatic with Netanyahu in private, she stuns the Israelis with a very strong public statement critical about how Israel is fighting the war and the casualties in Gaza it is causing. That along with a slowdown in certain arms deliveries to Israel, highlighted the growing breach between the Biden White House and Netanyahu.

In all three cases it seems to me that Biden’s strategy was to “end wars” not to win them. (See:  https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2024/05/joe-no-win-biden.html) This strategy ended in disaster in Afghanistan, and it is certainly not helping in Ukraine and Gaza.

There were two widely reported scoops coming out of Woodward’s book. The first being that Trump supplied Putin with Covid testing kits when they were scarce in the U.S. and second Army Chief of Staff Milley calling Trump a fascist. There was third one, not so widely reported where Biden demonstrated significant mental decline at a Silicon Valley fundraiser in June 2023, a year before his disastrous debate performance. The country would have been saved a lot of anguish if this were reported earlier.

Woodward’s book is a helpful guide to understanding the Biden years, but it is far from definitive. We learn more as his staffers write their own memoirs in the years to come.


Monday, May 27, 2024

My Amazon Review of David Sanger's "New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion....."

Pre-War, Not New Cold Wars

 

New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger is way too close to his sources, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage. It is an advantage because Sanger puts us behind the scenes to give us a very real sense of the diplomatic events of the past four years, especially the tick-tock of America’s warning to the world about the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.  It is a disadvantage, because instead of being a clear-eyed reporter, he was sucked into the world views of Sullivan and Blinken, an apologia, if you will.  He buys into the idea that we will give enough aid to prevent a Russian win, but not enough to allow for a Ukraine victory.

 

In 2014 after Russia’s invasion of Crimea, I noted that this would the start of something big and both the U.S. and Europe would have to respond forcefully. (See:  Shulmaven: The Ukraine: What is to be Done )However, both the E.U. and the Obama White House accepted Russia’s aggression as a fait accompli. Thus, too me it was no surprise that given the lack of will in the West, that Putin would sooner or later go in for the kill.

 

 

If you want to put dates on the start of the new cold wars between the United States and Russia and China, you can start at the 2007 Munich Security Conference where Putin decisively separated himself from the West. In the case of China, you can use Chairman Xi’s 2013 address to the Communist Party where he girded the party cadre to prepare for the struggles ahead. Simply put, the whole policy framework that brought China into the global economy was a failure. In both cases Russia and China returned to their dictatorial roots with Putin viewing himself as the “new Tsar” and Xi as the “new Mao.” (See: Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy's " Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin")

 

Sanger rightly spends much time on the ongoing cyber war with both Russia and China being aggressors attacking both governmental and private web sites. It is here where such private companies as Microsoft, Google and Palantir play leading roles in defense of our country. We also can’t forget Elon Musk’s StarLink system initially saved the day in Ukraine.

 

Sanger picks up on Sullivan’s industrial policy views where the U.S. is now in the business of subsidizing America’s chip production. Because computer chips are at the core of both the modern economy and defense hardware, it makes little sense to import most of our chips from abroad, especially where the bulk of those chips come from very vulnerable Taiwan. (  Shulmaven: My Review* of Chris Miller's "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology") Indeed, in the new Cold War, Taiwan is the new Berlin.

 

Sanger is too casual in his discussion of the new Russo-Chinese alliance that was formed at the Beijing Olympics in 2022 where the two partners stated their relationship was “without limits.” Hello, this foreign policy nightmare happened on the Biden Administration’s watch.  If Kissinger got credit for splitting the Soviets from China, shouldn’t the Sullivan/Blinken team get the blame. Within days Russia invaded Ukraine.

 

What is wrong with Sanger’s book is that he does not discuss defense policy. If we are in new Cold Wars with Russia and China, our stagnant defense budget certainly does not reflect that. Biden in his 2023 State of the Union address called attention to Franklin Roosevelt’s 1941 address discussing how dangerous our world has become. However, he did not mention that a week before Roosevelt called for America to become “the arsenal of democracy.”  ( See:  Shulmaven: President Biden's State of the Union: Strong on Form Weak on Substance) The defense budget would quadruple in the following year.  Similarly, Biden has yet to make the equivalent of the 1947 Truman Doctrine speech and Sanger has not reported any national security council memorandum equivalent to the 1950 NSC-68 which called for “a massive build-up of conventional and nuclear weapons.”

 

Sanger hardly discusses Iran and North Korea who are objectively aligned with Russia and China, a serious omission. It seems to me the world is a far more dangerous place than the new cold wars that Sanger suggests that are now with us. To me, we are in a far more dangerous pre-war period that we are ill-prepared to deal with it. (See: Shulmaven: Shulmaven Anticipates Hal Brands Foreign Affairs Article on Pre-WW II and Today)


For the full amazon Review see: Pre-War, Not New Cold Wars (amazon.com)

 

 

Sunday, February 18, 2024

Time for a Discharge Petition

Time is running out for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The Senate just passed a $95 billion appropriation for assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Putin's murder of Russian democrat Alexei Navalny reinforces the need for immediate action. However, Putin puppet Speaker of the House Mike Brown is holding up action on the legislation. It is he and the Putinista caucus in the Republican Party along with the anti-Israel Hamas caucus within the Democratic Party that are working against the desperately needed aid package. It is important to remember that the Hamas caucus and the Putinista caucus have one thing in common: they both hate America.

Thus when the House reconvenes from its recess on February 28th it will be time for Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies to work in concert with the remaining internationalists in the Republican Party to orchestrate a discharge petition to put the legislation up for a vote on the House floor. Sure it will take political courage for Republicans to vote against their speaker, but that is what they get paid the big bucks for.  Failure to pass the legislation will put us one step closer to the next big war. (See:  Shulmaven: Shulmaven Anticipates Hal Brands Foreign Affairs Article on Pre-WW II and Today)   

Saturday, February 3, 2024

Shulmaven Anticipates Hal Brands Foreign Affairs Article on Pre-WW II and Today

In an article entitled "The Next Global War: How Today's Regional Conflicts Resemble the Ones that Produced World War II" on January 26th in Foreign Affairs, Hal Brands, the Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote as follows See:https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/next-global-war) :

"World War II was the aggregation of three regional crises: Japan’s rampage in China and the Asia-Pacific; Italy’s bid for empire in Africa and the Mediterranean; and Germany’s push for hegemony in Europe and beyond. In some ways, these crises were always linked. Each was the work of an autocratic regime with a penchant for coercion and violence. Each involved a lunge for dominance in a globally significant region. Each contributed to what U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, in 1937, called a spreading “epidemic of world lawlessness.” Even so, this wasn’t an integrated mega-conflict from the outset."

and:

"The parallels between this earlier era and the present are striking. Today, as in the 1930s, the international system is facing three sharp regional challenges. China is rapidly amassing military might as part of its campaign to eject the United States from the western Pacific—and, perhaps, become the world’s preeminent power. Russia’s war in Ukraine is the murderous centerpiece of its long-standing effort to reclaim primacy in eastern Europe and the former Soviet spaceIn the Middle East, Iran and its coterie of proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and many others—are waging a bloody struggle for regional dominance against Israel, the Gulf monarchies, and the United States. Once again, the fundamental commonalities linking the revisionist states are autocratic governance and geopolitical grievance; in this case, a desire to break a U.S.-led order that deprives them of the greatness they desire. Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran are the new “have not” powers, struggling against the “haves”: Washington and its allies.

Two of these challenges have already turned hot. The war in Ukraine is also a vicious proxy contest between Russia and the West; Russian President Vladimir Putin is buckling down for a long, grinding struggle that could last for years. Hamas’s attack on Israel last October—enabled, if perhaps not explicitly blessed, by Tehran—triggered an intense conflict that is creating violent spillover across that vital region. Iran, meanwhile, is creeping toward nuclear weapons, which could turbocharge its regional revisionism by indemnifying its regime against an Israeli or U.S. response. In the western Pacific and mainland Asia, China is still relying mostly on coercion short of war. But as the military balance shifts in sensitive spots such as the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, Beijing will have better options—and perhaps a bigger appetite—for aggression."


Shulmaven wrote last November (Shulmaven: Reliving the 1930's - Part 5 ), in far more concise prose, something very similar to Brand's core idea. We are gratified that our thoughts are very similar to that of such a distinguished scholar of global strategy as Professor Brands.  Indeed we recently reviewed his most recent book on strategy. (See: Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Hal Brands' Ed. "The New Makers of Modern Strategy...." ) Our thoughts of last November are highlighted below and if anything our view has been amplified by last week's U.S. response to a drone at attack on a Jordan base that killed three Americans.

"We started this series in March 2014 ( Shulmaven: Reliving the 1930s)  with Putin taking Crimea and using his proxies in eastern Ukraine and the last one was in April 2017 with  Trump’s and Obama’s vacillation in Syria in 2013 and 2017. ( Shulmaven: Reliving the 1930s - Part 4) With this blog I go further in that I now believe that we are no longer in the Post-Cold War Era, but rather we are now in what future historians will call a pre-war era.

 

Instead of facing the Berlin-Rome-Tokyo Axis we now face the Russia-China-Iran North Korea Axis We see this new axis playing out in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Taiwan Straits. All the signs were there in the 1930’s with Japan invading Manchuria in 1931 and the heart of China in 1937; Italy invading Abyssinia in 1935, and Germany reoccupying the Rhineland in 1936. However, it was not until 1938 that they were taken seriously."

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Reliving the 1930's - Part 5

We started this series in March 2014 ( Shulmaven: Reliving the 1930s)  with Putin taking Crimea and using his proxies in eastern Ukraine and the last one was in April 2017 with  Trump’s and Obama’s vacillation in Syria in 2013 and 2017. ( Shulmaven: Reliving the 1930s - Part 4) With this blog I go further in that I now believe that we are no longer in the Post-Cold War Era, but rather we are now in what future historians will call a pre-war era.

 

Instead of facing the Berlin-Rome-Tokyo Axis we now face the Russia-China-Iran North Korea Axis We see this new axis playing out in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Taiwan Straits. All the signs were there in the 1930’s with Japan invading Manchuria in 1931 and the heart of China in 1937; Italy invading Abyssinia in 1935, and Germany reoccupying the Rhineland in 1936. However, it was not until 1938 that they were taken seriously.

 

In terms of economic policy protectionism was the order of the day in the 1930’s and we now witness the Biden Administration continuing and amplifying Trump’s protectionist trade policies. Although Biden’s trade policies conflict, he remains a committed internationalist. However, the Republican Party is reverting to its 1930’s form with its America First withdrawal from the world.

 

At home America’s college campuses look like prewar Germany where in many cases it is no longer safe for Jews to walk freely to class. Although anti-Zionism has always been a cover for antisemitism, recent events have ripped off all of its pretentions of being anti-Israel while still liking Jews. Nevertheless, unlike the 1930’s, Jews in America have more to fear from the Left than from the Right when the Father Coughlin’s of the world ruled the airwaves.

 

Further unlike the 1930’s when America had real leadership under Franklin Roosevelt, today’s divided government is challenged by a Putinista faction in the Republican Party that is implicitly allied with the new axis of evil. Be warned the clock is ticking.

  

Saturday, June 25, 2022

My Review* of Caroline Woods' "The Lunar Housewife"

Cold War Fantasy: Part 2

 

About a year ago I reviewed “The Vixen” a novel about the CIA’s involvement in America’s literary scene in the early 1950’s and with Caroline Woods’ novel, here we go again.( Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Francine Prose's "The Vixen" ) I guess something is in the water. In this case we have Louise Leithauser, an aspiring novelist from very modest means, circulating among New York’s literary highbrows while working for a new magazine called “Downtown.” Her boss there is also her paramour, and he calls on her to interview Ernest Hemingway.

 

However, because of CIA influence on the publication her interview is edited by eliminating pro-Castro and anti-Batista comments. We also witness the CIA’s fingerprints all over the new magazine. So much so that we find out that the CIA is the key financial backer of the magazine. To be sure the CIA did set up front organizations in the 1950’s, but in the case of this novel, the implied criticism is over the top. Remember this was in the early days of the Cold War and Russia, just as it is today, was evil.

 

Interspersed in the dialogue is Louise’s own novel about a Russian space mission on the moon and much that happens on the moon overlaps with Louise’s life on earth.  Hence the title of the book. To me this makes the entire work disjointed.

 

I started out liking the novel, but as it went on, it grew tiresome. I would also note one anachronism where Louise and her lover take a jet to Rome in 1953. There was no jet service between New York and Rome in 1953.


*-Amazon has yet to post this review. At last here is the Amazon URL: Cold War Fantasy: Part 2 (amazon.com)

Thursday, February 24, 2022

The Unravelling

 

The world as we have known it for the past 30 years is over. The era of low inflation, ever-falling interest rates, ever-rising stock prices, globalization, and geopolitical stability among the major powers is unravelling. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has signaled that a new Cold War is upon us and making things worse was the Xi-Putin communique at the Beijing Olympics which marked the beginning of a renewed authoritarian alliance against the West. What this means is defense spending is going to ramp up bigtime with inflationary consequences.

 

The COVID pandemic has taught us that globalization and just-in-time inventory processes have made supply chains far more fragile than we had thought. As a result, higher buffer stocks and the moving of production closer to final demand will increase economy wide costs.  The inflationary process is being exacerbated by the rush to decarbonize the economy with its attendant underinvestment in oil and gas.  As they say, short term pain for long term gain. We are also relearning that reckless fiscal and monetary policies can bring about the high inflation we are now experiencing. It seems that Milton Friedman and his ideas about money are being resurrected from the dead.

 

Domestically there are too many eerie parallels to 1940 America where the Charles Lindberg America First group linked up with the Communist Party to oppose U.S. intervention in support of beleaguered England. Just the other day showboating lefties Alexandra Ocasio Cortez and Cori Bush linked up arm and arm with the right-wingers Paul Gosar and Matt Gaetz seeking Congressional preauthorization before sending troops in support to Ukraine, a move that President Biden said is off the table. And, of course, we have Tucker “Tokyo Rose” Carslon singing Putin’s praise every night on Fox.

 

This witch’s brew means inflation will remain higher for longer, a secular bear market for bonds, a very volatile stock market and as ugly as our politics are today, it will get worse.

 

Sunday, October 17, 2021

My Amazon Review of Fiona Hill's "There is Nothing for You Here"

Coal Miner’s Daughter

 

On November 21, 2019, Fiona Hill, a former National Security Council staffer in charge of European and Russian affairs, made headlines around the world with her explosive testimony at President Donald Trump’s first impeachment trial. I was prescient enough to review her coauthored book, “Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin” on July 19th.  ( Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy's " Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin" ) Although her biography touches on her experiences as a National Security Council staffer, Hill spends most of her time recounting her experiences of growing up in the northeast England coal mining town of Bishop Auckland and her overcoming sexism and classism in both England and the United States.

 

Her life experience in Bishop Auckland gave her great insights into the rise of rightwing populism in the U.S., England, and Russia. She witnessed firsthand in her family and her town the debilitating effects of the collapse of the coal mining industry. It helped her understand why previously Labour voters in England and Democratic voters in the U.S., supported Brexit and Trump, respectively. Further she understood how Putin built his political base among the industrial workers and miners in Russia’s declining cities. She clinically observes that instead of Russia becoming more like the United States, the United States is becoming more like Russia in seeking out authoritarian leadership as our political divisions deepen. The Russian intelligence services successfully exploited those divisions during the 2016 presidential election, but the divisions go so much worse that they didn’t have to lift a finger in 2020.

 

While Hill lived in a depressed community, her family was intellectually curious and encouraged her education.  She took her father’s advice when he told her, “There is nothing for you here.” In order to advance she had to overcome three very English questions (where are from, what does your father do, what school do you go to.) Further her northern England accent was a telltale sign of her lower-class origins. She overcomes it all graduating form Saint Andrews College and then goes on to a Ph.D. program at Harvard. She made her own breaks by meeting influential Americans as an interpreter during a Reagan-Gorbachev summit in Moscow which opens the way to Harvard. She is an almost pure example of baseball executive Branch Rickey’s aphorism, “luck is the residue of design.”

 

At Harvard she shines, but she was aided by an administrator who told her that torn jeans and a sweatshirt were not the appropriate attire for high-end Harvard seminars. She took her to T.J. Maxx and bought her more professional attire which opened the way to seminars with Professors Graham Allison and Richard Pipes.

 

From Harvard she goes onto posts at the National Intelligence Council and the Brookings Institution. At both places and at Harvard for that matter, she was grossly underpaid and that carried over to the National Security Council. At various meetings she was assumed to be either a tea lady, a secretary or while in Russia, a prostitute. Simply put, sexism at work.

 

In discussing Trump, she does not believe that the Russians had something on him. Instead, she views him as a person with a very fragile ego who has a deep admiration for authoritarian leader. Hence his bromance with Putin. She found that Trump had a complete lack of intellectual curiosity about foreign policy with the glaring exception of nuclear arms control.

 

Fiona Hill is a remarkable person who I highly admire. Nevertheless, I have a few quibbles with her book. She places much of the blame for the post-1980 industrial decline and the rise of rightwing populism on Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. The decline long preceded them. The coal industry has been in secular decline since World War II and the collapse of the great steel mills in Ohio’s Mahoning Valley occurred in 1977 when the Democrats controlled all of the power in Washington D.C. Hill mentions once that there were broad impersonal forces at work that led to deindustrialization, but she goes back to bashing Reagan and Thatcher. She also fails to note that across Europe parties of the right have been strengthened. (e.g., France, Hungary, and Poland)

 

She also believes that the polarization of American politics is due to economics. Although economics has a role to play, it is not surprising to see Americans living in the South and the middle of the country to resent a very haughty cultural elite on both coasts who look down on all too many Americans. I fear that the coal miner’s daughter may have joined that elite.

 

At the end of the book, she presents a host of policy prescriptions that come out of the Brookings think tank. Some are sensible, some are not, but I am especially critical of her support of place-based policies as opposed to people- based policies. Put bluntly some towns and cities deserve to die; it makes little sense to prop them up.

 

With these criticisms aside, Fiona Hill has written a remarkable autobiography. I am so glad we welcomed her into our country and that she has done so well.


For the full Amazon URL see: Coal Miner's Daughter (amazon.com)



Wednesday, August 25, 2021

My Amazon Review of Daniel Silva's "The Cellist"

 

Life in a Russian (money) Laundromat

 

As I write this there are 11,633 reviews for Danial Silva’s “The Cellist” posted on Amazon.  As a result, this review will be much shorter than usual. Silva writes a very fast-paced spy thriller led by his protagonist Gabriel Allon, the head of Israel’s secret intelligence service. The story opens with the assassination of a disaffected Russian oligarch in London by a nerve agent. We then find Allon teaming up with Isabel Brenner who works as a compliance officer at a very corrupt German bank that serves as a money laundromat for Putin and the Russian oligarchy. She is also a very talented cellist, hence the title.

 

Silva takes us into the innerworkings of money laundering and the use of Russian cyber warfare in inducing Americans to follow the violent leads of far rightwing sects which goes so far as assassination. Readers will get a very real sense as to how powerful the role of Russian money is in the West and how far Putin will go to achieve his ends. It is an easier read than many of the long articles on the subject in, say The Washington Post.


For the full Amazon Review see: Life in a Russian (money) Laundromat (amazon.com)