Ukraine Goes on the Offensive

 Shulmaven has been commenting on Russo-Ukraine War since 2014 when the Russian “green men” seized Crimea. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-ukraine-what-is-to-be-done.html ) The all-out Russian invasion began in February 2022 and if we date the war’s start to then, the Russo-Ukraine War is now longer than the fighting in World War I. Similar to World War I, the battlefield has been stalemated since the end of 2022 with a “no-man’s land” in the east separating the forces and on ongoing Russian drone/missile blitz on Ukrainian cities in the West.

 

However, of late, Ukraine has gone on the offensive with drone and missile attacks reaching into the heart of Russia. Both Moscow and St. Petersburg have witnessed the war coming home. More important, Ukraine has taken out more than 25% of Russia’s oil refining capacity triggering gasoline rationing that Putin was forced to admit last week.

 

Under severe wartime conditions Ukraine has built up the capacity to mass produce long range drones and missiles. What we are witnessing in Ukraine is a revolution in military affairs where ground forces have become immobilized by the fear of drone attacks and that swarms of low-cost drones can overcome Russia’s sophisticated air defenses. No region in European Russia is safe and perhaps we will soon see Ukraine set ablaze the west Siberian oilfields, a course I have long advocated.

 

Russia is now in a box. Instead of their once thought of inevitable victory, it is now slowly losing the war. Putin will have to accept this reality or attempt to widen the War into Poland or the Baltic states. His goal would be to force NATO into pressuring Ukraine to accept its demands. Of course, this high risk strategy could very well bring NATO directly into the war with unknowable consequences.

 

NATO is meeting in Ankara, Turkey next week. I am sure Ukraine will be a major topic of conversation. Given Ukraine’s battle-tested army and its advanced weapons production capabilities, it would seem to me that NATO needs Ukraine more than Ukraine needing NATO. It wouldn’t surprise me that while the meeting is in progress, Ukraine will launch its largest air assault on Russia to date.