With Iran rushing headlong towards nuclear weapons, last Friday Israel engaged in a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear programs and its leadership exactly one day after President Trump’s 60-day deadline for a negotiated settlement expired. Iran immediately counter-striked with a barrage of missiles on Israel’s population centers. Since then, the world has been watching successive Israeli air raids on Tehran and Iranian missile attacks on Israel.
To Israel this is a
war of necessity. Iran has promised to destroy Israel since the Ayatollahs came
to power in 1979. Over the years Iran built up its proxy fighters in Gaza, Syria,
Lebanon, and Yemen. However, with the destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the
removal of the Assad regime from power in Syria, and the degrading of Hamas in
Gaza, Israel, for the first time, had a free hand to strike Iran.
Israel’s goal is to eliminate
Iran’s capability to develop nuclear weapons. To that end it has decapitated
much of the program’s leadership and has degraded parts of its facilities.
However, Iran’s major uranium enrichment facility is buried 1500 feet below ground
at Fordow. It is not clear that Israel has the ability to take out Fordow,
which might require U.S bunker-busting bombs. If Fordow remains operational,
the war would be a failure.
As of this writing it
is unclear whether the U.S. will attack Fordow and risk a much wider war in the
middle east. Alternatively, if the U.S. does not act, the risk of a nuclear
Iran would be far greater. Absent Israel pulling a rabbit out of the hat, the
ball is in Trump’s court.
What happens at Fordow will determine the course of the war and that will not be televised. Without U.S. support can Israel use special forces in a very risky operation and/or taking out the above ground infrastructure (electric power, water, ventilation) by air that keeps Fordow operational remains to be seen. We know Israel has a presence on the ground in Iran, but it is likely inadequate to overcome the heavily guarded and forewarned Fordow site. Remember, Israel cannot conquer Iran, it is pursuing a limited goal of removing Iran’s nuclear capability and that has to be done quickly because Israel doesn’t have the resources for a long war.
Stay tuned.
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