The Night of the Long Knives Comes to Russia

 On the night of June 30, 1934, Hitler launched what was to be called the night of the long knives against Ernst Rohm the leader of the paramilitary SA brownshirts and other opponents of his regime.  In what appears to be happening in reverse in Russia is that Yevgeny Prigozhin the leader of the private army Wagner Group is launching a coup against Vladimir Putin.

 

Although the situation remains fluid, Prigozhin has seized Russian Army headquarters in Rostov on the Don and a convoy is barreling north to Moscow facing little or no opposition. The Wagner Group is the most battle-hardened military force in Russia, and it remains to be seen whether or not they will be opposed by regular troops in the Russian Army. However, the force will likely face opposition from the air and the troops under the control of the FSB security service.

 

In the meantime, Ukrainian forces will likely take advantage of Russia’s lack of command and control and the absence of Wagner Group soldiers to step up their offensive to retake their lost territories.  It is very possible that the Russian Army in Ukraine will soon collapse.

 

Outside of the Ukraine theatre Wagner is very active in Syria, Mali, and Venezuela.  What happens to Russian influence in those places is now an open question. As Lenin once remarked “there are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.”