Margin of Safety
· * A stock certificate is more than a piece of paper; it
represents an
ownership interest in a business.
· * Investments should only be undertaken with a
quantifiable margin of safety.
· * “Mr. Market” who on occasion is manic-depressive
allows you to express a view on a stock or a bond every day.
· * Despite all of your efforts at security analysis the
stock market is loosely efficient making it very difficult to outperform a
broad index. Investment success flows from a few very special situations.
· * Investors can be characterized as defensive or
enterprising, but even for the enterprising investor Graham’s rules are
designed to minimize losses through diversification and heeding to margin of
safety requirements.
As the classic value investor, much of Graham’s work
is focused on tangible book value. That metric worked well though the middle of
the 20th Century, but that kept Graham and his acolytes away from
growth companies who were powered by intangible capital. Thus, it was hard for
Graham to get comfortable with owning many of the growth stocks of his era, but
his discipline kept him away from the craziness of the bubbles that occurred in
1961 and in the late 1960’s. Jason
Zweig, the editor of this version discusses at the length the extremes of the
late 1990’s dot.com bubble.
Graham was fond of public utility shares in the early
1970’s because they traded a low price/earnings and price/book ratios.
Unfortunately, he did not foresee the debacle that cost over-runs in nuclear
power brought on to this sector. Zweig points this out. Also, Graham really
didn’t associate the rise in interest rates in the late 1960’s with the rise in
inflation. He characterized common stocks as inflation hedges, which in the long
run they are, but that is not necessarily true in the short run as rising
inflation propels interest rates higher and price/earnings ratios lower.
Then there is a short discussion on Graham’s
investment in Government Employees Insurance Co. (GEICO). There his partnership
broke his diversification rule by investing 25% of its capital in it for 50% of
the company. However, its valuation in terms of earnings and tangible equity
was very low. It was his best investment and Warren Buffett, his best-known
student, followed him into GEICO and as a result Berkshire Hathaway now owns
the entire company.
Although the book’s examples are dated, the investing
rules outlined here are timeless.
For the full Amazon URL see: Margin of Safety (amazon.com)
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