Stocks too Complacent About the TACO Trade

 Last week brought with it the International Trade Court opinion declaring Trump’s use of the Emergency Economic Powers Act declaring his reciprocal tariffs on all of America’s trading partners to be illegal, the arrival of the new acronym TACO and a breakdown in trade talks with China. Coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” That was brought home by Trump’s sudden pullback from his 50% tariff on the EU. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/05/debt-tariffs-and-stocks.html ) When Trump was asked about it at a White House event he reacted very defensively because the one thing a bully can’t stand is being called “chicken.”

While the trade court ruling is being appealed, the Trump team said it would use all of the other powers available to him, of which there are many, to maintain his high tariff wall. On Friday he acted by doubling the tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. That will work as a dagger in the heart of America’s steel and aluminum using industries, namely automobile, aircraft, and machinery. This certainly won’t help Boeing, America’s leading exporter, on its road to recovery. 

The steel and aluminum tariffs will further estrange Canada from the U.S. where its direct exports will be clobbered, and it will make Canadian manufactured autos and parts even more expensive. If Canada weren’t heading for a recession before, it is now.

 

My guess is that in the long run the TACO trade maybe right, but in the short run, Trump will keep tariffs much higher than the 10% the market now expects. Thus, when the 90 day pause on high tariffs rolls around on July 2^nd, a whole new round of high tariffs will be put in place. Just when investors thought it was safe to go back in the water, a dangerous riptide will be pulling away from the shore

Debt, Tariffs and Stocks

On Friday Donald “The Tariff Man” Trump struck again with his new 50% tariff on EU products scheduled to take effect on June 2^nd and a new 25% tariff on I-Phones.* (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/02/the-tariffman-strikes.html ) Earlier the House of Representatives passed its budget reconciliation bill that called for continuing the 2017 tax cuts plus further tax cuts along with spending cuts that would increase the national debt by about $3 trillion over the next ten years with the higher deficits front-loaded into the earlier years.

 

However, not counted in the budget calculations is the revenue coming from the tariffs. The current run rate is $250 billion/year, and a 10% universal tariff would yield in excess of $300 billion/year, which would totally offset the cumulative deficit of the reconciliation bill. Essentially Trump will be using tariffs to offset his tax cuts. Because there is little new stimulus in the tax bill and the drag from the tariffs is new, the economy will stall out. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-recession-of-2025.html )

 

Nevertheless, the bond market evidenced its unhappiness by sending the yield on 30-year U.S Treasuries over 5% for the first time since 2007. The bond bear market is in full force. ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/01/we-are-in-early-stages-of-bond-bear.html )                                                                                     Reflecting a run on U.S. assets, the dollar index declined 3% from just two weeks before and it stands 1% above its April low and down 11% from its January high.

 

Until last week stocks were enjoying a powerful 20% rally off the April lows. Even after last week’s decline, the S&P 500 was trading 22.3X the $260 earnings estimated for this year. That equates to an earnings yield of 4.48%, equal to the 4.51% yield on 10-year treasuries. Put simply, the equity risk premium has vanished.

 

A narrow equity premium might be justified if the economy were about to experience a growth spurt. On the contrary, we are now in the beginning of a stagflation era. Growth will be slow, and inflation will be higher than what we have been used to. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/04/regime-change-end-of-economy-as-we-have.html ) Thus, if anything, we will soon be entering and era of high rather than low equity premiums and the S&P 500 will plumb new lows before the year it out. 

*- Subsequent to this post Trump announced the deadline for the new 50% tariff on EU products was postponed to July 9th.  I guess someone in the White House read this blog. HaHaHa

Greece Needs Merkel's Tough Love

Whether Greece knows it or not, Angela Merkel has done Greece a great favor. Simply put Greece is incapable of reforming on its own. Let's face it, since Greece achieved its independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1832 it has hardly been a paragon of good government and economic growth. Left to its own devices Greece doesn't work.

What the EU has done under Merkel's leadership is force Greece to undertake the needed labor, pension, fiscal, taxation and market reforms that are necessary for economic growth. To be sure, in the short run Greece will go through economic hell, but remember leaving the Euro would bring with it a far more difficult hell. For those who argue that Greece should return to the Drachma, I have one simple question: where are the foreign exchange reserves to support a new currency. Tspras, to his credit, understood this fact.

Of course Merkel and the EU will have to relent on debt relief. The IMF is correct in its position that the current Greek debt situation is unsustainable. Although the EU will not or cannot grant a direct haircut to Greece's debt, it is in their power to restructure Greece's debt burden by lowering interest rates and extending maturities which would be the equivalent of a direct haircut.

Greece has stepped up to the plate by accepting the EU bailout conditions, it is now up to to the EU to move on debt relief. If it all works out in 20 years Greece will build a statue to Angela Merkel in Syntagma Square.