Regime Change: The End of the Economy as we have Known it

 “There are decades where nothing happens: and there are weeks where decades happen.”

                       Attributed to V. I. Lenin

In the short span of twelve weeks, Donald Trump has undone the Bretton Woods monetary order established in 1944, the GATT free trade order of 1947, and the NATO collective security order of 1949. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2018/02/my-amazon-review-of-benn-steils-marshal.html) As a result the world is now facing a simultaneous geopolitical and economic crisis and it is no surprise,  that stocks and especially treasury bonds and the dollar have sold off. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/04/a-broken-stock-market-and-broken-trust.html) Simply put, the old world order is gone, an there is nothing, as of yet, to replace it. The transition will be painful.

Those who expect that the Trump tariffs are negotiating tactic will be sorely disappointed. Trump needs the revenue to finance his tax cuts, and the Democrats only differ with Trump as to the way his policy has been conducted. They still hope to reclaim their union support by being pro-tariff and they too need the revenue to finance an ever-larger welfare state. The era of free trade, as we have known it, is over.

Three years ago, I wrote that the United States was about to enter a new 13-year economic cycle. I noted:

“My guess is that we are at the very beginning of new thirteen-year cycle with unknown consequences. I would speculate that the next thirteen years will bring with it a much higher rate of inflation than we have been used to, a multi-year bond bear market and a partial deglobalization of the economy caused by local politics, supply chain issues and geopolitical tensions. To me the big question is whether this cycle will bring with it a stagflation or a high cap-ex/high inflation economy with a cap-ex boom coming from the in-shoring production and energy transition. As they say, time will tell.” ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2022/05/the-useconomy-is-entering-new-thirteen.html)  

Although it has taken a bit longer to play out, we are now in the midst of it and perhaps something much more. We are likely entering an eighty-year super cycle in what Neil Howe has called a “fourth turning” which will involve economics, politics, values, and the way we relate to each other in society. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2023/09/my-review-of-neil-howes-fourth-turning.html)  This is far bigger than my 13-year cycle in that it encompasses six 13-year cycles that began in, not coincidentally 1945.

If this is close to correct, then we are now entering unchartered waters. The stock market and economic histories that we have been used to over the past 80 years may no longer be relevant in understanding the future. Instead of ever rising share prices we may now be in an era where stocks go sideways for an extended period of time. I would note that between 1924-1949 the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in a range of between 100-200 with the significant upside exception of 1928-30 and the significant downside exception of 1931-1933. For example, in 1927 the high in the Dow was 201 and which was nearly identical to that recorded in 1949 and the 1929 high was not exceeded until 1954. The equivalent going forward would be for the S&P 500 to trade in a broad 3500-6500 trading range over the next several years.

The recent action of the bond, currency and stock market is indicative of a sea change in the markets. Instead of rallying in a time of turmoil both the treasury bonds and the U.S. Dollar have sold off. Indeed, the dollar has declined 9% since the end of February. Simply put foreigners are losing trust in the U.S. Dollar and with 18% of U.S. stocks held by foreigners the selling is only now beginning. I would say the same thing for foreign holdings of U.S. real estate.

Over the weekend the Trump Administration announced that it would reduce the Chinese tariff of 145% to 20% on smart phones, computers, and other electronic products. That action has lifted the Sword of Damocles hanging over Apple. This suggests a major relief rally for Apple and the stock market as a whole, but what multiple can you put on company and the stock market as whole whose share prices are subject to the whim of one very unstable man? I would sell the rally.