A Broken Stock Market and Broken Trust

 The headline read:

“Selling Swamps Exchange

Leading Issues Tumble

As Wall Street Assails

The New Tariff”

This is not from yesterday; it is from the front page of The New York Times dated June 17, 1930. The day before President Hoover announced he would sign the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill and stocks responded with an 8% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Responding to President Trump’s tariff announcement the S&P 500 declined by 9% last week, wiping out $6 trillion in market value. Simply put, just as in 1930, high tariffs are poison for the global economy. And to add insult to injury, the Trump tariffs are higher than Smoot Hawley.

My sense is that the decline in stock prices is not over. In the week leading up the October 19th,1987 20+% crash in stock prices, the S&P 500 witnessed a similar 9% decline. As we wrote last month, we believe that the recession of 2025 has now begun. ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-recession-of-2025.html) In response to the tariff announcement and the wealth destruction that it caused, consumption and investment are freezing up and as a result of the DOGE cuts, government spending is heading lower. The recession is baked in the cake.

Adding to the unease is that in less than three months the Trump Administration has broken the trust in America with respect to our military alliances and our reliability as a trading partner. What has taken decades to build up has been destroyed in a few months. Further, even if Trump tries to repair the damage, his administration is staffed by D and F players who are incapable of playing on the global stage. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, trade advisor Peter Navarro and Economic Council Director Kevin Hastett hardly inspire confidence. 

Although Scott Bessent is potentially a B or an A player, he was, according to Bloomberg News, not in the room when the tariff schedule was decided upon. Indeed, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has proved himself to be so much of a Trump sycophant that would be incapable of healing the breach with our allies and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is clueless.

This is a far cry from the team Nixon had when he broke the dollar’s link to gold and devalued it. Nixon had Secretary of State William Rogers and Secretary of the Treasury John Connally, neither of whom were A players. In the background, however, were National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger and Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs Paul Volcker. ( See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2021/07/my-amazon-review-of-jeffrey-gartens.html) During the 1987 stock market crash Ronald Reagan was guided by the expert advice of George Schultz and James Baker, both consummate A players. Thirty years later George W. Bush had the steadying hand of Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson during the financial crisis of 2008 and Obama benefitted from the advice of Tim Geithner his treasury secretary.

As a result. It is hard to see how we are going to get out of this mess with minimum damage. The easier way would be for Trump to take that advice of former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein. He tweeted the other day:

Lloyd Blankfein

@lloydblankfein

“The switchboard at the WH must be burning up with gov’ts trying to surrender in this trade war. Why not give them a chance? Make the 10pct min tariff immediate but defer the “reciprocal” part 6 mos. Take the win! The Prez said he’d make us tired of winning…I’m there “

That would certainly give the markets some breathing space. The much harder way is for the Republicans in Congress to become so fearful of the midterm elections that they break with him on the tariff issue. To get there will require a lot of carnage in the markets. Similarly, a court action to declare Trump’s actions illegal will take time.

Finally, we have to remember that the Trump Administration needs the revenue from the tariffs to fund its tax cuts and to protect American industry.  A 10% tariff would raise $300 billion/year and a 20% tariff $600 billion/year. Tariffs aren’t going away. So, my guess is that when the markets open tomorrow, it won’t be pretty.