My Review* of Benny Morris' "Sidney Reilly: Master Spy"

 Ace of Spies**

 

Israeli historian Benny Morris searched the official files of Britain’s MI-6 and Russia’s KGB (now FSB) and numerous other sources to produce a credible biography of Sidney Reilly, perhaps the foremost spy of the early 20^th Century. Born Sigmund Rosenblum in the early 1870’s either in Ukraine or Poland and by 1899 Rosenblum, under the auspices of Scotland Yard, becomes Sidney Reilly. From there he becomes the stuff of legends admired by James Bond’s Ian Flemming and the subject of a 1983 Thames TV (and shown on PBS) series starring Sam Neill.

 

Reilly turns up in Port Arthur at the time of the Japanese attack on the Russian navy in 1905 and in 1911 he is in Persia to facilitate the British takeover of their oil fields giving Britain control of the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, later British Petroleum.

 

His most famous escapade was being the key instigator of the Lockhart plot, where he and the British representative Robert Lockhart in the pay of MI-6 attempt to overthrow the Bolshevik government of Lenin and Trotsky. Their plot is foiled by the Cheka and both of them escape by the skin of their teeth. Thereafter we see Reilly at the Paris Peace Conference. Reilly returns to Russia to provide intelligence on the southern front where he accurately predicts the fall of the White armies. Unable to stay away from Russia Reilly is lured back to Russia in 1925 by the Cheka and it is there where he meets his ultimate demise.

 

Along the way we see Reilly as a successful businessman, arms dealer and bon vivant around town. He spends money as fast as he makes it and has numerous and sometimes simultaneous affairs. If a anything he makes the fictional James Bond look celibate.

 

Reilly is in the middle of world-shaking events, and he was for many years under the control of MI-6’s Mansfield Cumming, known as “C” and the model for Flemming’s “M”. He meets Churchill and works with the infamous arms dealer Basil Zaharoff.

 

Because this book is part of Yale’s Jewish Lives series Morris notes Reilly’s near complete withdrawal from the Judaism of his family and also how he suffers from the antisemitism of upper-class Britain. Despite his new name, most understood him to be Jewish. My one real criticism of the book is that it bogs down at times, and it becomes too academic. Nevertheless, it encouraged me to rewatch the “Ace of Spies” series on demand.

* Amazon has yet to post this review. It finally posted on Amazon.

Ace of Spies* (amazon.com)

**With apologies to Robin Bruce Lockhart

Will the Russian Army Mutiny in Ukraine?

Winter has come to Ukraine; it snowed in Kyiv last week. Although it hasn't happened in a long time the Russian army mutinied in 1905-06 and again in 1917 in what were revolutionary situations. I was at a dinner party last week with people far more knowledgeable than me where I threw out the idea that the Russian army will soon mutiny. The interesting thing is that my idea was not dismissed out of hand and we had a short, but serious discussion.

My logic is that with the Russian army taking a beating, the newly arrived draftees are not going be happy campers freezing in the mud of eastern Ukraine. Their situation is a far cry from the comforts of Moscow and even that of the Russian hinterlands to the east. More important, they do not know what they are fighting for and many of them don't see any logic in fighting their former countrymen. Thus, to me, the Russian army is tinderbox ready to explode. All it needs is a spark.

My Amazon Review of Jon Hilsenrath's "Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist....."

Always Prepared

Wall Street Journal economics reporter Jon Hilsenrath has written a deservedly hagiographic biography of Janet Yellen, perhaps the most consequential economic policy official of the past twenty-five years. Yellen is the only person in history to have served in all three top economic policy posts of our Nation, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors (under Clinton), Chair of the Federal Reserve Board (Under Obama) and Secretary of the Treasury (under Biden). Along the way she was President of the San Francisco Fed. Hilsenrath’s book is written along three strands: a biography of Yellen, a love story between her and her fully supportive husband Nobel Laureate economist George Akerlof, and a history of the macroeconomic policy debates from the 1960’s to the present.

 

Born into a 1946 Jewish middle class family in Brooklyn where education was the highest priority, Yellen excelled in school. She was always well prepared and from the vantage point of this less than stellar kid from adjacent Queens you might say she was a “goody two shoes.” She went on Brown University and then on to an economic Ph.D. from Yale under the very distinguished Keynesian economist, James Tobin. Harvard hired her, but ultimately did not give her tenure. Too bad for Harvard.

 

Yellen then goes on to work for the Fed in Washington, D.C. There she meets her husband to be in that well known singles meet-up place, the Fed cafeteria. It was almost love at first site and they were very sympatico with their soon to become New Keynesian outlook. You could call title it, “nerds in love.”

 

After leaving Washington, D.C. the couple ends up teaching at UC Berkeley in the 1980’s. Before too long with her growing acclaim as a labor economist, Yellen is appointed to the Federal Reserve Board in 1994. It was there where I met her at the infamous Fed consultants meeting in late 1996 on the roaring bull market in stock prices. Although our conversation was brief, I found her to be a kind, friendly and caring person. Those three attributes come though in Hilsenrath’s writing. 

 

In 2004 she was named President of the San Francisco Fed and from that vantage point she warned of the growing housing bubble that would soon almost take down the entire economy. From there she moved back to the Federal Reserve Board and in 2013 became its Chair where she became a strong advocate of bringing down unemployment. To her the unemployment rate was not a statistic, but rather represents real people struggling in life. However, with the arrival of Trump, unlike Greenspan and Bernanke, she was not reappointed. I guess a five-foot grey-haired woman was not what Trump had in mind to be Fed chair.

 

Biden, on the other hand, leaped at the chance to appoint her as his Secretary of the Treasury. Just as in her role as CEA chair Yellen was uncomfortable be in a political role as Secretary of the Treasury. She went along with the $1.7 trillion rescue plan, despite misgivings, but still she underestimated the inflationary fires that were being kindled underneath the economy. Thus, part of her legacy will be the path of inflation over the next few years.

 

There is far more to Hilsenrath’s wonderful tribute to Yellen. Indeed, Yellen has paved the way for female economists in the 21^st Century, a notable accomplishment.  One more thing, I commented on Yellen on several occasions in my Shulmaven blog including one where I noted that she was not the fairy godmother for the stock market.(See:Shulmaven: Yellen, Yellen You Got Tapering on Your Mind*, Shulmaven: Two History Lessons for Janet Yellen, Shulmaven: Memo to the Stock Market: Janet Yellen is not Your Fairy Godmother ) When I presented it, I pictured her with in a fairy godmother outfit with a magic wand in her hand. In her own way Janet Yellen always had a magic wand in her hand.

For the full Amazon URL see: Always Prepared (amazon.com)

Shulmaven Quoted in Nick Sargen article in "The Hill" on the Midterms

 " 2022 midterm message: Voters want normal, not crazy"

"According to economist David Shulman, the Democrats remembered the lessons of 2009, when the $800 billion fiscal package enacted was woefully lacking in dealing with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). However, they failed to recognize that the pandemic was a completely different type of shock: While the economy plummeted when businesses were shuttered, it rebounded quickly when businesses re-opened. Consequently, they wound up fighting the last fiscal war by enacting programs that were four times larger. Together with a highly expansionary monetary policy, the seeds for a resurgence of inflation were sown."

The 2022 midterm message: Voters want normal, not crazy | The Hill

After Action Report on the 2022 Elections

Although all of the results are not in, it now seems obvious that it was a good night for the Democrats, Ron DeSantis, Liz Cheney, and New York State nonpartisan reapportionment (four Republican pick-ups from prior gerrymandered map), and it was a bad night for Donald Trump, election deniers and Shulmaven. Frankly we blew it in over-estimating Republican gains. We were looking for a gain of 25 seats, while as of this five minutes it looks more like a gain of 10 seats or so. The abortion and election denial issues swamped the economy has an issue. I also missed that both Oklahoma and Oregon governorships would stay true their Red and Blue forms. Nevertheless, save for Fetterman in Pennsylvania, I got all of the called Senate races correct, but I can still be wrong in both Arizona and Nevada, but I was correct in calling for a run-off in Georgia

Liz Cheney had a very good night with the two Democratic candidates she endorsed winning. Our country will benefit  from the presense of both Elisa Slotkin and Abigail Spanberger in the House. It remains to be seen whether her endorsement of  Katie Hobbs comes through in Arizona against Kari Lake.  Speaking of Lake, thus far election deniers have yet to be seen in this cycle.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis beat his opponent by a nearly 3-2 margin. In my opinion that makes hm a favorite to dethrone Trump from leadership in the Republican Party. Further the Nation and especially California, Nevada and Arizona can learn a lesson from Forida in that the state counted seven million votes in three hours.

With Kentucky turning down an anti-abortion ammendment to its constitution it now appears that future outright bans on the proceedure will fail and that many states will follow DeSantis' lead with a 15 week ban with exceptions. 

As far as governing goes, GOP leader Kevin McCarthy will have his hands full in running his presumed narrow majority in the House. It isn't even clear that his caucus will now pick him to be Speaker and if he is picked, whether or not he will last two years. 

2022 Elections: A Reversal of Fortune (Republicans Retake the House and Senate)

I have been writing up my election predictions every two years since 2014 and for the most part I have been pretty accurate. (See for example: Shulmaven: 2020 Elections: A Good Night for Biden and the Democrats, a Bad Night for Trump) My best guess is that this year will bring with it a reversal of fortune with the Republicans, deservedly or not, taking back both the House and  the Senate. Simply put, the Democrats are running against the headwind of a 40-year high in inflation that has crushed real incomes with no real remedies. They seem to spend more time cowtowing to the woke Left, than talking about kitchen table issues. Moreover, the Democrats have not been discussing growing public fears about rising violent crime rates. By forgetting that public safety is a civil liberties issue, they will pay a severe price at the polls. 

 

Further they over-played the abortion issue. Most Americans believe in reproductive choice, but by emphasizing abortion over and over the Democrats turned the party away from choice and towards abortion. I know this is a semantic issue, but many Americans find abortion, though necessary in many cases, repugnant. Thus, high inflation, rising crime and over-playing the abortion issue will likely overcome how authoritarian and batshit crazy most of the Republican Party has become. Sad, but true.

 

Although most public polls find the race for the House close, both parties are acting by where they are spending money as if the Republicans have a much wider lead than indicated. Thus, it now looks like the Republicans will pick up about 25 seats and end up with a 237-198 majority.

 

The Senate races are even closer, again according to the public polls. My sense is that the Republicans will retake the Senate with 51 or 52 seats. I would also point out we won’t know the results of the Warnock-Walker race in Georgia until December because of a likely run-off. I have the Republicans holding on in Wisconsin, Ohio, Oz beating Fetterman in Pennsylvania and flipping Nevada as Latino voters leave the Democratic Party with Lexalt beating Cortez Masto. Although surprisingly close I have the Democrats holding on to their seats in New Hampshire, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado. If Senator Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire loses to Trumpy Don Bolduc, it will be very long night for the Democrats and rebuke to Chuck Schumer’s cynicism in backing the Maga-Republican in the primary. One more thing, given President Biden’s comments on coal last night, I think Democrat Joe Manchin will switch parties if the Republicans end up controlling the Senate.

 

In hotly contested Georgia Brian Kemp will beat Stacey Abrams by a far bigger majority than four years ago. In what I consider two special governor’s races I see Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister beating incumbent Republican Kevin Sitt in ruby red Oklahoma and Republican Christine Drazan beating Democrat Tina Kotek in true-blue Oregon. If this comes to pass it would be a healthy development in American politics. What won’t be a healthy development will be super-Maga Kari Lake winning the Arizona governor’s race.

 

Although I am not predicting, if I received reasonable odds or points, I would bet on Republican Lee Zeldin upsetting Democrat Kathy Hochul in New York, Republican Mark Ronchetti beating incumbent Lujan-Grisham in New Mexico, Rick Caruso beating Karen Bass in the non-partisan Los Angeles mayor’s race and independent Evan McMullin beating incumbent Republican Mike Lee in Utah. As they say in poker, read’em and weep.

 

 

My Amazon Review of J. Bradford DeLong's "Slouching Toward Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century"

The Long Twentieth Century 

U.C. Berkeley economics professor and former Clinton treasury official Brad DeLong has written a narrative economic history of the long twentieth century which he argues began in 1870 and ended in 2010 with the great financial crisis. It was during this time that economic growth exploded and humanity, for the most part, escaped the Malthusian trap. Along with rising living standards the long twentieth century brought with it industrial strength destruction and environmental degradation. He attributes this to the rise of the giant corporation, the industrial research laboratory and globalization. However this book differs from Robert Gordon’s “The Rise and Fall of American Growth” (Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Robert J. Gordon's "The Rise and Fall of American Growth") in that DeLong covers far more than technological developments.

 

DeLong frames his argument over the differences between the views of Friedrich von Hayek and Karl Polanyi. DeLong characterizes Hayek as believing “the market giveth and the market taketh away, blessed be the name of the market” and Polanyi’s view that the market is made for man, not the other way around. A long time ago I had an economics professor who would open each class by invoking the blessing of the market and he was a liberal Democrat.  DeLong’s utopia represents a merger between Hayek and Polanyi that ends up with a social democratic version of Keynesian economics.  What he is vague about is that when he discusses the notion of Polanyian rights, which amount to the belief that citizens are entitled to a host of economic benefits, earned and unearned with no real limiting factors. DeLong is a fan the European entitlement state, but he fails to mention that most of the entitlements are funded by regressive payroll and value added taxes that would be a very rough sale in America.

 

Where the book is good, he has excellent vignettes on the lives of real people who were making history such as Nikola Tesla and Leon Trotsky. He also goes into the horrors of “really existing socialism” in both its Russian and Chinese forms. In that sense DeLong is a true social democrat. He is also very good in discussing how the 1970’s inflation undid the Keynesian consensus and led to the neo-liberal order which then collapses as deregulated financial markets were consumed by a fire of their own making.

 

What DeLong leaves out is that much scientific progress came outside of the organized industrial laboratories. He gives no credit to governmental and university labs, and he leaves out the garage work of Bill Hewlett and David Packard, Bill Gates, and Steve Jobs. These folks were tinkerers in the tradition of the early Thomas Edison. Further for some reason he leaves out of his discussion the role of the oil industry whose products fueled the mobility of his long twentieth century. Without the oil industry little of what he discussed would have occurred.

 

DeLong has written an excellent narrative history of our era; just take his politics with a few grains of salt.

For the full Amazon URL see: The Long Twentieth Century (amazon.com)