Thursday, November 10, 2022

After Action Report on the 2022 Elections

Although all of the results are not in, it now seems obvious that it was a good night for the Democrats, Ron DeSantis, Liz Cheney, and New York State nonpartisan reapportionment (four Republican pick-ups from prior gerrymandered map), and it was a bad night for Donald Trump, election deniers and Shulmaven. Frankly we blew it in over-estimating Republican gains. We were looking for a gain of 25 seats, while as of this five minutes it looks more like a gain of 10 seats or so. The abortion and election denial issues swamped the economy has an issue. I also missed that both Oklahoma and Oregon governorships would stay true their Red and Blue forms. Nevertheless, save for Fetterman in Pennsylvania, I got all of the called Senate races correct, but I can still be wrong in both Arizona and Nevada, but I was correct in calling for a run-off in Georgia

Liz Cheney had a very good night with the two Democratic candidates she endorsed winning. Our country will benefit  from the presense of both Elisa Slotkin and Abigail Spanberger in the House. It remains to be seen whether her endorsement of  Katie Hobbs comes through in Arizona against Kari Lake.  Speaking of Lake, thus far election deniers have yet to be seen in this cycle.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis beat his opponent by a nearly 3-2 margin. In my opinion that makes hm a favorite to dethrone Trump from leadership in the Republican Party. Further the Nation and especially California, Nevada and Arizona can learn a lesson from Forida in that the state counted seven million votes in three hours.

With Kentucky turning down an anti-abortion ammendment to its constitution it now appears that future outright bans on the proceedure will fail and that many states will follow DeSantis' lead with a 15 week ban with exceptions. 

As far as governing goes, GOP leader Kevin McCarthy will have his hands full in running his presumed narrow majority in the House. It isn't even clear that his caucus will now pick him to be Speaker and if he is picked, whether or not he will last two years. 


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