Winter has come to Ukraine; it snowed in Kyiv last week. Although it hasn't happened in a long time the Russian army mutinied in 1905-06 and again in 1917 in what were revolutionary situations. I was at a dinner party last week with people far more knowledgeable than me where I threw out the idea that the Russian army will soon mutiny. The interesting thing is that my idea was not dismissed out of hand and we had a short, but serious discussion.
My logic is that with the Russian army taking a beating, the newly arrived draftees are not going be happy campers freezing in the mud of eastern Ukraine. Their situation is a far cry from the comforts of Moscow and even that of the Russian hinterlands to the east. More important, they do not know what they are fighting for and many of them don't see any logic in fighting their former countrymen. Thus, to me, the Russian army is tinderbox ready to explode. All it needs is a spark.
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