I have been writing up my election predictions every two years since 2014 and for the most part I have been pretty accurate. (See for example: Shulmaven: 2020 Elections: A Good Night for Biden and the Democrats, a Bad Night for Trump) My best guess is that this year will bring with it a reversal of fortune with the Republicans, deservedly or not, taking back both the House and the Senate. Simply put, the Democrats are running against the headwind of a 40-year high in inflation that has crushed real incomes with no real remedies. They seem to spend more time cowtowing to the woke Left, than talking about kitchen table issues. Moreover, the Democrats have not been discussing growing public fears about rising violent crime rates. By forgetting that public safety is a civil liberties issue, they will pay a severe price at the polls.
Further they over-played the abortion issue. Most
Americans believe in reproductive choice, but by emphasizing abortion over and
over the Democrats turned the party away from choice and towards abortion. I
know this is a semantic issue, but many Americans find abortion, though
necessary in many cases, repugnant. Thus, high inflation, rising crime and
over-playing the abortion issue will likely overcome how authoritarian and
batshit crazy most of the Republican Party has become. Sad, but true.
Although most public polls find the race for the House
close, both parties are acting by where they are spending money as if the
Republicans have a much wider lead than indicated. Thus, it now looks like the
Republicans will pick up about 25 seats and end up with a 237-198 majority.
The Senate races are even closer, again according to
the public polls. My sense is that the Republicans will retake the Senate with
51 or 52 seats. I would also point out we won’t know the results of the
Warnock-Walker race in Georgia until December because of a likely run-off. I
have the Republicans holding on in Wisconsin, Ohio, Oz beating Fetterman in
Pennsylvania and flipping Nevada as Latino voters leave the Democratic Party with
Lexalt beating Cortez Masto. Although surprisingly close I have the Democrats
holding on to their seats in New Hampshire, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado.
If Senator Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire loses to Trumpy Don Bolduc, it will
be very long night for the Democrats and rebuke to Chuck Schumer’s cynicism in
backing the Maga-Republican in the primary. One more thing, given President
Biden’s comments on coal last night, I think Democrat Joe Manchin will switch
parties if the Republicans end up controlling the Senate.
In hotly contested Georgia Brian Kemp will beat Stacey
Abrams by a far bigger majority than four years ago. In what I consider two
special governor’s races I see Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister
beating incumbent Republican Kevin Sitt in ruby red Oklahoma and Republican
Christine Drazan beating Democrat Tina Kotek in true-blue Oregon. If this comes
to pass it would be a healthy development in American politics. What won’t be a
healthy development will be super-Maga Kari Lake winning the Arizona governor’s
race.
Although I am not predicting, if I received reasonable
odds or points, I would bet on Republican Lee Zeldin upsetting Democrat Kathy
Hochul in New York, Republican Mark Ronchetti beating incumbent Lujan-Grisham
in New Mexico, Rick Caruso beating Karen Bass in the non-partisan Los Angeles
mayor’s race and independent Evan McMullin beating incumbent Republican Mike Lee
in Utah. As they say in poker, read’em and weep.
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