The Democrats Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

The way I see it the Democrats won the political battle over the government shutdown, but as soon as they attacked the deal they committed an unforced error and gave Trump and the Republicans a victory.  Instead of looking like winners the Democrats became losers. How so? With the shut down the Democrats proved they were no longer comatose and were ready to fight Trump and that stance along with Trump voter buyer's remorse set the stage for huge victories in the off-year election.

On the governing side the Democrats achieved robust funding for the SNAP program, the rehiring of riffed workers during the shutdown and were guaranteed a vote on the Obama Care subsidies in December. The Dems have made short shrift of the pledge for a vote on the subsidies. but here they are wrong. The vote will place the Republicans at the horns of a dilemma. If they do nothing, the Dems will have the perfect issue for the mid-terms and if the Republicans compromise with a lower income limit and a minimum premium the Democrats would have achieved their major goal policy goal for the shutdown. The Dems win either way.

Thus, instead of vilifying the eight Democrats who broke the filibuster, they should in turn, commend them for their political savvy and common sense. Sometimes, in politics, you have to know when to take a win.  

Havana on the Hudson - Part 2

The Democrats had a great election night winning in New Jersey, Virginia, California, Pennsylvania and Georgia; Donald Trump and the Republicans had a terrible night as voters, especially Latinos, suffered from buyers’ remorse over their votes in 2024; and New York City, especially its large Jewish community, had a horrible night with the election Zohran Mamdani, the antisemitic socialist as mayor. With Mamdani’s plans to build socialism in New York, the city is now further down the road to becoming Havana on the Hudson. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/06/havana-on-hudson.html )

 

Mamdani plans called for a rent freeze, a massive public housing program, free childcare, free buses, city owned grocery stores, handcuffing the police, $30/hour minimum wage, and much higher taxes on businesses and high-income New Yorkers. For much of this he needs legislative action from Albany. Although most believe that action will not be forthcoming, you can’t count on the wimpy Democrats on holding firm against him. They could very well cave.

 

Mamdani’s program more than anything else is focused on reducing New York’s high rents. Building more apartments will certainly help, but that will not bring relief in the short run, and a rent freeze will actually raise rents on city’s non-rent-controlled apartments. Indeed, the only way Mamdani could lower rents would be for the city to return to hellhole it was in the 1970’s with crime running rampant. Although Mamdani said he would reappoint Jessica Tisch, the highly regarded police commissioner, they have yet to speak and one wonders what Tisch’s conditions would be for her to stay. In a straw in the wind Fire Commissioner Robert Tucker resigned today over Mamdani’s severe anti-Israel stance.

 

For those Jews who are complacent about Mamdani, I would warn them the Mamdani is anti-Israel to his core. Anti-Zionism is what got him into politics in the first place. My question is with Mamdani as mayor, who will protect the Jewish community from street and subway attacks and the defacement of synagogues which actually started last night?

 

Mamdani is no joke, this TikTok Jacobin will have real power and for those with the means it might just make sense to leave the city before it is too late.

2022 Elections: A Reversal of Fortune (Republicans Retake the House and Senate)

I have been writing up my election predictions every two years since 2014 and for the most part I have been pretty accurate. (See for example: Shulmaven: 2020 Elections: A Good Night for Biden and the Democrats, a Bad Night for Trump) My best guess is that this year will bring with it a reversal of fortune with the Republicans, deservedly or not, taking back both the House and  the Senate. Simply put, the Democrats are running against the headwind of a 40-year high in inflation that has crushed real incomes with no real remedies. They seem to spend more time cowtowing to the woke Left, than talking about kitchen table issues. Moreover, the Democrats have not been discussing growing public fears about rising violent crime rates. By forgetting that public safety is a civil liberties issue, they will pay a severe price at the polls. 

 

Further they over-played the abortion issue. Most Americans believe in reproductive choice, but by emphasizing abortion over and over the Democrats turned the party away from choice and towards abortion. I know this is a semantic issue, but many Americans find abortion, though necessary in many cases, repugnant. Thus, high inflation, rising crime and over-playing the abortion issue will likely overcome how authoritarian and batshit crazy most of the Republican Party has become. Sad, but true.

 

Although most public polls find the race for the House close, both parties are acting by where they are spending money as if the Republicans have a much wider lead than indicated. Thus, it now looks like the Republicans will pick up about 25 seats and end up with a 237-198 majority.

 

The Senate races are even closer, again according to the public polls. My sense is that the Republicans will retake the Senate with 51 or 52 seats. I would also point out we won’t know the results of the Warnock-Walker race in Georgia until December because of a likely run-off. I have the Republicans holding on in Wisconsin, Ohio, Oz beating Fetterman in Pennsylvania and flipping Nevada as Latino voters leave the Democratic Party with Lexalt beating Cortez Masto. Although surprisingly close I have the Democrats holding on to their seats in New Hampshire, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado. If Senator Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire loses to Trumpy Don Bolduc, it will be very long night for the Democrats and rebuke to Chuck Schumer’s cynicism in backing the Maga-Republican in the primary. One more thing, given President Biden’s comments on coal last night, I think Democrat Joe Manchin will switch parties if the Republicans end up controlling the Senate.

 

In hotly contested Georgia Brian Kemp will beat Stacey Abrams by a far bigger majority than four years ago. In what I consider two special governor’s races I see Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister beating incumbent Republican Kevin Sitt in ruby red Oklahoma and Republican Christine Drazan beating Democrat Tina Kotek in true-blue Oregon. If this comes to pass it would be a healthy development in American politics. What won’t be a healthy development will be super-Maga Kari Lake winning the Arizona governor’s race.

 

Although I am not predicting, if I received reasonable odds or points, I would bet on Republican Lee Zeldin upsetting Democrat Kathy Hochul in New York, Republican Mark Ronchetti beating incumbent Lujan-Grisham in New Mexico, Rick Caruso beating Karen Bass in the non-partisan Los Angeles mayor’s race and independent Evan McMullin beating incumbent Republican Mike Lee in Utah. As they say in poker, read’em and weep.

 

 

When Will the Democrats Ever Learn*

 

From Virginia to New Jersey to Long Island to Minneapolis to Seattle the Democrats got shellacked in Tuesday’s voting. They forgot that America is primarily a centrist country and that they only have bare majorities in the House and Senate. Simply put, even as I write this, they are over-reaching in their attempts to pass the Build Back Better reconciliation bill in the House. They do not understand that you cannot rewrite America’s social contract with bare majorities; they need the majorities that FDR and LBJ put together in 1933 and 1964, respectively. Further Biden was elected to stop the craziness of Trump, not to usher in an overarching expansion of the welfare state. (See my Open Letter to President Biden Shulmaven: An Open Letter to President Joe Biden)

 

On a more local level the Democrats have forgotten the role of engaged parents in the education of their children. Although technically Critical Race Theory was not taught in Virginia’s schools, many of the aspects of the theory are being taught. It is obvious if you accuse all white people of being inherently racist, perhaps more than a few would be turned away and that is precisely what happened in Virginia. And it is understood that “defund the police” is an absolute loser.

 

If the Democrats are going to have a chance to hold their slender majorities in Congress next year, they are going to have to abandon the crazy town ideas of the “woke” left. The Squad and their acolytes live in very insular worlds. If they ever ventured out into the real world, they would realize how off-putting their ideas are. As long as Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer cozy up to them, the Democrats will be in a world of hurt in 2022. Better they should heed the words of Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.

*With apologies to Pete Seeger

 

The Democratic Debates: From Circular Firing Squad to Mutual Suicide Pact

I originally thought that the Democratic debates we witnessed last week would turn out to be a circular firing squad where each candidate would be in the attack mode; instead it turned out to be a mutual suicide pact. All you have to do is look at how most of the candidates took positions way out of the mainstream.

Although Medicare for All has the sound of a winning issue, in fact it is a loser once people realize that it would be the end of private health insurance for 150 million Americans and that a majority of all of the hospitals in the U.S. would go bankrupt because of the inadequacy of Medicare’s reimbursement rates. In a way the Democrats are sounding like Republicans in the sense that they want to “repeal and replace Obamacare.”

With respect to immigration the entire field came out for healthcare for unauthorized immigrants and most supported decriminalizing illegal entry in the first place. In other words they would exempt from deportation ANY unauthorized immigrant who hasn’t committed a serious crime.  Although all of the candidates talked a big game on immigration when asked what would be the first thing they would do upon election, not one of the 20 mentioned solving the immigration issue. I would caution that if the Left doesn’t solve the immigration issue, the Right certainly will and the result would not be pretty.

Then, of a sudden, Kamala Harris brought up Joe Biden’s opposition to forced school busing for the purposes of racial balance in the 1970s. Biden showed his age and hemmed and hawed without really responding. What he should have done was to give full-throated support for his position at the time. Although Harris may have benefitted from busing as a school girl, it was widely unpopular in both the White and Black communities and it ultimately fell of its own weight. Later Elizabeth Warren said she would support busing today. She will soon regret that statement. If you want to date the Los Angeles Unified School District’s slow descent into hell you can do no worse than 1977 when a massive school busing plan was introduced. All I can say Trump’s ad makers will a field day with all of the material that came out of the debates.

As to the candidates, Joe Biden showed his age and if he doesn’t quickly rebound he is a goner. Bernie Sanders is the same crotchety old man he was in 2016, only more so. He has passed his sell by date. Elizabeth Warren, in the height of conceit, has a plan for everything. It is one thing to be bold, but quite another to think that she can reorder a complex society of 330 million people. She wants to be the boss of everything. If Warren were an elementary school teacher, she would be a 5^th grader’s worst nightmare.

Both Kamala Harris and Cory Booker had their moments, but so far both appear to be more show horse than work horse. Nevertheless both of them may have the legs to go the distance. In contrast Amy Klobuchar is more of a work horse and perhaps that is why she is lagging in the polls. Pete Buttigieg is a bright guy, but running the U.S. is a huge leap from South Bend, Indiana. I think he is running for president because he doesn’t see a path to governor or senator in his conservative home state of Indiana. Beto O’Roarke looks like a one trick pony who should be running again for the Senate in Texas.

Given Trump’s unpopularity the Democrats are supposed to win in 2020, but as we witnessed in 2016 they have the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Simply put, Trump can’t win, but whomever is the Democratic nominee can certainly lose.

  

After Action Report on the 2018 Elections

Shulmaven had a very good night. As of this morning it looks like the Democrats will pick up about 35 seats in the House inline with our forecast gain of 35-40; assuming Tester wins in Montana and McSally wins in Arizona the Republicans will pick up 3 Senate seats close to our forecast of a 1-2 seat gain and the Dems have gained seven governorships which is spot on with our forecast of a gain of 7-8 state houses. As we predicted the xenophobic Republican Kris Kobach would lose his governor race in very red Kansas and we just missed by about a percentage point that the Democrat Ned Lamont would lose his governor race in very blue Connecticut.

At least for the Democrats, money in politics was devalued. The big spending liberal trifecta of O'Rourke, Gillum and Abrams went down to defeat. Those defeats raise questions about where the big liberal donors will be in 2020. Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris have to be rethinking their plans.

Given the antisemitic themes used by too many Republican house candidates it was heartening to see former synagogue president Jacky Rosen elected to to the Senate from Nevada. We also saw how important the Kavanaugh nomination fight was for the Republicans.  Democrats Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill all voted against Kavanaugh and went down to defeat. While Manchin who voted for him won in very red West Virginia. And don't forget Democrat Tester is hanging on by his fingernails.

Going forward we have ended up with a much more Trumpian Republican caucus which means that the wreckers in the House will gain ascendancy and the Senate aside from Mitt Romney will rollover for Trump on practically every issue. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will have her work cut out for her in dealing with the loony left of her party and the wacko Republican caucus. At least the White House will face accountability as the subpoenas fly.

I follow up with future blog post on the coming realignment in American politics.

2018 Elections: A Long Night for the Republicans

Although my forecast for this Tuesday's elections is uncomfortably close to the consensus of the pundit class, I really do believe that the Democrats will do quite well and that the Republicans, especially those in the House and the state houses, will be crying in their beer. Given how strong the economy has been, by rights the Republicans should be cruising toward a huge victory, but this year it is certainly NOT "the economy stupid," it is instead "Trump, stupid."

On a seat by seat basis I have the Dems picking up 32 seats, but because most of the excitement is on their side, I think the Dem gains will be on the order of 35-40 seats. In the state houses the Republicans are going to take a licking with the Dems picking up 7-8 governorships. More than a few of those gains will be in historically Republican states. 

In contrast the biggest Republican margins will be in very blue Maryland and Massachusetts where the incumbents are extraordinarily popular and I wouldn't rule out a Republican pickup in the very blue and very ill-governed state of Connecticut. The sweetest Democratic pickup will likely be in the very Republican state of Kansas where the anti-immigrant xenophobe Kris Kobach will go down to defeat.

The Senate will be a different story. The Dems face a horrible map and in that body the Republicans figure to pick up one or two seats. There are too many Senate elections in the margin of error so the range of outcomes here is quite large.

As they say in poker, "read em and weep."

Donald the Destroyer

The Republicans are reaping what they sowed by getting into bed with Donald Trump in 2016. Simply put Donald Trump is systematically destroying the Republican Party. In Virginia a weak Democratic gubernatorial candidate won by 9 points and perhaps more importantly the Democrats wiped out a 36 seat Republican majority in the Virginia House of Delegates. In New Jersey the Republican leaders (Kean and Bramnick) in the legislature were reelected by unusually close margins and local Republican officials went down across the state as the Democrats reclaimed the governorship from Chris Christie's failed regime. And in New York the Republican County Executive lost his job in Westchester County.

What last night's election showed is that Donald Trump is not playing in the wealthy suburbs of of Washington D.C., New York and Philadelphia. His very unpresidential behavior against a backdrop of removing the state and local tax deductions and his opposition to gun control means that across America's suburbs the Republicans tied to Trump are going to lose big next year and no matter how artful the district maps were drawn the Democratic Party is now the odds-on favorite to take the House of Representatives in 2018. Thus instead of being its savior Donald Trump has become the destroyer of the Republican Party.

My Amazon Review of Doris Kearns Goodwin's, "The Bully Pulpit: Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft and the Golden Age of Journalism"

Doris Kearns Goodwin has written a big book and a great book. She tells quite a yarn that holds your interest throughout. It is really three books in one where she brings together the lives of President's Roosevelt and Taft who were lifelong friends until their very public break in 1910 along with the great muckrakers of the day (Ida Tarbell, Ray Baker, William Allen White, Lincoln Steffens and Sam McClure). Theodore Roosevelt is larger than life and an ego-maniac to boot. He brings the verve of the West and the intellect of the East into the White House and with his journalist allies he remakes America into his progressive mold .His break with Taft splits the Republican Party and enables the election of Democrat Woodrow Wilson in 1912. For readers specifically interested in that election, I would recommend James Chace's, "1912 Wilson, Roosevelt, Taft and Debs-The Election that Changed the Country."

However it is Robert Taft and his very modern wife Nellie who come off with their reputations enhanced. Taft is a true progressive, but because of his judicial temperament he never won the love of the progressives of the day. Sounds familiar. It was Taft who successfully governs the Philippines and brings peace to the islands. It was his diplomacy that opens the way to the Portsmouth Peace Conference that settles the Russo-Japanese War and brings along a Noble Peace Prize for Roosevelt and it was under his Administration that the progressive reforms of Roosevelt are solidified. He also establishes a postal savings system to protect the savings of Americans from the risk of bank failure and expands the enforcement of the anti-trust laws. Taft was well ahead of his time in promoting a free trade treaty with Canada that ultimately passes the Congress, but is turned down by the Canadians. Moreover Taft never wanted a break with Roosevelt and did his best to avoid it and after the break it was he who opened the way to their reconciliation.

His wife Nellie is leader in the Kindergarten movement, a percussor to what today we would call early childhood education. It was her political acumen that propels Taft from a judicial to a political career and were were it not for a stroke in 1909, she probably would have enabled Taft to hold on to the presidency in 2012. It was she who brings the cherry blossoms to Washington D.C. You can tell that Kearns Goodwin really loves her.

As to the muckrakers they were true investigative journalists who did real reporting. They were not the blowhards of the MSNBC's and the Fox's of today. They did real work. They were also way to close to the White House for our more modern sensibilities by working hand and glove with Roosevelt to move their joint agendas.

Where Kearns Goodwin goes astray is that she buys way to much of the progressive myth. The poor weren't getting poorer. To be sure the rich were getting richer, but the overall economy was booming. Real wages were rising and the farm depression of the late 1880s and early 1890s was over. She also ignores the work of the so called reactionary Republicans in putting together a national monetary commission that would lead to the establishment of the Federal Reserve. There was a rising middle class who could afford to buy the muckraking journals that were made more economical by improved print technology. She leaves out the facts that the automobile, aircraft and motion picture industries were germinating and would flower in the 1920s. And the country was felling proud of its new role on the world stage, surpassing Britain as the leading economic power and showing off its two ocean navy. Doris Kearns Goodwin has written a hopeful book and she reminds us that we as a nation were young once and we once again can be. If only we can summon the will.

See the Amazon URL at:http://www.amazon.com/review/R64I4WGBFUIMQ

My Letter to Comcast CEO Brian Roberts on MSNBC

I wrote this letter a month ago and have yet to receive a reply. As a long shot, maybe making it public will get a response.

Mr. Brian L. Roberts

Chairman and CEO
Comcast Corporation
One Comcast Center
Philadelphia, PA 19103-2838

 October 1, 2012

Dear Mr. Roberts:

I am writing you as a fiduciary for my wife and daughter who collectively own XXX(original has exact number of shares) shares of Comcast “A” stock. There is a cancer growing on our NBC News franchise and that cancer is MSNBC. By becoming the house organ of the American Left and the mouthpiece for President Obama’s reelection campaign MSNBC is destroying the credibility of NBC News. To be sure if MSNBC were completely separate from NBC News, it would be possible to maintain the hard earned credibility of NBC News. Unfortunately that is not the case.

 Although “Morning Joe” remains a credible outlet for NBC News personalities, it cannot be said for the rest of MSNBC’s programming. I weep when I see the formerly credible Andrea Mitchel get sucked into the partisanship of MSNBC. The same can be said about Tom Brokaw, a newscaster I have watched since he was doing local news in Los Angeles. Moreover our news super-stars, Brian Williams and David Gregory, lose all credibility when they do election coverage with the likes of Rachel Maddow, Ed Schultz and the formerly reasonable Chris Matthews.

 While I agree there is a real cable audience for a Left perspective on the news, I do not believe there is a mass audience for it. Remember NBC News is in the mass audience business and herein lies my worry. The more NBC News mingles with MSNBC it loses credibility with less partisan viewers and those viewers, in my opinion, will find their news elsewhere. Thus whatever is gained with cost-synergies between NBC and MSNBC, more will be lost on the revenue side as ratings drop.

Mr. Roberts, I don’t think I am a right wing crank. The issues I am raising speak to the credibility of the news business. Maybe it was lost a long time ago, but it will make running our democracy far more difficult. Furthermore if NBC and MSNBC continue on their current paths, the profitability of Comcast will be eroded. Speaking for my family, NBC/MSNBC’s share has declined over the past year.

 Yours truly,

David Shulman

My latest blog in US News, "What Obama's, Ryan's Tax Plans are Really About"

For the full article see the URL below:

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2012/04/12/what-obamas-ryans-tax-plans-are-really-about

The Mullahs of Iran are Smiling

This afternoon the Obama Administration denied Transcanada Pipeline's long stalled permit to construct the Keystone XL pipeline that would transport oil from Alberta, Canada to the Gulf Coast. We have written before on President's job killing action in delaying the permit for this $8 billion infrastructure project. The ostensible reason for denying the permit was the potential impact of a pipeline leak in Nebraska's Ogallala Aquifier. However a deal has already been made with the Nebraska Legislature to reroute the pipeline around the aquififier. Then why is Obama halting the project?

The answer is simple. He is sacrificing our national security on the alter of the environmental lobby that he deems necessary for his reelection. At a time when Iran is talking of closing off the Gulf of Hormuz to oil shipments and with our navy playing cat and mouse with the Iranian navy, President Obama stalls an energy project that would supply 800,000 barrels of oil per day to our Gulf Coast. Along the way the pipeline would pick up oil from the highly productive Baaken Shale in North Dakota. With completion of the project our nation would be less dependent on oil tankers coming in from Venezuela, the middle-east and Nigeria.

As a result the President just tied one hand behind his back in our upcoming dealings with Iran. To the Mullahs in Iran we are not serious and I am sure they are smiling tonight.

The Dumb Party and the Evil Party

We Americans are blessed with two major political parties; the dumb party and the evil party. Without question the Republican party is the dumb party. Never have I seen such a collection of wack-job candidates for the presidency and never have I seen such intolerant audiences at the debates. I am truly ashamed.

Look at the field, you have Newt Gingrich, a politician who has more baggage than Samsonite. Then you have a cranky old man in the person of Ron Paul. There is the lovely Michele Bachmann who makes a pretty good impersonation of the wicked witch in The Wizard of Oz. There is Rick Santorum who is so up tight that he looks like he is holding a pea in his butt. What I can I say about Herman Cain, a candidate who talks well but is just not ready for prime time. Forget about the sexual harassment allegations, he just doesn't know what's happening in the world. Then there is the distinguished governor of Texas, Rick Perry. He can't remember what agencies he wants to eliminate. Now Mitt Romney is a very bright guy, but he has taken two sides on all too many important issues so it is hard to tell what is core beliefs are. Jon Huntsman is the class act in field, but in the year of wack jobs, his nomination is not going to happen.

Most alarming is the field's elevating tax policy to a religion. Face it, tax increases will be necessary to solve our fiscal mess and any deal that offers up five or six dollar of spending cuts for every dollar of tax increases should be welcomed with open arms.

So much for the Republicans being dumb; the Democrats are evil. Why? They lie to the people. It is evil to make promises to people that can't be kept. They promise an entitlement state that they can't deliver on. It is cruel to offer a great pension to a 50 year old that won't be there when the employee retires. It is evil to say they support manufacturing and then come up with a host of rules making it impossible to manufacture. They support energy independence, except it can't be accomplished with domestic drilling and a pipeline infrastructure. They chase the chimera of "green tech" knowing it won't supply more than a few percent our energy needs in 2020.

Yes folks, we will have quite a choice to make in 2012.

Election Rap Up

The Republican Party did somewhat worse than the surge I expected two weeks ago. In the House I was pretty close to the mark with the Republicans picking up about 65 seats compared to the 70 seats I envisioned. The Democrats did better in the Senate than I expected by losing 6 seats for sure and possibly a seventh compared to the nine I expected them to lose. Nevertheless it was a good night for Shulmaven. The voters rightly held the Democrats responsible for the high unemployment we are now suffering from.

The big losers last night were obviously President Obama and the Democrats, but largely unnoticed in the press commentary was a string of defeats for Sarah Palin, who in her own way may have cost the Republicans Senate control. Palin favorites Christine O'Donnell in Delaware, Sharon Engle in Nevada and especially Joe Miller in Alaska all went down to defeat. Her stock has peaked and with that she will be less of player in 2012 than most people now imagine. Further, those defeats will make it easier for Republican regulars to bring the Tea Party into the fold and will, in liklihood, make the Tea Party more realistic with respect to future candidates. They will learn that winning is important.

Also beneath the radar was the silent war going on between Senators Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin to replace Harry Reid as majority leader. With Reid's win a temporary truce has settled on the battlefield. Too bad, it would have been fun to watch, but for Shumer and Durban it has feel like coitus interruptus.

Despite Closing Polls, Republican Wave Election Likely

The latest polling data now indicate that this year's competitive Senate races are closing with the leaders of both parties losing ground(e.g. Boxer in California and Toomey in Pennsylvania). Nevertheless because I think this will still be a big Republican year, my best guess is that the GOP will pick up 9 Senate seats, one short of a majority. If I am right, expect to see Senators Lieberman and Nelson holding an auction to determine whether on not they will continue to vote with the Democratic leadership. Net net, Republican Mitch McConnell will be the next majority leader.

As fas as the House goes my best guess is that the Republicans will pick up about 70 seats, far from the 130 seat blow-out of 1894, but way better than the 52 they picked up in 1994. Figure a 250-185 GOP majority. The big questions are what they do with it and can it carry over to 2012. In 1996 the GOP barely hung on and in 1948, the Republican victory of 1946 turned into a debacle. Remember neither party has a magic wand to solve our Nation's deep seated problems and the electorate is, to say the least, very volatile. Thus it would be premature to write-off Democratic prospects for 2012.

This year's election is about two numbers, 9.6% and 17.1%. The former is the official unemployment rate and the latter is the "all-in" unemployment rate that counts involuntary part-time workers and discouraged workers. For whatever reason the Obama Administration and the Democratic majorities in Congress failed to make employment Job One. They will now suffer the consequences.