After Action Report on the 2018 Elections

Shulmaven had a very good night. As of this morning it looks like the Democrats will pick up about 35 seats in the House inline with our forecast gain of 35-40; assuming Tester wins in Montana and McSally wins in Arizona the Republicans will pick up 3 Senate seats close to our forecast of a 1-2 seat gain and the Dems have gained seven governorships which is spot on with our forecast of a gain of 7-8 state houses. As we predicted the xenophobic Republican Kris Kobach would lose his governor race in very red Kansas and we just missed by about a percentage point that the Democrat Ned Lamont would lose his governor race in very blue Connecticut.

At least for the Democrats, money in politics was devalued. The big spending liberal trifecta of O'Rourke, Gillum and Abrams went down to defeat. Those defeats raise questions about where the big liberal donors will be in 2020. Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris have to be rethinking their plans.

Given the antisemitic themes used by too many Republican house candidates it was heartening to see former synagogue president Jacky Rosen elected to to the Senate from Nevada. We also saw how important the Kavanaugh nomination fight was for the Republicans.  Democrats Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill all voted against Kavanaugh and went down to defeat. While Manchin who voted for him won in very red West Virginia. And don't forget Democrat Tester is hanging on by his fingernails.

Going forward we have ended up with a much more Trumpian Republican caucus which means that the wreckers in the House will gain ascendancy and the Senate aside from Mitt Romney will rollover for Trump on practically every issue. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will have her work cut out for her in dealing with the loony left of her party and the wacko Republican caucus. At least the White House will face accountability as the subpoenas fly.

I follow up with future blog post on the coming realignment in American politics.

2018 Elections: A Long Night for the Republicans

Although my forecast for this Tuesday's elections is uncomfortably close to the consensus of the pundit class, I really do believe that the Democrats will do quite well and that the Republicans, especially those in the House and the state houses, will be crying in their beer. Given how strong the economy has been, by rights the Republicans should be cruising toward a huge victory, but this year it is certainly NOT "the economy stupid," it is instead "Trump, stupid."

On a seat by seat basis I have the Dems picking up 32 seats, but because most of the excitement is on their side, I think the Dem gains will be on the order of 35-40 seats. In the state houses the Republicans are going to take a licking with the Dems picking up 7-8 governorships. More than a few of those gains will be in historically Republican states. 

In contrast the biggest Republican margins will be in very blue Maryland and Massachusetts where the incumbents are extraordinarily popular and I wouldn't rule out a Republican pickup in the very blue and very ill-governed state of Connecticut. The sweetest Democratic pickup will likely be in the very Republican state of Kansas where the anti-immigrant xenophobe Kris Kobach will go down to defeat.

The Senate will be a different story. The Dems face a horrible map and in that body the Republicans figure to pick up one or two seats. There are too many Senate elections in the margin of error so the range of outcomes here is quite large.

As they say in poker, "read em and weep."