Although my forecast for this Tuesday's elections is uncomfortably close to the consensus of the pundit class, I really do believe that the Democrats will do quite well and that the Republicans, especially those in the House and the state houses, will be crying in their beer. Given how strong the economy has been, by rights the Republicans should be cruising toward a huge victory, but this year it is certainly NOT "the economy stupid," it is instead "Trump, stupid."
On a seat by seat basis I have the Dems picking up 32 seats, but because most of the excitement is on their side, I think the Dem gains will be on the order of 35-40 seats. In the state houses the Republicans are going to take a licking with the Dems picking up 7-8 governorships. More than a few of those gains will be in historically Republican states.
In contrast the biggest Republican margins will be in very blue Maryland and Massachusetts where the incumbents are extraordinarily popular and I wouldn't rule out a Republican pickup in the very blue and very ill-governed state of Connecticut. The sweetest Democratic pickup will likely be in the very Republican state of Kansas where the anti-immigrant xenophobe Kris Kobach will go down to defeat.
The Senate will be a different story. The Dems face a horrible map and in that body the Republicans figure to pick up one or two seats. There are too many Senate elections in the margin of error so the range of outcomes here is quite large.
As they say in poker, "read em and weep."
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