Friday, June 28, 2024

Debacle in Atlanta

 President Joe Biden looked like a doddering old man and Donald Trump lied through his teeth at their debate last night. Neither one was edifying and most important neither one talked about the future further confirming the public's suspicion of both candidates. The Democratic Party talking heads are in full blown melt down calling for Biden to withdraw from the race leaving the way open for a new nominee. This will not happen unless leading Democratic office holders follow the lead of the pundit class.

However even if Biden steps down,  there is a fly in the ointment. Because the Democratic Convention occurs on Aug 19-22 two weeks after the Ohio filing deadline of August 7th, the plan was for the convention to electronically nominate Biden prior to the deadline. Now if Biden steps down and the Democrats have an open convention to select a new nominee, that nominee will not be on the Ohio ballot, thereby conceding the state to Trump. Further, without a presidential race in Ohio, it is likely that the veteran Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown would go down to defeat. Thus the Dems would be between a rock and a hard place.

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Requiem for Santa Monica Place

 In 2010 I wrote about my history with Santa Monica Place and Macerich's $265 million renovation which opened an hitherto enclosed fortress mall. (See: Shulmaven: My History with Santa Monica Place )  As of 2010 Macerich had invested a total of $400 million in the asset and much more since then. A few weeks ago Macerich turned in the keys to the lender thereby walking away from a $300 million mortgage. What makes this credit event critical is that this mall was once anchored by toney Bloomingdale's, while  Nordstrom still hangs on and the real estate advisory service Green Street rated the mall A+. Santa Monica Place was not in the category of the B and C malls in second tier cities that have been foreclosed upon in recent years. Indeed Santa Monica is among the priciest real estate markets in the country.

Then, why did the mall fail. Santa Monica Place could not keep pace with the mega-mall in Century City and it faced new competition form Rick Caruso's luxury development in nearby Pacific :Palisades. The mall was plagued by it congenital under-parking and the confusing nature of the city-owned parking structures. However, the most important reason for its financial demise was crime and the perception of crime in the area. All of this was dramatized during the civil disturbances associated with the murder of George Floyd in 2020 at the adjacent open air Santa Monica Promenade. To add an exclamation point to what happened at Santa Monica Place, Federal Realty, a highly regarded operator of street retail and community shopping centers exited from the Promenade by selling all of its remaining holdings  for $103 million.

The lessons here are straight forward. Retail real estate requires constant investment and the surrounding environment has to welcoming and safe. Absent that, even what can be characterized as A+ can fail.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

The Hidden Agenda Behind Trump's VP Pick

There is all kinds of speculation about who Donald Trump will pick for his VP. Pundits are evaluating all of the candidates in a very traditional sense from the likelihood of the candidate adding to the ticket or at minimum doing no harm. One week Marco Rubio is up, in another week Elise Stefanick looks good and then there is the acolyte, J.D. Vance. As of this five minutes former North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, with a limited national reputation, seems to have the edge  

My guess is that Burgum, who will be 68 in August will be Trump's pick. However, he will be picked because he is bland and thus will be far less of a threat when Don Jr. enters the fray in 2028. Daddy Trump wants to build a dynasty and the biggest threat to that would be a charismatic VP pick that would either be a sitting vice-president in 2028 or a very well known national figure poised to make a run then. 

Don Jr. is speaking everywhere for his dad and his being around three presidential campaigns and one term in the White House he certainly has the bug. Hidden in plain sight, Don Jr. is being groomed to succeed his father as the leader of Trump World. The risk to my thesis would be if Trump perceives himself to be far behind in July he might be forced to abandon Don Jr. and pick charismatic candidate for VEEP.

Monday, June 17, 2024

My Amazon Review of Graham Moore's "The Wealth of Shadows"

 Economic Warfare


Oscar winning screenwriter Graham Moore (“Imitation Game”) has written an international economics book in the guise of an historical novel. Moore’s topics involve America’s economic war against Germany prior to our direct entrance into the war in December 1941 and the need to establish a postwar economic architecture that would avoid the foibles of the interwar years. The idea of economic warfare has relevance to today given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ongoing trade issues with China.


Moore’s protagonists are Minnesota tax attorney Ansel Luxford and his wife Angela who end up working in Washington D.C. in 1939. Moore goes to work for senior Treasury advisor Harry Dexter White in a super-secret group dedicated to disrupting the Nazi economy and Angela who finds a job as a clerk in the F.B.I. All of the characters in the book are real people and Moore lets the reader know where his account diverged from the historical record. The group initially fails in preventing Brazil from exporting iron ore to Germany largely because of

State Department opposition led by the Nazi sympathizing Assistant Secretary of State Breckenridge Long. Long also worked tirelessly to prevent Jewish immigration to the United States.

 

After the initial failure with Brazil, the group succeeds in freezing German funds in the United States, comes up with the cash and carry scheme to allow France and England to purchase war materials from the United States and accurately predicts that Hitler would have to invade Poland because the German economy was based on continuous plunder.

 

There is much dialogue between British economist and treasury aide John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White. Most of the dialogue is derived from written communications between them. It is no secret that these two did not get along and had serious differences of opinion. This came to a head at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 where Keynes backed his proposed international currency, the Bancor, while White succeeded in having the gold convertible U.S. Dollar as the core of global finance.

 

We don’t find out until the very end that Harry Dexter White was all along a Soviet spy. Ansel and Angela discover this when they witness a “dead drop” in the New Hampshire woods outside of the conference.

 

Moore utilized the works of Adam Tooze in explaining Nazi finance, Zachary Carter on Keynes’ views on the economics of global peace, and Benn Steil on the Bretton Woods Conference. He also threw in for good measure a vignette on one of the members of the team buying a used car which highlighted the role of information asymmetry that won George Ackerlof the Nobel Prize.

 

My few qualms about the book are that Moore seems to tilt too much towards modern monetary theory in explaining how the U.S. and Britain financed the war and sets Lindberg’s infamous Des Moines speech in 1940, instead of 1941. Notwithstanding these qualms, Moore offers us an easy way to understand some of the history of World War II and the economics behind it and it highlights the career of the hitherto anonymous Ansel Luxford who was in the room where much history was made.

For the full Amazon URL see:  Economic Warfare (amazon.com)

Tuesday, June 11, 2024

My Amazon Review of Nellie Bowles' "Morning After the Revolution........"

 The True Believers*

 

A few years ago, I called Nellie Bowles a “national treasure” on Twitter. With her new book she has certainly lived up to that appellation. Bowles a former New York Times reporter and now a reporter/editor with her wife Bari Weiss at the very lively Free Press. If you haven’t already subscribed, I urge you to check it out.

 

Bowles is today a refugee from the woke culture which she thoroughly subscribed to in the second decade of our century. Her book is a series of essays on such topics as the cancel culture, the failure of San Francisco, the struggle sessions involved in the woke culture, the trans culture, policing and the hustlers in the anti-racism world, among others.

 

It seems that whatever the cause, be it anti-racism, anti-police, support for trans individuals, and today anti-Israel protestors there seems to be need on the far left to believe in something. So, if the protests around Black Lives Matter fizzled out there are new causes to believe in. These folks find their identity in believing in something. They are true believers in the sense Eric Hoffer wrote about them over seventy years ago.

 

As a result, there is no arguing with them because the cause they currently believe in takes on a religious intensity. To me, in many respects, their causes are a substitute for religion. Nellie Bowles has written an important book for our time because it gives insight into the extremes we are now witnessing.

 

·     *  Apologies to Eric Hoffer

 

 

For the full Amazon URL see: The True Believers* (amazon.com)

Monday, June 3, 2024

WSJ and Sen. Roger Wicker Follow Shulmaven on Rearmament

 Today's editorial in The Wall Street Journal heeded the call of Senator Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), the ranking Republican on the Armed Services Committee. (See: A Clarion Call for Rearmament - WSJ, paywall). Wicker 's called for increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP, up from the current 3%. Specifically, the editorial noted "Mr. Biden talks about a world at risk from autocracies, but he acts like this is 1992 and the Soviet Union just collapsed. The world today is more like the late 1930s, as dictators build their militaries and form a new axis of animosity, while the American political class sleeps."

This is pretty much what we said on March 8th:

"President Roosevelt's speech which has become to be known as his "Four Freedoms Speech" was delivered on January 6, 1941. Only a week before Roosevelt gave fireside chat where he declared the United States to be "an arsenal of democracy." The difference today is that President Biden is nowhere near declaring America as an arsenal of democracy. Indeed his proposed defense budget will show a meager 1% increase. Given the tone of his speech and the prewar environment we are now living in, he should have called for a massive increase in defense spending. (See: Shulmaven: Shulmaven Anticipates Hal Brands Foreign Affairs Article on Pre-WW II and Today) Thus his rhetoric is way ahead of his actions." (See: Shulmaven: President Biden's State of the Union: Strong on Form Weak on Substance )

Now all we need is for the isolationist Trumpies and head-in-the sand Democrats to heed the call.