2026: The Humiliation of Donald Trump

 The Republican Party suffered its worst midterm defeat since 1958, worse than that of the 1974 Watergate debacle. As of this morning the Democrats are on track to win between 35-40 House seats and 7-9 in the Senate. In the 1974 Watergate year the Democrats picked up 49 House seats and 4 in the Senate; in response to the 1957-58 recession the Democrats picked up 49 House seats and an astounding 15 seats in the Senate. Make no mistake, this humiliating defeat of the Republican Party lies at the feet of Donald Trump. For example, his preferred candidates in hitherto Republican Texas and South Carolina went down to defeat.

 

The Democrats did far better than I thought they would only a few days where I had them winning at net of 3 Senate seats and 20-25 House Seats. ( Shulmaven: 2026 Elections: The Democrats Strike Back ) I had them picking up 3-4 governorships while it now looks like they will pick up at least 5, including Georgia and Texas. However, I noted that redistricting in a wave election can backfire, which it did last night with the following comment: “I would also point out that in wave elections partisan redistricting actually hurts rather than help.”

 

The Democratic tide brought with it the twin bacilli of antisemitism and socialism. With Senate candidates like El-Sayed of Michigan and Maine’s Jackson along with more than a few House winners we will soon find out whether the Democratic Party’s immune system is strong enough to ward off this incipient infection.

 

Going forward Capitol Hill will be a far different place. It is likely that we will be soon witnessing “show trials” investigating the corruption of Trump’s family, former cabinet officials, Elon Musk, and a host of “Tech Bros,” and other corporate officials who cozied up to the administration. This may be fun to watch, but my guess is that it could very well be a distraction from the policy changes that lie ahead.

 

On the policy front look for attacks on pharmacy benefit managers, crypto, data centers (especially from the new Governors of Texas and Ohio), and for restrictions on Trump’s tariff powers. The Democrats will push for ending the Medicaid work requirements and for restoring the Obama Care subsidies. The Democrats will also push to restore the subsidies to alternative energy. Further, there will be an attempt to reduce out-year defense spending. Given the tension over the budget, a government shutdown is likely especially over the debt ceiling vote that comes up in July.

 

Because both the Republican and the Democrats have had no interest in deficit reduction for over a decade, the path of least resistance between Trump’s veto pen and the Democratic policy changes would be to increase the deficit. That may work for a while, but while neither party may be interested in the deficit, the deficit will soon be interested in them. (e.g., France)

The Redistricting Melee

Donald Trump started the redistricting melee by calling on Texas to undertake an unprecedented mid-census congressional redistricting to create five additional Republican seats. California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom responded in kind by calling a successful referendum to redistrict California to create an additional five Democratic seats and the partisan war was on. It came crashing down for the Democrats in Virginia this week when their Supreme Court ruled their redistricting referendum unconstitutional. That plan would have created four more Democratic seats. Along the way Trump unseated candidates in Indiana's Republican primary that opposed his redistricting plan for the state.

Then of a sudden the U.S. Supreme Court declared parts of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 unconstitutional paving the way to redistrict a host of Black (Democratic) seats across the South. Tennessee and Louisiana have already acted. Further, by 2028 elections there will be a raft of redistricting across Democratic and Republican states. I don't know who the ultimate winner will be, but I do know the American voter will be the loser. Simply put voters should choose their politicians, not the other way around.

Meantime after being down in the dumps all year, the Republican Party now has some spring in its steps. To me their optimism and the Democrats pessimism is premature. Why? In a wave election, and if there is to be a wave, it will be the Democrats that sweep and instead of helping, redistricting will hurt because it dilutes a party's strength where it was presumably strong.(See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2018/07/gerrymandering-wont-save-republicans-in.html ) Second, I would hope that the electorate gives a big F-You to both parties by voting Republican in California and Democratic in Texas. It maybe too much to hope for, but I fear that both parties are now circling the drain. We need something new.