In our 2026 outlook piece last December we wrote:
“The Democrats
will seize control of the House gaining anywhere between 15-40 seats and could
very well take the Senate. Just to note the last time one party controlled all
three branches of government was 2003-2006 inclusive and before that it was
1977-1980 inclusive. Americans like divided government. I would also point out
that in wave elections partisan redistricting actually hurts rather than help.”
(See: Shulmaven: 2026: A Year of Turbulence )
Aside from America’s
preference for divided government, the fundamentals look very good for the
Democrats and horrible for the Republicans. In off-year elections, especially
the 6th year of a presidency (albeit interrupted), the incumbent
party does poorly. President Trump’s popularity is in the toilet, the Iran War
is unpopular, although the rate of inflation is down from its 2022 peak, prices
remain high especially for gasoline and diesel, and there is a stench of
corruption hanging over the White House. Thus, the only question that remains
is the extent of the Democratic victory.
In the House of
Representatives my best guess is that the Democrats will pick up between 20-25
seats thereby gaining a clear majority with 235-240 seats. It could be more,
but it is not clear to me that the electorate wants a tsunami that would lead
to a 40-seat gain. As we noted above, the fate of the Senate is trickier where candidate
quality, campaign spending, and historical voting patterns tend to predominate.
By the time it is over, which might take a week, the Senate could very well end up in a tie, with the Democrats picking up a net of three seats yielding a 50-50 Senate with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie breaking vote. The Democrats will win North Carolina with Cooper, Ohio with Brown, Texas with Talarico, and Kansas with Hamilton. The Democrats will lose Michigan with Rogers beating El-Sayed. Republicans Collins of Maine and Sullivan of Alaska will successfully resist the Democratic tide.
If I am underestimating the Democratic gains by one seat, then with a
51-49 Senate, Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman would become the new Joe Manchin who
might actually switch parties. I would note that several of these races look
really close that would make it possible for the Republicans to end up with 52
seats or the Democrats with 54 seats.
I haven’t followed
the governors’ races that closely, but it looks like the Democrats will pick up
a net of three or four governorships. Those gains, especially in Ohio and Iowa,
will of be of great importance in 2028. Because I am already on the record on
X, I have Abbott in Texas being re-elected.
Out of the Republican
carnage I believe the national press will soon take note of Saritha Komatireddy,
the Republican candidate for Attorney General in New York. She will give
incumbent Democrat Letitia James a run for her money.
