The Republican Party suffered its worst midterm defeat since 1958, worse than that of the 1974 Watergate debacle. As of this morning the Democrats are on track to win between 35-40 House seats and 7-9 in the Senate. In the 1974 Watergate year the Democrats picked up 49 House seats and 4 in the Senate; in response to the 1957-58 recession the Democrats picked up 49 House seats and an astounding 15 seats in the Senate. Make no mistake, this humiliating defeat of the Republican Party lies at the feet of Donald Trump. For example, his preferred candidates in hitherto Republican Texas and South Carolina went down to defeat.
The Democrats did far
better than I thought they would only a few days where I had them winning at
net of 3 Senate seats and 20-25 House Seats. ( Shulmaven: 2026
Elections: The Democrats Strike Back ) I had them picking up 3-4 governorships
while it now looks like they will pick up at least 5, including Georgia and
Texas. However, I noted that redistricting in a wave election can backfire,
which it did last night with the following comment: “I would also point out that in wave elections
partisan redistricting actually hurts rather than help.”
The Democratic tide brought with it the twin bacilli of
antisemitism and socialism. With Senate candidates like El-Sayed of Michigan
and Maine’s Jackson along with more than a few House winners we will soon find
out whether the Democratic Party’s immune system is strong enough to ward off
this incipient infection.
Going forward Capitol Hill will be a far different place. It
is likely that we will be soon witnessing “show trials” investigating the
corruption of Trump’s family, former cabinet officials, Elon Musk, and a host
of “Tech Bros,” and other corporate officials who cozied up to the
administration. This may be fun to watch, but my guess is that it could very
well be a distraction from the policy changes that lie ahead.
On the policy front look for attacks on pharmacy benefit
managers, crypto, data centers (especially from the new Governors of Texas and
Ohio), and for restrictions on Trump’s tariff powers. The Democrats will push
for ending the Medicaid work requirements and for restoring the Obama Care
subsidies. The Democrats will also push to restore the subsidies to alternative
energy. Further, there will be an attempt to reduce out-year defense spending.
Given the tension over the budget, a government shutdown is likely especially
over the debt ceiling vote that comes up in July.
Because both the Republican and the Democrats have had no
interest in deficit reduction for over a decade, the path of least resistance
between Trump’s veto pen and the Democratic policy changes would be to increase
the deficit. That may work for a while, but while neither party may be
interested in the deficit, the deficit will soon be interested in them. (e.g.,
France)
