My Review of John Valliant's "Fire Weather"

 The Fire Beast of Fort MacMurray

 

Journalist John Valliant tells the horror story of the great fire that engulfed Fort MacMurray in May 2016. It was truly a beast that acted like a conquering army as it burned most of this city of 90,000 to the ground. Fort MacMurray is the home of the Canadian oil sands industry where oil is mined in the form of bitumen that requires huge energy inputs to process it. Hence it requires oil prices in excess of $60/barrel to be profitable. Although high in cost, it does not require any exploration costs, because the location of the deposit is known.

 

Valliant has really written three books in one. The first comes from eyewitness accounts of how the fire enveloped the city as brave firefighters and citizens fought a near hopeless battle. Remarkably the city was evacuated with minimum casualties. Here we see heroism in action.

 

The second is a history of climate science going back to the 1700’s. He particularly pays attention to boreal forests, like the one that surrounds Fort MacMurray, that have become exceptionally stressed in a hotter world. In May 2016, the temperatures rose to above 80 degrees and the humidity dropped to a desert-like 12 percent. In that environment any small spark could and did ignite a conflagration. Thus, in a hotter world the boreal forests of Canada, America and Russia are all set up for great fires in the future. Indeed, the release of the stored carbon resulting from the fire has the potential to undo much of the progress being made in decarbonizing society. This clearly is not a hopeful conclusion.

 

The third book is a screed attacking the oil companies and the “petroscene” age they brought about. He recounts the oil industry’s early research into climate change and then their campaign of denial. I think he overdoes it. Valliant also seems to look with disdain at the vehicle heavy lifestyle of the oil workers. With incomes of around $200,000 a year, the workers had the wherewithal to multiple cars and trucks and all-terrain vehicles, not a bad lifestyle for the Canadian working class.

 

Nevertheless, the main message of the book is that we will be living with great forest fires in the future and more fires in the wildland urban interface neighborhoods which are prevalent in the American west.

Biden vs. Trump: Round 2

 Compared to their first debate, last night's debate could be characterized as "normal." Put bluntly Trump was well behaved and he more or less followed the rules of debate and Biden remained largely unflappable. If you came into the debate supporting Trump you thought he won. Similarly if you came into the debate supporting Biden you thought he won. So roughly speaking the debate was close to a draw with Trump beating the very low expectations most people had for him. Although Trump appeared to hold his own on the COVID portion of the debate, the facts on the ground demonstrate his complete ineptitude in handling the pandemic.

Biden made an unforced error in his call for a complete transition away from oil and for an explicit ban on fracking on public lands. This will cost him votes in Texas and perhaps Pennsylvania. My guess is that any hope that Biden had from pulling an upset in Texas went down the drain last night. It also has the potential of hurting Democrats in down ballot races in the oil and gas producing states.

Nevertheless with the Biden in the lead with less then two weeks to go, Trump failed in his major objective to shake up the race. Indeed whatever he gained from his civility last night, will be lost when 60 Minutes runs their interview with him on Sunday night. 

The clear winner in the debate was moderator Kristin Welker. She was in full command and had the whip hand with the ability for the control room to turn off the debate microphones. I called attention her star quality and three of her NBC colleagues three years ago in a blog post. (See https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2017/09/from-murrows-boys-to-oppenheims-girls.html)