Friday, October 23, 2020

Biden vs. Trump: Round 2

 Compared to their first debate, last night's debate could be characterized as "normal." Put bluntly Trump was well behaved and he more or less followed the rules of debate and Biden remained largely unflappable. If you came into the debate supporting Trump you thought he won. Similarly if you came into the debate supporting Biden you thought he won. So roughly speaking the debate was close to a draw with Trump beating the very low expectations most people had for him. Although Trump appeared to hold his own on the COVID portion of the debate, the facts on the ground demonstrate his complete ineptitude in handling the pandemic.

Biden made an unforced error in his call for a complete transition away from oil and for an explicit ban on fracking on public lands. This will cost him votes in Texas and perhaps Pennsylvania. My guess is that any hope that Biden had from pulling an upset in Texas went down the drain last night. It also has the potential of hurting Democrats in down ballot races in the oil and gas producing states.

Nevertheless with the Biden in the lead with less then two weeks to go, Trump failed in his major objective to shake up the race. Indeed whatever he gained from his civility last night, will be lost when 60 Minutes runs their interview with him on Sunday night. 

The clear winner in the debate was moderator Kristin Welker. She was in full command and had the whip hand with the ability for the control room to turn off the debate microphones. I called attention her star quality and three of her NBC colleagues three years ago in a blog post. (See https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2017/09/from-murrows-boys-to-oppenheims-girls.html)

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