On October 27, 1972, Henry Kissinger told the nation that “peace is at hand” in Vietnam. He was premature to say the least. We now have announcements from Israel, Hamas, and various Arab states that they are on board with President Trump’s 20-point plan to settle the Israel-Hamas War. Discussions will begin tomorrow in Egypt with Hamas already agreeing to release all of the hostages, both dead and alive, that they hold. A reason to be optimistic is that unlike in 1972 when the North Vietnamese Army was standing strong, Hamas is sitting on the brink of military defeat.
However, the hostage
release is not the be all and end all to the conflict. The critical sticking
points that remain is whether or not Hamas will disarm as required and that
Hamas will have no role in the future governing body of Gaza. Both of those conditions
Hamas has yet to agree to. Further complicating the situation is that Israel
attempted to assassinate Khalil
Al-Hayya, Hamas’ lead negotiator in Doha, an attack in which his son was
killed.
My belief, or hope, is that these obstacles will be overcome.
Why? Simply put, the correlation of forces is such that Hamas’ choice is to
accept the terms or be “obliterated” using President Trump’s term. An early
sign of progress will be the speed at which the Israeli hostages are being released.
Of course, all of Israel will be looking at the physical condition of the alive
hostages being released which will obviously affect Israel’s negotiating
posture. Meantime, the ball is in Hamas’ court.
