My sense is that 2022 will not be rerun of 2021. Presented below are a few of my non-consensus thoughts about 2022.
* 2022 will be the year of foreign policy crises. The Biden Adminstration will pay the price for its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan by having to face down Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. (See Shulmaven: Joe Biden, Hang Down your Head in Shame: ) It is going to be a real mess. As a result the remnants of the Build Back Better program will likely fail. This will not be the first time in history that plans for domestic reform fell victim to the exigencies of foreign policy.
* After Omicron peaks in January, COVID will largely be behind us.
*The economy will boom in 2022 as things get back to normal with real GDP growth on a fourth-to-fourth quarter basis exceeding 4%.
*Inflation will still be running hot as 2022 ends with the Consumer Price Index up over 4% on a year-over-year basis. Housing costs will be up over 6%, in the face of labor shortages medical services will be running above 4% and there will be no relief coming from falling oil prices.
*The stock market will prove both the bulls and bears right during the year with the high and low end of the S&P 500 targets of 5200 and 4400, respectively being achieved. (See: Shulmaven: Powell and Wall Street's Strategist Divergence )
*Sometime during the year a leveraged player in the Bitcoin market will fail triggering a mini-financial crisis.
As they say in poker, read'em and weep.
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