There were two important court rulings last week and though dealing with separate issues were deeply related. The first was the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that the National Archives has to turn over its Trump documents to the January 6th Committee against the executive privilege argument made by Trump. That case is headed for the Supreme Court. In the second case the Supreme Court pretty much ruled in favor of Texas' anti-abortion law that allows for the private enforcement againt abortion providers who perform abortions after the first six weeks of pregancy. Of course standing in the background is the recently argued Mississippi statute that outlaws abortions after the first fifteen weeks of pregnancy. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on that issue in June.
Now how are the abortion rulings related to the National Archives case? It is my guess with the Supreme Court facing intense criticism for its presumed partisanship in favor of conservative causes (e.g. anti-abortion), will rule against Trump in the National Archives case to demonstrate its nonpartisan bona fides. It would happen this way. Trump's lawyers will ask for a hearing at the Supreme Court and Chief Justice John Roberts denies their application and there are not five other justices to grant a hearing. This Supreme Court independence will be hailed as great victory the January 6th Committee and it will give the court the political cover to rule in favor of Mississippi's abortion law, either narrowly or by completely overturning Rowe v. Wade.
To be perfectly cynical about this, the conservatives on court will throw Trump under the bus. To them Trump was useful in the creation of a conservative majority on court and now that they have achieved their goals, Trump would have outlived his usefulness.
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