Although America’s blockade of the Persian Gulf is working causing oil storage problems in Iran, an implosion of its economy and a collapse of its currency, severe cracks in the home front have emerged. The 60-day clock of the War Powers Act has run out, and President Trump’s approval rating, with gas prices up nearly 50%, has declined to 37%, according to the latest poll. Indeed, beyond the wackos on the Right and the Left who are rooting for Iran, it seems that voices of the liberal establishment are implicitly supporting an Iranian victory. Why? Their hatred of Trump overwhelms all considerations of America’s security interests in the middle east region.
So, where do we go
from here? Trump’s novel interpretation of the War Powers Act arguing that direct
fighting between the U.S. and Iran ceased in early April, means that should
hostilities resume a new 60-day clock would start. The ball is now in Congress’
court, but I would note Congress did nothing in 2011 when President Obama engaged
in hostilities in Libya for six months. Further, every president since Nixon
have has stated that the act is unconstitutional; it looks like we will once
again be headed to the Supreme Court on the issue of executive power.
Meantime, Trump, and
Chinese leader Xi are scheduled to meet in less than two weeks. This meeting has been
postponed before, and it may yet be postponed again. Nevertheless, my guess is
that meeting or no meeting, Trump will execute the new military plan to attack
Iran’s infrastructure as a means to coerce Iran to yield on its nuclear
program.
Beneath the surface
the dynamics of the middle east are changing before us. The UAE is leaving OPEC
and there seems to be a budding alliance between the UAE and Israel. Israeli troops
are on the ground in the UAE to assist in its first ever deployment of its iron
dome air defense system outside of the country. Thus, it would be a foreign policy blunder of
the first order for the U.S. to fail to achieve its fundamental war aims.
* See: Shulmaven: The Purim War- Part 5, Deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz*
