American Jews: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

American Jews are between a rock and a hard place politically. With the Democratic Party increasingly dominated by Hamasnicks and the DEI ideology of oppressors versus oppressed where Jews are characterized as oppressors, belonging to the party of our ancestors no longer seems to make sense. For a while, the Republicans appeared to be immune from the antisemitism of the Democrats, but that immunity is no longer there.

 

With Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts sucking up to the antisemitism of Tucker Carlson, the American Right has moved closer to whiffing the noxious fumes of antisemitism. Adding insult to injury, Tucker Carlson’s friendly interview with the noted antisemite and Hitler/Stalin lover, mainstreamed Nick Fuentes, and his Groypers into the heart of the Republican Party. I would note here that Tucker Carlson’s son Buckley is now on JD Vance’s staff. History could very well record that the assassination of Charlie Kirk took from us on of the few conservatives who could take on Carlson and Fuentes.

 

To be sure there is real opposition to Fuentes and his gang coming from more establishment Republicans, notably Ted Cruz, but just like the Democrats the energy is with the extremists. Indeed, supporting antisemitism and anti-Zionism is part of a proxy war within both parties to overturn the current status quo. 

 

As a result, it is not comfortable to be a Jew in either party today. However, we have no choice because we have to take the world as it is rather than as we want it to be.

 

So, what is a Jew to do? To me Jews in both parties should fight and fight hard. They should not cower to the bullies in either party and instead take them on aggressively in party councils, the media and in every social interaction. We should remember the lessons pf the 1930’s where cowering in the face of evil does not end well. Further, pressure should be put on all of the Jews who make common cause with the antisemites. Those Jews should either mend their ways or be regarded as fifth columnists.

 

In the meantime, it would not hurt to take self defense classes and weapons training in the event things turn really ugly. As the saying goes, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

The Democrats Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

The way I see it the Democrats won the political battle over the government shutdown, but as soon as they attacked the deal they committed an unforced error and gave Trump and the Republicans a victory.  Instead of looking like winners the Democrats became losers. How so? With the shut down the Democrats proved they were no longer comatose and were ready to fight Trump and that stance along with Trump voter buyer's remorse set the stage for huge victories in the off-year election.

On the governing side the Democrats achieved robust funding for the SNAP program, the rehiring of riffed workers during the shutdown and were guaranteed a vote on the Obama Care subsidies in December. The Dems have made short shrift of the pledge for a vote on the subsidies. but here they are wrong. The vote will place the Republicans at the horns of a dilemma. If they do nothing, the Dems will have the perfect issue for the mid-terms and if the Republicans compromise with a lower income limit and a minimum premium the Democrats would have achieved their major goal policy goal for the shutdown. The Dems win either way.

Thus, instead of vilifying the eight Democrats who broke the filibuster, they should in turn, commend them for their political savvy and common sense. Sometimes, in politics, you have to know when to take a win.  

My Review of Ray Dalio's "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle"

 Paying the Piper

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, which became the world’s largest macro hedge fund, has written an important book on the inexorable reality that accumulated debts have to be extinguished one way or another. He utilizes a host of international examples and aside from the U.S. he focuses in on Japan and China. No matter the country, the piper has to be paid. Dalio’s big cycle lasts approximately 80 years, and it is in many ways similar to the long cycles discussed in Neil Howe’s “The Fourth Turning.” (See: Shulmaven: My Review* of Neil Howe's "The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History......" ) It seems that we are on the precipice of Dalio’s big cycle joining  the crisis point  of Howe’s generational cycle. If that is the case, the turbulent time we are now living in is only in its early stages.

 

Dalio’s debt/credit/economy cycle big cycle is made up of a series of short cycles where credit expands and contracts. However, overtime debt increasingly accumulates because it does not generate the revenue needed to service it. The monetary authorities accommodate the increase in debt by going from MP0 where money is tied to a fixed standard, like gold to MP1 where policy is tied to a policy rate to MP2 where through quantitative easing money is printed. At the end of the day when the debt can no longer be serviced at reasonable interest rate, the debt is either directly repudiated or inflated away in order to deleverage the economy. If the debt is not denominated in local currency, it will be repudiated.

 

Overlapping the credit cycle are two other cycles and exogenous events such as acts of nature and the introduction of major innovations that spur growth. The cycles are an internal political cycle evolving around order/disorder and an external cycle similarly revolving around order/disorder. Today the confluence of the big credit cycle with disorder in both internally and externally means Howe’s fourth turning is upon us. What can mitigate this eventuality or make things worse will be the impact of innovative artificial intelligence on our society.

 

Dalio’s solution to the big cycle calls for reducing the federal deficit as a share of GDP from the current 6% to 3% by increasing taxes, lowering spending and lower interest rates. Similar to the 1990’s deficit reduction, if credible, would work to lower interest rates. Some of these nostrums sound similar to what the Trumpies are arguing, except the part about tax increase, tariffs aside. The Trump way of lowering the debt/GDP ratio relies heavily on much lower long-term interest rates that would bring with it other issues.

 

Dalio is clearly worried, and he makes a compelling case to be worried. My criticism of the book is that although he highlights his main points in bold, it still is way to repetitive and because I read the book on my Kindle, the numerous charts were too difficult to read. I therefore would recommend the hard copy.

Havana on the Hudson - Part 2

The Democrats had a great election night winning in New Jersey, Virginia, California, Pennsylvania and Georgia; Donald Trump and the Republicans had a terrible night as voters, especially Latinos, suffered from buyers’ remorse over their votes in 2024; and New York City, especially its large Jewish community, had a horrible night with the election Zohran Mamdani, the antisemitic socialist as mayor. With Mamdani’s plans to build socialism in New York, the city is now further down the road to becoming Havana on the Hudson. (See: https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/06/havana-on-hudson.html )

 

Mamdani plans called for a rent freeze, a massive public housing program, free childcare, free buses, city owned grocery stores, handcuffing the police, $30/hour minimum wage, and much higher taxes on businesses and high-income New Yorkers. For much of this he needs legislative action from Albany. Although most believe that action will not be forthcoming, you can’t count on the wimpy Democrats on holding firm against him. They could very well cave.

 

Mamdani’s program more than anything else is focused on reducing New York’s high rents. Building more apartments will certainly help, but that will not bring relief in the short run, and a rent freeze will actually raise rents on city’s non-rent-controlled apartments. Indeed, the only way Mamdani could lower rents would be for the city to return to hellhole it was in the 1970’s with crime running rampant. Although Mamdani said he would reappoint Jessica Tisch, the highly regarded police commissioner, they have yet to speak and one wonders what Tisch’s conditions would be for her to stay. In a straw in the wind Fire Commissioner Robert Tucker resigned today over Mamdani’s severe anti-Israel stance.

 

For those Jews who are complacent about Mamdani, I would warn them the Mamdani is anti-Israel to his core. Anti-Zionism is what got him into politics in the first place. My question is with Mamdani as mayor, who will protect the Jewish community from street and subway attacks and the defacement of synagogues which actually started last night?

 

Mamdani is no joke, this TikTok Jacobin will have real power and for those with the means it might just make sense to leave the city before it is too late.

Something Investors are not Thinking About

Although there has been recent commentary about the sustainability of corporate profit margins with the stock market bears arguing that the high margins now being reported will soon regress to the mean and the bulls arguing that, at least for now, margins will remain on a high plateau; there has not been any commentary on the sustainability of the historically low corporate tax regime of the past eight years.  Just to note the the high profit margin argument of the bulls is being used to discredit the near record high of the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio. (See:https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2025/06/my-ucla-anderson-forecast-presentation.html )  

What few people realize that the current corporate tax rate of 21% is from an historical point of view unusually low. Indeed the 21% rate inaugurated in 2017 is the lowest corporate tax rate since 1939. For example, throughout much of the 1950's to the early 1960's the corporate tax rate was 52% (Not a typo) and from 1993-2017 it stood at 35%. Why is this important? 

In an era where most observers believe the federal deficit  now running at 6% of GDP is not sustainable in the long run, something is going to have to give on the tax front. Although no change is likely until 2029, a future administration could very well find the corporate income tax as a tempting target to raise revenue. Indeed the higher corporate margins go, the easier it will be politically  to increase the tax rate. 

Admittedly this is not an issue for today, but it could very well come to the fore in a few years.