After Action Report on the 2024 Election

Shulmaven did not cover itself with glory this year. We thought Harris would win because she would be successful in casting Trump as the incumbent. (See: Shulmaven: The Turning Point in the Election and Shulmaven: A Realigning Anti-Incumbent Election)       She obviously failed in that task. We also thought that the Democrats would retake the House, which is still possible, but unlikely. Our Senate call had the Republicans ending up with 52 seats: they ended up with 53.   

What we did get right was that the election would signal a major realignment in American politics. We wrote “Simply put, the Republican Party, by eating into the Democrats hold on Black and Latino voters, has put together a broad multi-racial working-class party with a strong populist bent. This is a far cry from the business and country club-oriented party of two decades ago. Lurking behind all of this is an ever-widening gender gap.” 

 

We also wrote: “At least to me, if Harris loses Pennsylvania, her biggest mistake would be not picking Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate (See: Shulmaven: Kamala Harris Fails Her First Test with VP Pick)  and her failure to counter Trump’s attack on her position supporting federally paid for gender reassignment surgeries.” Both of these points were spot on. Finally, we noted: “I also have a hunch that the election might not be as close as the polls suggest. It is equally likely that either candidate will receive more than 300 electoral votes.”

Harris lost because her one-billion-dollar campaign and the near full support of the propaganda arms of the state, were insufficient to overcome the underlying fundamentals of the race which were:

1. Inflation is the graveyard of administrations.

2. 70% of voters thought we were on the wrong track.

3. The Biden-Harris Administration had a 40% approval ranting.

4. She failed to counter Trumps ads attacking her support for federal funding for gender assignment surgery for prisoners and immigrants held in custody.

5. Her much-vaunted ground game was over-rated.

Further she made two unforced errors. She failed to appear at the Al Smith Dinner and didn’t accept Joe Rogan’s invitation to appear on his podcast.

Perhaps most interesting the election, contrary to earlier thinking, where women fearful of losing their reproductive rights would drive turnout, instead turnout was driven by a wave of noncollege educated men of all races. It is this group that is driving the realignment towards the Republican Party. Also, of note in the deep blue states of New York, New Jersey and Virginia, Trump’s share of the vote surged. The blue governing philosophy is failing. Net Net. The Democratic Party is in a world of hurt relegating itself to be the voice of a cloistered college educated elite led around by its nose by the mainstream media and the boorish snobs of the faculty lounge.