My Amazon Review of Daniel Todman's "Britain's War: A New World, 1942-1947"

The High Cost of Victory

This is British historian Daniel Todman’s second volume of his history of Britain’s involvement in World War II. Like his first volume it is way too long (976 pages in the print edition) and way too detailed for the lay reader. (See:  https://shulmaven.blogspot.com/2017/01/my-amazon-review-of-daniel-todmans.html )                                                                                                       Nevertheless there is much to be learned for the dogged reader.

The book opens in early 1942 with Britain on the run everywhere. Singapore falls, the Japanese navy runs riot in the Indian Ocean, Rommel rules Africa, and the German army was just barely halted at the gates of Moscow. But underneath the radar the Labour Party was actively preparing for the postwar world. Todman is convincing that the root of Labour’s surprising success in the 1945 election had its origins with the cradle to the grave welfare state proposed by the Beveridge Report, the socialization of the economy under the exigencies of wartime planning and the complete discrediting of the Tory appeasement policy of the interwar years. To top it off Churchill was rightfully far more interested in winning the war than in party building. The Tories were adrift and Labour had focus.

Aside from presenting the high diplomacy of the Big Three, Todman delves into British life on the home front, the impact of the million American soldiers on the small island, the battlefield conditions facing the average soldier, the importance of air power as a defensive force rather than an offensive one and of the generally unsung battles against the Japanese in Burma. 

The war ends with Britain broke with Keynes going hat in hand to Washington to seek needed credits and with Britain in strategic retreat in Greece, India and Palestine. Simply put the empire which was having difficulties before the war was completely overstretched after it. All of this was foreshadowed at the Tehran conference in 1943 where Stalin and Roosevelt took charge of the war over the protests of Churchill.

Although Todman highlights the horrors of the Nazi concentration camps he has little sympathy for the displaced European Jews seeking refuge in Palestine. He is also way too sympathetic to the Labour government’s social reforms and nationalizations of industry. Of course many reforms were necessary, but it was the Labour policies that were at the heart of Britain becoming the “sick man of Europe” over the next 30 years.

I know this review hasn’t done justice to Todman’s all-encompassing book. I only highlighted a few of the insights I got out his book and a few of my criticisms. It is a long slog, but as I mentioned at the start there is much to be learned here.

For the full amazon URL see: https://www.amazon.com/review/R2GNCCLBEWQH7U/ref=pe_1098610_137716200_cm_rv_eml_rv0_rv

Criminal Negligence in the White House

In late December and early January intelligence reports coming in from the CIA, NIH, and the CDC clearly indicated that the coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China had the potential to trigger a global pandemic. In late January the Department of Health and Human Services dismissed an urgent warning from Dr. Rick Bright, the head of the Biomedical Advanced Research
Authority (BARDA) and now whistle blower, that there would be critical shortage of N-95 respirator masks. Further the administration dragged its feet on vaccine development.

In late January Congress was briefed on the potential for pandemic. It now appears that Senate Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr was so shaken that he is now under investigation for selling a boatload of his personal stock holdings. We note that the White House had all of the information given in the briefing. All the White House did was impose a limited travel ban on China in early February and it continued to pooh-pooh the dangers of the coronavirus throughout February.  It failed to act until it was way too late in mid-March.

What we have here is a massive intelligence failure. The White House had all of the information and failed to act. This is not a case of incompetence; it is a case of criminal negligence and  President Donald Trump should be held accountable. My guess is that a 9/11 type commission will be formed next year and all of the sordid details will come out.

My Amazon Review of Mike Davis' and John Wiener's "Set the Night on Fire: L.A. in the Sixties"

1960's LA Through Red-Tinted Glasses

Mike Davis and John Wiener have given us a way too long (800 pages in the print edition) history of the rise of the Left in the Los Angeles of the 1960's. In telling us everything they researched and remembered it is hard for the lay reader to separate the important from the incidental. The book would have been greatly helped by a sharp-penciled editor.

In the interests of full disclosure I knew Mike Davis in the early 1970's and had more than a passing participation in the political and cultural events the authors discuss. In May 1965 I watched the late and great Little Richard perform at the California Club in Watts. Two months later Watts burned in the rebellion. The small group I was with were the only white people in the audience. Later in January 1967 I watched The Doors at Whisky-A-Go-Go “set the night on fire.”  To be sure I lived in the sun, sand and surf Los Angeles, not in its racism plagued underbellies of South Central and East Los Angeles.

To me the main theme of the book is that Los Angeles was in the vanguard of the peace, women’s, gay rights, African-American and Chicano movements of the 1960's and that members, of which Davis was one, former members and friends of the Communist Party were in the leadership vanguard. Indeed Davis was mentored by the doyenne of Los Angeles communists, Dorothy Healey. As an aside why anyone would join the Communist Party in 1968 is beyond me. From my small vantage point I just didn’t see all that communist influence and if it were true it would make believable all of the right wing paranoid fantasies of that era.

Where the book is good is its description of the US-Black Panther rivalry of that time that led to the assassination of two members of the Panthers on the UCLA campus and the intense pressure put on the Panthers by the F.B.I. It is particularly good at describing the risings in African-American and Latino high schools protesting the racism of their teachers and administrators. The authors also note that the police raid on the gay Black Cat Tavern predated Stonewall by two years.

What the book lacks is the music. It misses the spirit of the age which was typified by sex, drugs and rock ‘n roll. It is way too serious because many of us had smiles on our faces and songs in our hearts. Importantly the book lacks any discussion on the impact of the SDS split on 1969 on the overall movement and there is no after-action report as to why things fell apart. To use the language of the day there is really no criticism/self-criticism. Simply put what went wrong?

Further many of the ideas promoted by the Left of today and now I view as reactionary. Davis and Wiener talk about the coming of the Crawford decision which implemented crosstown busing in Los Angeles which intensified the racial polarization of the city. Instead of advocating for ethnic studies programs in the universities which led the way to marginal degrees, the movement should have advocated for stronger curriculums with emphasis on math, science and economics.  But alas that did not happen.

I am sure better books will be written on the Los Angeles of the 1960's, but if a reader wants to slog through all 800 pages they will get the big picture with way too much minutia thrown in.

For the full Amazon URL see: https://www.amazon.com/review/R46U3E2PHN8UW/ref=pe_1098610_137716200_cm_rv_eml_rv0_rv

My Interview with Greystone on the Post-Covid Apartment Outlook

UCLA Economist: Market Outlook Post-Coronavirus

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has touched every corner of the world and impacted every industry throughout the United States, has left an indelible mark on the economy. Greystone spoke with David Shulman, a senior economist with UCLA Anderson Forecast, part of the University’s Anderson School of Management, about his predictions for how COVID-19 may change the commercial real estate landscape.

Q. What is the outlook for CRE in 2020-21? Are there some sectors that will perform better than others?

A. The multifamily sector is better off than property sectors such as retail and hotels. Probably the one sector that may be most impacted is senior housing. The industrial sector is good so far, and for offices there are long-run questions about how businesses will change their configurations or allow more people to work remotely.

The multifamily sector came into the year strong. Rents were going up and most owners were happy campers. The big risk they were facing was regulatory issues such as rent control. The pandemic has exacerbated that with things like the moratorium on evictions New York City’s legislature is considering extending the moratorium for the entire year.

Q. How is the virus and the financial fallout from the shutdown economy expected to impact multifamily owners and managers?

A. In the near term, there will be pressure on apartment owners because of the wave of unemployment. But they will be OK if they are not overleveraged. Rents will be under pressure all year, but the industry was coming into the year in good shape. A one-year setback is not that big a deal because even if rents fall a little now, occupancy should stay strong.

One long-term outcome could be more regulations leaning towards tenants and away from landlords. We won’t see a ‘no evictions’ policy forever, but we’re likely to see it become much more difficult for landlords to evict tenants.

Q. What should multifamily owners do now to position themselves for a return to normal?

A. Apartment owners and managers need to figure out how to do digital marketing to attract new tenants. They also need to be hypersensitive about cleaning their buildings and letting people know they are doing it. The last thing anyone wants is a COVID-19 outbreak in their building, so they need to use special equipment to disinfect everything.

To keep their tenants, landlords need to be proactive about dealing with people. Maybe they can defer the rent or make a deal. It is better to get 50 percent of the rent for four months vs. none, especially if the tenants are unlikely to be able to pay their back rent after a few months.

Q. What lessons from previous crises can help apartment owners and investors?

A. This situation is so different that you really cannot take many lessons from previous crises. The great recession was more of a slow-motion train wreck that lasted for years. This is hitting a wall all at once.

After 9/11, I predicted that big companies would want their headquarters to be in a nondescript office in a suburban office park, but I was 100 percent wrong about that.

One question is where people will choose to live if they can work remotely. They may choose to work from Nashville or somewhere rather than an expensive coastal city.

The other question is whether people will want to move to the suburbs or to a smaller town. The big cities could be perceived as giant petri dishes for this virus. If that is what people are thinking, this could be better for investors in smaller midrise apartments in the suburbs. But that is a question for 2021 or 2022.

Q. Are there differences in expectations for mid-size multifamily owners compared to larger owners?

A. Smaller buildings and smaller investors are likely to be hit harder by unemployment because they may have fewer tenants who can pay rent. They will be especially hard hit if they are overleveraged.

In the higher-end luxury buildings, which tend to be owned by larger investors, most tenants paid their rent in April. The impact of unemployment is much worse on people with lower paying jobs and those are the people more likely to rent in smaller, more affordable buildings.

Q. What should developers anticipate about the availability of capital for investments?

A. There will be capital to invest. We are in a zero-rate world, so if you buy something at five percent, that is good. But the market needs to know what net operating income (NOI) will be in 2021. Once that is known, we will see lots more investment. The longer the economic shutdown goes on, the harder it will be to come back. If things start to return to normal this summer, we will see more investment faster. It may be that investor appetite will be greater for less urban areas and for cities other than gateway cities, but that is still a big unknown.

Greystone link: https://www.greyco.com/insight/ucla-economist-economic-outlook-post-coronavirus/