Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Biden Rises from the Dead

Left for dead a week ago Joe Biden swept from victory to victory on Super Tuesday. His coalition was built on very strong support from African-Americans and suburban white women. That coalition proved durable throughout the south, Texas, Minnesota and yes, Elizabeth Warren's Massachusetts. To be sure Bernie Sanders was correct in the notion that he would bring new voters into the process, but those new voters turned out in size to vote against him. He reminds me of an old business acquaintance of mine who created a massive a disparate coalition around him, unfortunately he got people who never agreed on anything to turn against him.

Yes, Sanders did well in California and Colorado where there were a large proportion of Hispanic voters, but not as well as the earlier polls predicted. Biden will have his work cut out for him to bring this large voting bloc into the fold. His problem will be, as my very lovely and very brilliant wife informed me, is that throughout Latin America there seems to be a proclivity for populists on the Left (Chavez) and populists on the Right (Peron). Sanders seems to be benefiting from this historical connection.

On the other hand there is much that voters don't know about Sanders and when they find out they will be far from pleased. For example Sanders views Medicare for All as a compromise from the complete nationalization of the entire healthcare industry, doctors included. He is also against private charity because he believes that the government should fulfill all of society's responsibilities to the poor. I wonder how all the Sanders supporters who work in nonprofits will feel about that.

The primary season is not over, but if Tuesday's results hold Biden should be able to do very well in Florida and Arizona and beat Sanders in Michigan, a state he won against Hillary in 2016. Thus the way is open for him to go into the Democratic convention in Milwaukee with a clear majority.

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