Wednesday, July 25, 2018

My Amazon Review of Marc Ambinder's "The Brink: President Reagan and the Nuclear War Scare of 1983"


Eyeball to Eyeball

Marc Ambinder tells a tension packed Cold War story as to how the United States and the Soviet Union faced off against each during 1982-84 when war fears were at their height. He does this against the backdrop of the NATO “Able Archer 83” war game where the NATO forces were defending Germany against a Warsaw Pact invasion. He uses the war game exercise to bring in all of the command and control issues associated with a Soviet nuclear first strike down to the level of the local army commanders who control tactical nuclear weapons on the ground. He also brings in the role of spies on both sides trying to understand the intentions of their opponents. One of the best was Oleg Gordievsky who, before being betrayed, rose to be the KGB Rezidentura in London. Quite a coup for MI-6.

Recall those were the years where the Soviets deployed intermediate range nuclear missiles and NATO countered with its own deployment. The latter giving rise to Soviet supported anti-American demonstrations throughout Europe. In 1983 President Reagan delivered his “evil empire” speech by noting that the Soviet Union “was the focus of evil in the modern world” and shot down Korean Airline Flight 007 when it strayed into their air space. As an aside I thought contemporaneously the Reagan speech was one of his best. 1983 also brought with it the ABC movie “The Day After” which highlighted the impact of a nuclear attack on Kansas City. My wife and I watched it in horror.

I was pleased to see how well Ambinder treats President Reagan and Secretary of State George Schultz. Despite his Cold War rhetoric Reagan sought to understand Soviet motivations and brought in academics and read Russian history to get a sense as to why the Soviets would fear a first strike by the United States. All he needed was a partner and he finally got that partner with Michael Gorbachev.

Ambinder goes into a great deal of the United States’ command and control structure in the event of nuclear war. The logic of nuclear war practically dictated a first strike because the command and control after a nuclear strike would be chaotic. I wish he would have quoted that great geopolitical strategist, Mike Tyson, who said, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”  When reading about the procedures involving our nuclear codes, it scared the living daylights out of me to think that Donald Trump is anywhere near close to them.

My few criticisms of the book is that Ambinder should have given a chapter backdrop about the Soviet nuclear buildup during the 1970s and the legitimate fear it raised in the United States. He goes after what he calls “the nuclear priesthood” without going into real detail. Although he mentions the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, nowhere in his book does mention the critical role played by its leader, Andrew Marshall. Those criticisms aside, Marc Ambinder has written a well-researched history where small miscalculations could have led to nuclear war.





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