Wednesday, March 16, 2016

The Fed Will Get the Inflation it Wants

Bye bye data dependence. The data were there for the Fed to make
hawkish comments; core inflation is moving up (now 2.3% yoy on core CPI) and the economy is operating at full employment. Nevertheless the Fed chose to punt by cutting back on its outlook for future rate hikes. Why? It looks like the FOMC members want to over-shoot their 2% inflation target and light a fire under wages. They will soon get their wish.

In response materials and energy led the charge on the stock market, the dollar weakened and the yield on the 2-year note collapsed. It would seem to this observer that TIPS make a great deal of sense today.

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