Thursday, January 7, 2016

Trump and the Stock Market: Connect the Dots

Since the start of the year the Chinese stock market has fallen out of bed and that has led to a worldwide fall in stock prices. According to the commentariat the reason for China collapse has to do with a growth slowdown in China, a devaluation of the Yuan and a relaxation of the restrictions on stock sales by large shareholders.

However something more fundamental maybe at work. Perhaps the Chinese market is now pricing in a Trump victory and with that the potential to wreak havoc with the global trading system. Should that happen the biggest loser would be China, but that would blow-back to the entire global economy. Not a pretty picture. Moreover with Hillary Clinton now opposed to the TPP the outlook for trade expansion is far from favorable.

Too many people I know joke about Trump, but the fact remains has consistently led the GOP field and he has to be viewed as having at least a 50/50 shot of getting the nomination. We may not pay attention, but the rest of the world certainly is.

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