A Quick Note on General Motors and the UAW Strike

 I am not expert enough to weigh in completely on the current UAW strike against the Big 3. However I would note that the automobile companies are arguing that they need the high profits they are now earning to fund their development of electric vehicles. On the surface this makes sense, but given that General Motors' current $5 billion share buyback program does not make sense. That money should be going into electric vehicle development.

In another era, way back in 1954, General Motors sold $350 million dollars in new stock to fund the development and the production of new vehicles. Thus, if GM were really serious about electric vehicles it would be selling stock, not buying back their stock from existing shareholders.

My Review* of Daniel Kraus' "Whalefall"

Jay and the Whale

 

Chapter Two of the Book of Jonah opens with “The Lord provided a huge fish to swallow Jonah; and Jonah remained in the fish’s belly three days and three nights.” Here we have 17-year-old diver Jay Gardiner being swallowed by a 60-foot sperm whale and he has far less than three days to get out. Author Daniel Kraus weaves a terrifying story of Jay’s attempts to free himself from the belly of the whale. Along the way we learn much about the anatomy of a sperm whale and learn about all of the flotsam that is nestled there, including a Brillo box that will become important later in the story.

 

The book is far more than a Jonah story because through the use of flashbacks we learn much about Jay’s troubled relationship with his father Mitt, also a diver, and his family. The reason for Jay’s dive that morning into Monterey Bay, an area I know well, is to find the bones of his dead father who committed suicide after a bout with cancer. And while in the whale, Jay reconciles with his late father.

 

I started reading this book on a long flight in a dark cabin over the Atlantic. It reached a point where the story was so terrifying that, in the darkness, I had to put it down. I didn’t finish until I returned home. All told, Knaus tells an adventure story with a strong human touch. Because there are 550 reviews already posted on Amazon, I have kept my review to a minimum. 

*- Amazon has yet again failed to post my review in a timely manner. Posted by amazon a week late on 9/16. See: Jay and the Whale (amazon.com)

J.M. Smucker's Dumb Deal to Buy Hostess Brands

I am a 50-year shareholder of J.M. Smucker (SJM) and I have seen them make some great deals (Folgers Coffee $3.3 billion in 2008) and some horrible deals (Big Heart Pet Brands $5.3 billion in 2015), but their planned $5.6 billion acquisition of Twinkie maker Hostess Brands (TWNK) takes the cake. This deal is dumb on strategic and valuation grounds and family scion Paul H. Smucker is probably turning over in his grave.

It staggers the mind too think that when the sweetened snack industry is being riled by the prospect of a new class of weight loss drugs that will drive a dagger into the industry's business model, SJM decides to pay a huge premium (54% price unaffected) for TWNK, perhaps the most vulnerable company in that sector.

Compounding the strategic mistake SJM is paying a huge 17X EBITDA on 2023 numbers and an estimate 13X on SJM's estimate (aggressive in my opinion) of 2024 results allowing for synergies. To me it makes no sense for SJM which was trading at 11X EBITDA to buy a far worse business at 17X EBITDA. Further SJM compounds the problem by levering up to the gills with planned financing approximating $5 billion. That borrowing with raise its Debt/EBITDA ratio from a modest 2.2X to a junk level 4.5X. Simply put, expect SJM's P/E ratio to contract. It is no accident that SJM is trading down 7% intraday.

My Amazon Review of Christopher Rufo's "America's Cultural Revolution: How the Radical Left Conquered Everything"

Racial Marxism

Christopher Rufo, a leading agent provocateur of the Right, has written a deeply researched intellectual history of how the political culture of the 1960’s Left became dominant in 21^st century America. Rufo traces today’s diversity, equity, inclusion (DEI) and antiracism training back to the ideas of Herbert Marcuse, Angela Davis, Paulo Freire, and Derrick Bell. Thus, there is a straight line from the cultural revolution of 1968 to the “wokism” of 2015 and beyond.

 

To me Rufo’s ideas ring true because as a young leftist of that era I first heard the terms “the long march through the institutions” and “white skin privilege” in the early 1970’s. According to Rufo the Left’s long march first succeeded in establishing university ethnic studies programs, then on to the education schools and soon enough the entire liberal arts were largely controlled by far-left ideologues. After the universities, came the newsrooms, the media and corporate HR departments.

 

Frankfurt school philosopher Herbert Marcuse is the founding father of racial Marxism. Marcuse gave up on the working class as the motive force for revolution and substituted militant minorities.  If you want to know why the Democratic Party lost the working class, you can do no worse than reading Marcuse. Instead having the white revolutionaries of the 1960’s we now have the limousine liberals and middle-class feminists linking us with urban minorities to form the guts of the Democratic coalition.

 

Rufo then goes on to Marcuse student Angela Davis who became the paragon of Black liberation. Her support of the Black Panthers was legendary and according to Rufo there is a straight line from the Panthers to Black Lives Matter. Her “kill the pigs” would become “defund the police” fifty years later.

 

Indeed, in the early 1970’s the white left was so enthralled with the Panthers that is took political direction from them. Further Davis was a stone-cold communist who followed the Soviet party line to the bitter end. Part of Davis’s politics was to destroy such icons of American history as Washington, Jefferson, and Lincoln to make white’s feel ashamed of their country.

 

I never heard of Paulo Friere before reading this book. His contribution was to emphasize education as a way to revolution. His “Pedagogy of the Oppressed” is one of most widely cited books in academia. We see his ideas in school curricula designed to make white children uncomfortable about their heritage. This is not about teaching real history, but rather bending it to a leftist ideology.

 

His last ideologist of the Left is Harvard Law professor Derrick Bell who started to develop critical race theory in the early 1970’s. Bell is a racial pessimist because white people are inherently oppressors because of their “privilege.” Although not stated, it seems that under critical race theory the entire white population has to go through Maoist-style re-education camps. Don’t laugh, there are all kinds of institutional programs that are doing modified versions of this.

 

Rufo ends his book on an upbeat note. He is, after all, a counter revolutionary. As a trustee at Florida’s New College, he is working do away with a host of sham departments that cover for leftist organizing and doing away with its DEI programs. Eliminating DEI is essential to Rufo. His program can be summarized as “equality over equity, dignity over inclusion, and order over chaos.” As a personal note I stopped giving money to UCLA because, like many universities, the school required a personal statement in support of DEI in order to be hired or promoted. Simply put, a 21^st century loyalty oath.

 

Although polemical, Rufo has written a serious book that should be read by policy makers and the public alike. In order to make the needed changes we have to know how we got here.

 For the full Amazon URL see: Racial Marxism (amazon.com) 

Shulmaven Banned from Twitter (X)

Shulmaven was banned from Twitter (X) this morning for posting the comment "Circular firing squad" on Betsy Woodruff Swan's article on the Hunter Biden litigation. (See: In talks with prosecutors, Hunter Biden’s lawyers vowed to put the president on the stand - POLITICO ) Twitter said I violated their rules against "violent speech."  Give me a break. To call me out for this means, that given all of the hate speech and porn now on Twitter, something is really rotten in that organization.

Elon, get a life and fix this before it is too late! Meantime, dear readers,  boycott X.

My Amazon Review of Alan Philps' "The Red Hotel: Moscow 1941, The Metropol Hotel......."

A Failure of Journalism 

We last ran into the Metropol Hotel in Amor Towles’ “A Gentleman in Moscow.” (See:        My Amazon Review of Amor Towles' "A Gentleman in Moscow")  Here we revisit the hotel as the home of foreign journalists covering the Eastern Front during World War II. We meet such stalwarts Quentin Reynolds, Margaret Bourke-White, Walter Kerr, Cyrus Sulzberger, and Edgar Snow among others. They are all there to cover the war under the very strict hands of Soviet censorship. Hence, for the most part, they have become organs of Soviet Propaganda.

 

The journalists are aided by a corps of female interpreters who in addition to there nominal duties are there to spy, influence and sometimes perform sexual services for mostly male reporters. One of those interpreters was Nadya Ulanovskaya who with her husband Alex are the true protagonists of the book. Both Nadya and Alex as teenagers were revolutionaries in 1917 and, in fact, they met Stalin. After the revolution both move up in nomenklatura and by 1926 they are working as GRU agents in China under the legendary master spy, Richard Sorge. (See: Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Owen Matthews' "An Impeccable Spy: Richard Sorge, Stalin's Master Agent )

 

By 1932 Alex had moved over to the NKVD and worked as its rezident in New York. In that capacity he recruited Whitaker Chambers who years later would blow the whistle on the Soviet spy ring in the United States. (See: Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Calder Walten's "Spies: The Epic Intelligence War Between East and West" )

However, by the late 1930’s both are disillusioned with communism and are initially saved from the purges by an old friend from the NKVD. Nadya worked for Australian journalist Godfrey Blunden. She travels with the journalistic crew to see what the Soviets want them to see at the front. The journalists live high on the hog while all of Russia is starving. Author Alan Philps gives us a great sense of the fear in Moscow as Hitler’s armies approached as the journalist were evacuated further east.

 

Nadya’s luck runs out in 1948 when she is arrested. It seems the KGB figured out that she was the protagonist in a novel Blunden wrote. She spends time in Lubyanka, Lefortovo and the Gulag and serves eight years. She is released early under Khrushchev's general amnesty. I didn’t realize what a big deal that was. Also released were her husband and daughter.

 

She immediately acts as a rebel by being a leader in “samizdat” movement which published previously forbidden tracts. Ultimately, she and her daughter move to Israel.

 

What we learn from Philp’s book is that journalists working under dictatorships cannot really do an honest job. In this case the journalists in Russia lived on their expense accounts, paid no taxes and eagerly awaited writing books that would bring them a royalty stream. To write out of line would mean having their visas revoked. Thus, in no way could they be considered independent. This is a lesson for a reader of reports emanating from Russia, Iran, China, and Palestine. Take all of them with more than a few grains of salt. Witness what happened to Evan Gershkovich now imprisoned in Russia.

 

Alan Philps has done a great service to the memory of Nadya Ulanovskaya and has written a work of history that today’s journalists should not forget.

For the full Amazon URL see: A Failure of Journalism (amazon.com)

 

My Amazon Review of Calder Walten's "Spies: The Epic Intelligence War Between East and West"

 Intelligence Wars

I normally frown on long books, but Calder Walten’s book weighing in at 688 pages is an exception. In this deeply sourced book Walten covers the 100-year East vs. West spy war starting with the formation of the Cheka in 1918 and its nontrivial influence on history. Like it or not the West has been at war with the Russians from the beginning and if you want a later date for the start of the Cold War you can use 1943 with the emergence of the Cambridge Five occupying high posts in the British security services and the atomic spy ring at Los Alamos.

The initial Soviet target was the British, but with the U.S. recognition of the USSR in 1933 the way was open for the NKVD and the GRU to establish outposts in the U.S. via their embassy and consulates and with the formation of AMTORG, the Soviet trading corporation. From this modest beginning came high placed spies including Alger Hiss, Lawrence Duggan Laughlin Currie and Harry Dexter White. And working with the U.S Communist Party, an error in tradecraft, the Soviets recruited the Rosenberg spy ring. Indeed, had Henry Wallace become President his choices for Secretaries of State and Treasury were Duggan and White, respectively making for a true horror show.

For the most part both the U.S. and Britain were oblivious to the Soviet threat through World War II. A case in point is that the atomic spy, physicist, and German communist Klaus Fuchs was cleared by British intelligence. In fact, the British were prohibited from spying on the Soviets and the U.S. OSS was riddled with Soviet Agents. On the U.S. side the one hero in the piece was FBI chief J. Edgar Hoover who was alert to the spying threat. (See: Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Howard Blum's "In the Enemy's House: The Secret Saga of the FBI Agent and the Code Breaker who Caught the Russian Spies")  Based on the information coming from his spies, atomic spies, Stalin authorized the start of the Soviet nuclear program while the Battle of Stalingrad was going on. Stalin was thinking ahead to the postwar rivalry.

 

As good as Soviet spying was on Britain and the U.S. it objectively failed with respect to Germany because Stalin refused to believe the warnings coming from his intelligence apparatus. He even ignored the clear warnings from his super spy in Japan, Richard Sorge. (See: Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Owen Matthews' "An Impeccable Spy: Richard Sorge, Stalin's Master Agent )

 

So successful was the Russian spying, especially through to the efforts of Cambridge Five member Kim Philby as MI6 liaison to the CIA, was that Stalin knew about America’s intelligence efforts before President Harry Truman. Indeed, Kim Philby was best buddies with James Angleton, the head of the CIA’s counterintelligence division.

 

This is not to say that the U.S. and Britain were asleep. The U.S. developed Oleg Penkovsky as an asset in Moscow. He was extraordinarily helpful during the Cuban missile crisis by informing Kennedy about the limited number of missiles that were operational in the Soviet Union. The British had Oleg Gordievsky, a high KGB official, who while in London briefed both Gorbachev and Thatcher on the eve of their first meeting in 1985. ( Shulmaven: My Amazon Review of Ben Macintyre's "The Spy and the Traitor: The Greatest Espionage Story of the Cold )  It was also Gordievsky who alerted the West that Russia truly feared that the U.S. was about to launch a preventive war during the Able Archer exercises in late 1983. Reagan took note of that and cooled his hot rhetoric that came from his “Evil Empire” speech earlier that year.

 

Walten also tells of the CIA’s paranoia in fearing nationalist uprisings as the vanguard of a communist revolution in the global south. Big mistakes were made in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. However, he does not that it was the weak Chilean economy and the army and not the CIA who overthrew Allende in 1973. Both the CIA and the KGB were playing cat and mouse with each other in that country.

 

Walten covers far more than spies. Aside from HUMINT, he discusses signal intelligence (SIGINT), electronic intelligence (ELINT) and image intelligence (IMint). I learned that Dr. Edwin Land, the founder of Polaroid, came up with the idea of using high resolution photography that became the basis of first the U-2 spy plane and later satellite imagery. The U-2 that was shot down over Russia in 1959 was accomplished through the use of a proximity fuse that was obtained from the Rosenberg spy ring.

 

I also learned that the dissolution of the Soviet Union did not turn off Russian spying. The KGB reformed as the FSB and the SVR and used such highly placed agents as Aldrich Ames in the CIA and John Walker in FBI counterintelligence. The damage these two caused was incalculable including the fingering of Gordievsky who escaped Russia by the skin of his teeth.  It seems that Clinton did not care about intelligence, but the new Russia plowed ahead. Walten discusses how the War on Terror diverted resources away from Russia and China to the West’s detriment.  Of course, it goes without saying that the Russian security services played a nontrivial role in the 2016 and 2020 elections. However, he does note the U.S. success in calling attention to Russia’s planned invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 which prevented a Russian false flag operation.

 

Walten ends his book with a discussion on China whose Ministry of State Security represents a far greater threat than the KGB/GRU ever represented. China’s espionage is across the board that involves stealing corporate secrets, cyber warfare, SIGINT, and the use HUMINT, in particular involving Chinese nationals in the U.S.  Remember the Russians were never an economic threat; China is thereby defending against its commercial spying critical.

 

Calder Walten’s well-written book is true public service. He highlights the fact that we live in a dangerous world where, as they say, eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.

For the full Amazon URL see: Intelligence Wars (amazon.com)