My Amazon Review of Niall Ferguson's "Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe"

 

Autopsies of Disaster

 

Niall Ferguson, the global jet-setter historian based at Stanford’s Hoover Institution has written a long and somewhat disjointed book on politics of disasters. It is really three books:

1    1) An analysis of prior disasters,

2    2) A history of the past 120 years,

3    3)  His speculations about the future of U.S./China relations.

 

He starts his book discussing his travels to and from 2021 Davos meeting and points beyond. In essence he was a potential super-spreader of COVID 19. He ends up being holed up in Montana with his family where he wrote this book. He finished the book in August 2020, not knowing how bad the pandemic would get over the next six months. Hence he was way too complacent in comparing COVID-19 with the 1957 flu epidemic.

 

To make his points he uses network theory and fractal geometry to explain prior catastrophes. He is especially acute in discussing the 1918 Spanish Flu, the Challenger disaster, the Irish famine, Chernobyl, and the Battle of the Somme. In all he points to the fact that although many disasters appear to be natural, there are significant human causes associated with them. These could either be population concentrations in flood zones of massive bureaucratic failures to understand the nature of the challenges they faced. The latter was especially acute with respect to the Challenger and Chernobyl.

 

In his discussion of our future relations Ferguson believes we are now in Cold War 2.0. There was one very especially acute statement made by Chinese political theorist Jiang Shigong who noted “The Anglo-American Empire is unravelling internally beset by three unsolvable problems. The ever-increasing inequality created by the liberal economy…ineffective governance caused by political liberalism, and decadence and nihilism created by cultural liberalism.” That pretty much says it all.

 

Although I was disappointed with Ferguson’s book, it remains a very thought provoking read.

For the full amazon URL see: Autopsies of Disaster (amazon.com)

My Amazon Review of Carlos Ruiz Zafon's "The Shadow in the Wind"

 

Parallel Lives

 

“The Shadow of the Wind” is my current book club selection. I never would have read it were it not for that, but I am so glad I did. Little did I know that it is the best-selling Spanish novel since Don Quixote. The novel evolves around the parallel story of Daniel Sempere who is 10 years old in 1945 when the book begins and the novelist Julian Carax whose story begins in the 1920s. Carax has a teenaged love affair with Penelope while Daniel has his teenaged love affair with Beatriz. They both have a common enemy in Fumero who is an assassin turned policeman.

 

The story begins with Daniel visiting the Cemetery of Dead Books and discovers a Carax novel and he becomes intrigued by it and decides to find out all he can about him. He become quite the detective. Along the way we see pre- and post-Civil War Spain and we can taste the streets of Barcelona where most of the action takes place.

 

We also get great insight from Fermin who becomes Daniel’s accomplice in his adventures. Fermin is a former Republican agent who was discovered as beggar and brought into working at Daniel’s family bookstore. Fermin brings with him quite a few insights and some comic relief.

 

This is a long and complicated book with all kinds of plot twists, but it held my interest throughout. This review hardly does justice to it.  I am so glad that my book club discovered it for me.

For the full Amazon URL see: Parallel Lives (amazon.com)

Rabbi Neil Amswych's Sermon on Israel, Palestine and Hamas 5-14-21

 Below is the link to Rabbi Amswych's sermon as well as his opening comments. Read the whole sermon.

Rabbi Neil's Blog

Praying and Working for Peace in Jerusalem, May 14th 2021

 "As far as I have learned, in 1875, Rabbi Avraham Ashkenazi and Rabbi Meir Auerbach acquired some land from Arab sellers.  In 1946, shortly before Israel’s War of Independence, two Jewish non-governmental organizations moved to register the deed with authorities in what was then British Mandatory Palestine. In 1982, the Palestinian residents of the property – including the parents and grandparents of some of the current occupants – signed an agreement confirming that the Israeli NGOs were the rightful owners. In the early 2000s, these two Israeli non-profits sold the land to the Nahalat Shimon organization. The Palestinians occupying the dwelling were nevertheless allowed to continue living there and enjoyed “Protected Residents” status. However, by law, the tenants were required to pay rent to Nahalat Shimon. It was only after the Palestinian residents refused to do that, and instead illegally expanded the property and rented out spaces to third parties, that Nahalat Shimon initiated eviction proceedings. Before going to court, the Jewish owners of the property and the Palestinian residents almost came to an out-of-court settlement but the Palestinian Authority threatened the Palestinian residents with violence if they agreed to a compromise. It therefore became an intractable legal issue of squatters, and had to go to court....."

See full sermon here: Rabbi Neil's Blog

A Quick Note on the Dichotomy Between Stock Market and Bond Market Views on Inflation

Something strange is going on in the financial markets. With strength in commodity and industrial stocks and weakness in utility and consumer staple stocks, the stock market is acting like a sustained burst in inflation is upon us. However, the bond market remains calm with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields being well-behaved at around 1.6% and with the 10-year break even at modestly above 2% suggesting lower out year inflation than the 5-year break even.

What gives? My answer is simple. The bond market is listening to economists while the stock market is listening to a parade of companies reporting higher prices. To sure some this maybe due to temporary bottle-necks, but the breadth of companies reporting rising prices indicates to me that an inflationary process is well underway. After four months of sequentially 3%+ inflation the bond market and what I would characterize as the "Fed-shilling" economists will come around. 

My Amazon Review of Scott Anderson's "The Quiet Americans: Four Spies at the Dawn of the Cold War..........."

 

The CIA: Present at the Creation

 

Scott Anderson describes the history of the CIA from 1946-1956 through the eyes of four of its founding officers. They are Michael Burke who would go on to be the general manager of the NY Yankees, Peter Sichel an émigré from Nazi Germany who would return to his family’s wine business, Frank Wisner, who become Deputy Director and Edward Lansdale who would be the model for Graham Greene’s “The Quite American.”  All of them previously served with great distinction in the OSS during World War II.

 

Burke and Sichel ran agents into Communist Eastern Europe to no avail. The police states were too strong to allow the infiltrations to work and most died. Wisner witness the horrors of Soviet occupation of Romania and East Berlin which made him a lifelong antagonist to Communism. Lansdale would make his bones as an advisor to a young Filipino congressman who ultimately become its president, Ramon Magsaysay. From there he would go on to advise President Diem in South Vietnam, who unlike Magsaysay would become an autocrat.  Interestingly Lansdale supported the planned Vietnam referendum believing that Diem would actually beat Ho Chi Minh.

 

Anderson is critical of the CIA’s role in the coups in Iran and Guatemala in 1954 which at the time were viewed as great successes. According to Anderson by cozying up to dictators of the Right, America lost its moral authority in the world. Likely true, but what was the alternative?

 

The villains in this piece are President Eisenhower, his secretary of state John Foster Dulles, F.B.I. Director J. Edgar Hoover, and surprisingly, liberal hero George Kennan. He views Kennan as the architect of the secret war against the Soviets which the CIA would play a leading role. He goes after Hoover as bureaucratic enemy of both the OSS and the CIA along with his role in fomenting the red scare and the attack on gays in the government.

 

Most of his vitriol is directed against Eisenhower and Dulles who fail to see an opening to the Soviets first after the death of Stalin and later after Khrushchev’s speech denouncing him. Who knows, maybe the Cold War could have been cut short, not likely in my opinion. He also attacks the “New Look” policy of massive nuclear retaliation as opposed to a gradual response. Well, Kennedy tried a gradual response in Vietnam, and it didn’t work out all that well.

 

Wisner became incensed after the U.S. failed to act in support of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution. After years of calling for rebellion, the U.S. sat idly by as the rebels were slaughtered by Soviet tanks. However, what could the U.S. actually do in the Soviet sphere of influence short of World War III.

 

I would note two intriguing morsels in the book. First, Dulles wanted to provoke a rebellion in East Berlin during a four-power conference that would have led to the slaughter of thousands of innocents. Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed. Second, he discusses how successful Soviet spy Kim Philby was in inveigling himself into the U.S. power structure as the MI-6 liaison to both the CIA and FBI.

 

Anderson tells a great story about the pure physical heroism of his four protagonists and how they did their jobs under extraordinarily difficult circumstances. I only wish he were more nuanced about his policy conclusions.

For the full Amazon URL see: The CIA: Present at the Creation (amazon.com)