Tuesday, January 29, 2019

My Amazon Review of Paul Volcker's "Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government"


A Giant in Monetary Policy

Paul Volcker is literally and figuratively a giant (6 foot 8 inches tall) in monetary policy. His autobiography written with financial journalist Christine Harper rightly puts him at the center of every major monetary event from 1961 when he worked under Robert Roosa in the Kennedy Administration treasury department to his chairing the Federal Reserve Board from 1979-87. He was in the room when the Kennedy Administration was facing the Triffin Dilemma where it was inherent that the U.S. did not have a sufficient gold stock to maintain the long term value of the dollar. He was in the room when Nixon broke with the gold exchange standard and devalued the dollar in 1971.

Volcker is best known for breaking the great 1970s inflation by undertaking a revolution in monetary affairs. Instead of targeting interest rates the Fed in October 1979 targeted the growth in the money supply. Treasury bill rates soared to 17%, long treasury yields peaked at 15% and a recession ensued. But by 1982 he broke the back of inflation with the annual rate of increase in consumer prices plunging from 13% to 4%. Simply put Volcker laid the basis for the Great Moderation that was to follow for the next 25 years. Few would have the stature and the courage to do what Volcker did.

After his service at the Fed Volcker chaired many commissions, most notably settling the reparations issue between the Swiss banks and the holocaust victims and uncovering the corruption in the U.N.’s oil for food program in Iraq. Volcker truly lived a life of public service that was largely inspired by his father’s works as a successful city manager in Cape May and Teaneck New Jersey.

My one quarrel with the book is that Volcker doesn’t really go into detail about the personalities he discussed. For example I would really be curious to know why he endorsed Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary. Nevertheless Volcker’s autobiography places the monetary history of the past 60 years into context. As an aside I had the privilege of meeting him on two separate occasions. He truly is a giant.




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