My Amazon Review of Paul Volcker's "Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government"

A Giant in Monetary Policy

Paul Volcker is literally and figuratively a giant (6 foot 8 inches tall) in monetary policy. His autobiography written with financial journalist Christine Harper rightly puts him at the center of every major monetary event from 1961 when he worked under Robert Roosa in the Kennedy Administration treasury department to his chairing the Federal Reserve Board from 1979-87. He was in the room when the Kennedy Administration was facing the Triffin Dilemma where it was inherent that the U.S. did not have a sufficient gold stock to maintain the long term value of the dollar. He was in the room when Nixon broke with the gold exchange standard and devalued the dollar in 1971.

Volcker is best known for breaking the great 1970s inflation by undertaking a revolution in monetary affairs. Instead of targeting interest rates the Fed in October 1979 targeted the growth in the money supply. Treasury bill rates soared to 17%, long treasury yields peaked at 15% and a recession ensued. But by 1982 he broke the back of inflation with the annual rate of increase in consumer prices plunging from 13% to 4%. Simply put Volcker laid the basis for the Great Moderation that was to follow for the next 25 years. Few would have the stature and the courage to do what Volcker did.

After his service at the Fed Volcker chaired many commissions, most notably settling the reparations issue between the Swiss banks and the holocaust victims and uncovering the corruption in the U.N.’s oil for food program in Iraq. Volcker truly lived a life of public service that was largely inspired by his father’s works as a successful city manager in Cape May and Teaneck New Jersey.

My one quarrel with the book is that Volcker doesn’t really go into detail about the personalities he discussed. For example I would really be curious to know why he endorsed Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary. Nevertheless Volcker’s autobiography places the monetary history of the past 60 years into context. As an aside I had the privilege of meeting him on two separate occasions. He truly is a giant.

The full Amazon URL appears at: https://www.amazon.com/review/R256DRM4L31SUT/ref=pe_1098610_137716200_cm_rv_eml_rv0_rv

My Amazon Review of Yuval Noah Harari's "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind"

Sapiens Rule

I received this book as a gift. As I write this there are 5,488 reviews of Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari’s book. As a result I will be unusually brief. Harari’s history take us through what he characterizes as the three revolutions in the history of humans, cognitive, agricultural and scientific. The success of those revolutions led to the complete domination of humans over the planet which in Harari’s mind resulted in a distinct loss in wellbeing for the other animals on our planet.

What struck me the most was Harari’s view that three most important systems that engendered trust among humans are money, empire and religion. About money he writes this, “Money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised!” With money, empire and religion under assault by modern liberalism, it is no wonder that trust has broken down and it seems socially and politically much of humanity, especially in the West, is at each other’s throats.

Read the other reviews to get a more comprehensive take on the book, but I was certainly glad to read this well thought out and well written book, although not without it faults, on the evolution of humanity.

For the full Amazon URL see: https://www.amazon.com/review/RWR0E2WTCALWP/ref=pe_1098610_137716200_cm_rv_eml_rv0_rv

My Amazon Review of Andrew Roberts' "Churchill: Walking with Destiny"

Tory Democrat

Andrew Roberts has written what most critics have characterized as  Churchill’s best biography. I am not qualified to know whether it is the best, but it is certainly very good and remains interesting throughout its length. What impressed me most about Churchill was his raw physical courage. He saw combat in India, the Sudan, South Africa where he escaped from a POW camp and the trenches of World War I. He also demonstrated his physical stamina when he was over 60 to fly to France when it was being over-run and on his many trips to Russia and America for wartime meetings. Roberts brings out this important Churchill quality.

Although known as a conservative later in life, in his early years he was a flaming liberal by helping to orchestrate the historic People’s Budget of 1909. There he helped introduce the welfare state to Britain and worked to curtail the power of the House of Lords, hence the term Tory Democrat.

As World War I approached he recognized the evils of Prussian militarism and the importance of oil for the British Navy as he bought controlling interest in Anglo-Iranian Oil (the BP of today). Early on in the War he understood that a revolution in military affairs was underway with the coming of aircraft, tanks and submarines. As an aside in the early 1920s well ahead of practically everyone he foresaw the potential for an atomic bomb. Roberts keenly brings out Churchill’s interest in science and technology.

Of course Churchill’s big failure was the 1915 Gallipoli campaign which ended in tragedy for the British and their ANZAC allies. But he did learn one very important lesson that no matter how good a strategy is, its execution depends upon the operational details which in the case of Gallipoli ensured a disaster.

Aside from being right on Prussian militarism, Churchill was dead right on the odiousness of Russia under Lenin and Stalin and of course we remember him weaponizing the English language is his early opposition to Hitler, against the bulk of his Conservative Party, and his great speeches during the war. Simply put, Churchill got the big things right and saved England and the world.

Where Roberts fails in his biography is that he is too cavalier about Churchill’s two major domestic policy mistakes. As Chancellor of Exchequer in 1925 he return Britain to the gold standard at its pre-war level, a valuation that proved to be way to high crippling British industry. And again in the early 1950s he bought labor peace by giving into the trade unions thereby accelerating Britain’s industrial decline.

Where Roberts is very good is in his discussion of Churchill’s daily life where he was way too extravagant leading to consistent money problems until the late 1940s which were exacerbated by untimely stock market speculations. He was philo-Semitic when most of Britain’s upper classes were anti-Semitic and he supported the Zionist project in Palestine. Although he had a rough exterior he was warm and loving to his friends and family.

This review only scratches the surface of Roberts’ remarkable book. I highly recommend it for its insights into one of the giant personalities of our time and to get a sense of how the world we live in came into being.

For the full Amazon URL see: https://www.amazon.com/review/R1PYSTO3WF5RTX/ref=pe_1098610_137716200_cm_rv_eml_rv0_rv

A Simple Solution to End the Partial Government Shutdown

The federal government has been in a partial shutdown mode for over a week as President Trump fights with congressional Democrats over funding for a border wall. Trump wants to fulfill is campaign promise to build a wall and the Democrats believe that the wall would be a waste of money and signal a strong bias against immigration. Meantime hundreds of thousands of government workers and the services they provide are being held hostage to this dispute.

There is however a simple solution. The Democrats should agree to appropriate $2-$5 billion for a wall, but that appropriation would be contingent on Mexico cutting a check to pay for it. After all this is exactly what President Trump campaigned on. Of course Mexico isn't going to pay for the wall. As a result Trump would win in form and the Democrats would win on the the substance. A win-win that would reopen  the government.